With the Breeders’ Cup World Championships just a few weeks away, the stakes action across North America has become rather lean.
Most of the best horses that are pointing toward the Breeders’ Cup are simply in maintenance mode at this point, leaving the stakes races that are scheduled to be run over the new couple of weeks slightly underwhelming.
That’s not to say there aren’t decent wagering opportunities to consider, however.
There may only be two picks this weekend, but the good news?
Both runners will be among the longest shots on the board in their respective races.
Below you will find selections from two stakes races taking place on Saturday: one from the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland, and one from the California Distaff Handicap at Santa Anita.
After thirty-eight weeks, here is the results tally (records reflective of $2 WIN / $2 WPS):
WIN: 17-114 (14.9%, -$80.74)
WPS: 59-114 (51.8%, -$166.88)
5:04 ET – SANTA ANITA R3 – CALIFORNIA DISTAFF HANDICAP – ABOUT 6 1/2 FURLONGS – TURF
Leggs Galore is strictly the mare to beat in this race, and I wouldn’t fault anyone that says taking a shot against her is a waste of time and money. I take a slightly more speculative approach in this event, however. Sure, the five-year-old mare is the most likely winner for trainer Phil D’Amato, as she’s both the fastest on paper as well as the controlling speed in the race. As imposing a figure as she is in this spot, it’s entirely reasonable to state that she’ll be an underlay in this race and others are worth considering. For me, the most intriguing entrant in the short field of five is the inside runner, KLEEN KARMA (1). Trained by Craig Lewis, the five-year-old daughter of Clubhouse Ride has been stuck racing at middle distances throughout much of her career. As solid a race mare as she’s been going longer, it’s clear that her two best tries in recent memory have come when she’s been allowed to race down the hill at Santa Anita, a configuration that some horses love, and others hate. In her first try down the hill on June 19, Kleen Karma rallied from off the pace to finish second at odds of 48-1. Then, earlier this month, Kleen Karma again rallied from off the pace, this time doing one better and upsetting a field of N1X runners at odds of 40-1. This mare clearly loves the downhill turf course in Arcadia, CA, and isn’t without a shot to hit the board at a square price on Saturday.
THE PLAY: 1) KLEEN KARMA TO WIN at odds of 5/1 or greater
5:16 ET – KEENELAND R9 – G1 QEII CHALLENGE CUP – 1 1/8 MILES – TURF
It’s rare to find a grade one event that is completely void of early speed, even when discussing turf routes – but here we are. This year’s QEII Cup features seven three-year-old fillies and not one of them would be deemed a traditional pacesetter. The pace projects to be so sluggish, in fact, that it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Irish invader Paris Peacock be the one to cut out the fractions. She may be slightly compromised by the pace, but a filly like CALIFORNIA ANGEL (1) shouldn’t be completely dismissed in a race like this. After pulling off a 17-1 shocker in last year’s Jessamine for two-year-old fillies at Keeneland, the George Leonard III trainee ran a non-threatening eleventh in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf before transitioning to the dirt at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans. After a couple of terrible efforts on the main track, California Angel’s connections returned her to the lawn, where she promptly finished second in a stakes event, rallying from well off the pace. Unfortunately for the daughter of California Chrome, that was the last race she would run for six months. Following the lengthy layoff, California Angel returned in last month’s Dueling Grounds Oaks going 1 5/16 miles over the demanding Kentucky Downs turf course. Considering the testing configuration, the challenging distance, and the six-month layoff, the third place finish the filly registered should be viewed as a major positive. Now, returning to the scene of her greatest triumph, I’m hoping California Angel can come with a late run to get a piece at a big price – if not more.
THE PLAY: 1) CALIFORNIA ANGEL TO WIN at odds of 8/1 or greater