The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
The longest season in PGA Tour history, one that spanned 12 months and included six majors, comes to a close this week at the Tour Championship.
Only 30 players remain for the finale at East Lake Golf Club, which has hosted this event every year of the FedEx Cup era. The winner will receive a whopping $15 million in addition to the season-long hardware, but for the third straight year there are starting strokes to factor into the handicap.
[[ad:athena]]
Fresh off his BMW Championship playoff win, Patrick Cantlay begins the week at 10 under without hitting a shot. The winner from the previous week, Tony Finau, is next at 8 under, followed by Bryson DeChambeau (-7) and Jon Rahm (-6). The scores cascade down from there, with Nos. 26-30 each starting the week at Even. The staggered scoring means the oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook have two separate markets available this week: one for who will win the FedEx Cup, and one for who will have the lowest 72-hole total regardless of starting strokes.
Unlike the previous two weeks, East Lake is a known commodity to several players in this field. It’s a lengthy par-70 with thick rough, a layout that will place outsized importance on keeping the ball in the fairway in order to hold approach shots on glassy greens that regularly eclipse 12 on the Stimpmeter. With that in mind here are the players I have circled as potential value plays in the season finale:
Odds to win the FedEx Cup (including starting strokes, odds via PointsBet)
Justin Thomas (+1700): Thomas won the whole thing back in 2017, two years before the format change. He’s starting this week at 4 under, six shots behind Cantlay, and has been relatively quiet since his Players triumph in March. But there are some signs of a turnaround: a T-4 finish at The Northern Trust was his best result since TPC Sawgrass, and he closed with a 66 Sunday at Caves Valley.
Thomas is an interesting example of how the dueling markets tell a story this week. He’s among the favorites in the 72-hole gross market, priced at +1200 behind only world No. 1 Jon Rahm. But what are the scenarios where he would have the low score for four rounds but not win? There are a few possibilities, including beating Rahm by only a shot and beating Cantlay by only a few, but I think it’s worth a stab at this price for Thomas to win the net division. He’s starting just one shot further back than where Rory McIlroy was in 2019, and Thomas’ ice-cold putter is starting to show signs of life. The ball-striking has remained world class, and he’s not as far away as his recent results indicate.
Abraham Ancer (+3000): Ancer is alongside Thomas, one of five players who will begin the week at 4 under and trailing by six. He finally broke through for a long-awaited PGA Tour win a few weeks ago in Memphis, and he posted a solid T-9 finish last week in Maryland. Ancer isn’t considered a bomber off the tee, but his skillset could work well here this week on a course that rewards driving accuracy moreso than either of the last two venues.
Ancer is sixth this season on Tour in fairways hit, and he ranks inside the top 25 in both SG: Off the Tee and SG: Approach. He’s also a leader among this week’s field in Par-3 performance on holes longer than 200 yards. That’s of particular importance given that the shortest par-3 this week is listed at 197 yards, with the other three playing as some of the toughest holes on the course. Ancer is no longer fielding questions about bagging that maiden win, and he has some traits that make it seem likely he’ll improve on last year’s T-18 showing.
Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium DFS and Betting Golf Tools that are packed with a DFS Optimizer, DFS Projections, Salary Tracker, Edge Driver, Prop Projections, Futures and much more. Gain access to both tools in our EDGE+Max tier and don’t forget to use promo code SAVE10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
Sam Burns (+3500): I am high on Burns this week in a variety of markets and for a variety of reasons. First, he knows what it takes to go low: he has shot 64 or better nine times this season, and he has held at least a share of the lead after 12 different rounds this season. That’s the best on Tour, and he’s the only player currently in double digits.
But Burns is also playing for a potential Ryder Cup spot, making a late charge for inclusion on Steve Stricker‘s squad and boasting birdie numbers that have him T-3 on Tour overall. He was solid last week at Caves Valley, finishing solo eighth, and even though he’s one of just two East Lake rookies (Erik van Rooyen) in the field, I think he has a chance at a watershed win while starting the week at 4 under.
Top Finishes (odds via PointsBet)
Xander Schauffele (+350 top-5 finish): There’s no bigger course horse this week than Schauffele, who won here in 2017 when Thomas lifted the FedEx Cup and has two other runner-up results. Last year he had the low 72-hole gross score but couldn’t catch Dustin Johnson, while this year he again begins closer to the back of the pack at 2 under. But Schauffele’s game fits East Lake like a glove, and there’s a great chance that he’ll make a steady climb up the leaderboard. A top-10 finish that pays +110 also has some value, but I’m feeling bullish so I’ll expect him to get into the mix in a big way just weeks after slipping the Olympic gold medal around his neck.
Sungjae Im (+195 top-10 finish): You’re getting almost 2-to-1 on Im to hold serve, as he’ll start the tournament T-11 at 3 under after a third-place showing last week at the BMW. Like Ancer, Im is a player who pops off the page when looking at courses where driving accuracy plays an outsized role. That’s the case this week. Im also does most of his damage on Bermuda greens and he’s had some success in the Southeast, including a runner-up at the 2020 Masters and a playoff loss at the 2019 Sanderson Farms. Im endured a bit of a hangover period after failing to medal at the Olympics and earn a Korean military service exemption, but he appears to have refocused and should be able to carry over last week’s form.
Billy Horschel (+750 top-10 finish): This is another guy who, like Thomas and Schauffele, knows what it takes to win at East Lake. Horschel tore through the playoffs back in 2014, and he has since added a runner-up finish in 2018. He was dead last in the 30-man field a year ago, which isn’t exactly something upon which to build, but his affinity for the course remains strong and he’s one of several Americans in the field who still harbor aspirations of making the Ryder Cup team. He’s starting the week at Even, and his top-10 odds are behind only Erik van Rooyen at +850. But I fully expect the former Gator to take on an aggressive game plan from the jump, and it’s one that has yielded considerable success at this event in the past.
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.
