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We’ve got a tasty slate of baseball to bet on Friday and I’ve picked out two late games which I’m seeing plenty of value in. Let’s get to them.
Seattle Mariners (-140) vs. Cleveland Guardians (+120) Total: 7.5
This is a mismatch of epic proportions. On the one hand, we have Luis Castillo, owner of a 2.84 ERA in the month of August since joining the Mariners. He’s coming off an absolutely stunning performance against these same Guardians, where he struck out 10 against a team which rarely strikes out. He’s truly been one of the best pitchers in the AL.
On the other we have Zach Plesac, who has pitched to some of the worst numbers in baseball There’s a 5.29 xERA, a .403 xwOBA on contact and a .277 xBA. All of these are among the worst in the league, and I have a hard time believing he gets anything accomplished against Seattle, who owns a 103 wRC+ in the last week.
The Guardians own a putrid 38 wRC+ in the last week and are also 9-14 when Plesac starts this year The Mariners are 3-2 in Castillo’s starts and should pull this off.
Edge: Mariners -140
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Miami Marlins (+150) vs. Atlanta Braves (-180) Total: 7
I’m just not sure how either team scores runs here. Miami owns a 53 wRC+ in the last week of play with a .094 ISO — something that will sting against a player who has only really been victimized by the home run. On top of this, Charlie Morton has come back down to Earth in a good way with a 3.26 ERA, pitching more to his peripherals.
On the other hand, the Braves have really not been themselves at the plate with an average around three runs per game in the last five. On top of this, they’ve been tortured by Sandy Alcantara this season, striking out 14 times in one turn against the Cy Young Award candidate and watching pitch a complete game in another.
The Under is 17-9 this season in Alcantara’s starts for a 6.45-unit profit and I think we’ll make more here.
Edge: Under 7