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Shiners: Making Wise choices on derivatives

Aaron Wise

Aaron Wise

Nicole Hester / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK

The PGA Tour stops in Las Vegas, NV for the Shriners Hospital Open. As we get deeper into the season, the fields will start to have more of the bigger names. This week Patrick Cantlay and Sungjae Im kick off their 2022-2023 season. The BMW Championship winner, Cantlay, is the odds-on favorite with odds at +700. Given his history here, it makes sense why Patrick Cantlay is the lowest price on the board. He would’ve been one of the golfers that I bet to finish inside the top-10, however with his price that low, I’d rather bet on him to win outright for plus odds. Here are all the golfers I am backing this week:

Aaron Wise Top-20 (+135)

The short price on Wise this week is something we will become accustomed to as Wise continues to impress and the divide between the PGA Tour and LIV. With the form, he’s in and his success here, there is still value on him at the shorter price to finish top-20. Wise finished T8 here last season, missed the cut in back-to-back years before then, but finished T15 in 2019. His success here is expected. TPC Summerlin favors good ball strikers who gain a ton of strokes on approach. At times the course can turn into a wedge in and then a contest to see who puts the best.

Wise is a great ball striker gaining +1 stoke per round and +0.6 on approach over his last 36 rounds. He scores well on Par 5, which will be important due to the course playing shorter than the 7,255 yardage. Golfers will be able to attack these par 5s. With an average distance of 576 yards and the thinner air, going for the greens in two will be common. Paring the par 5s will almost feel like dropping two strokes.

In the final month of the season, Wise finished inside the top 20 in three of the four events. His 15th-place finish at the BMW Championship was impressive. He played well through three rounds, but his 2-over final round quickly shut down any hopes he had at competing. This week betting him to finish top 20 feels right.

Taylor Montgomery Top-20 (+150) | Top-10 (+330)

Montgomery has become a polarizing golf newcomer. Having turned pro in 2018, Montgomery has had his fair share of disappointments. After finishing 26th and finishing on the bubble twice, he finally earned his PGA Tour card this year. He he’s been impressive in his last seven tournaments. Outside of his missed cut at the US Open, he has been downright unstoppable. His six out of seven top ten finishes have put the world on notice. He’s +150 to finish top 20, but I’m also interested in him finishing inside the top 10 at +330.

The UNLV product has made serious improvements in his iron play, which excites me at a course like this. He’s long off the tee averaging around 305 yards. He’s generally accurate off the tee but has shown that to be a weakness through his first two events of the season. Despite this, he doesn’t miss the fairways by much and makes up for it with his approach shots and his spectacular putting. Basically, what he did all last KFT season was hit bombs down the fairway, hit a ton of greens in regulation, and rely heavily on strong putting. Even in his first two PGA Tour events of the season, he’s gained +2.78 strokes putting and +1.36 strokes putting. He’s a stud and should be bet on as such.