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We’ve got a tasty slate of baseball to bet on Tuesday and I’ve picked out two late games which I’m seeing plenty of value in. Let’s get to them.
Toronto Blue Jays (-115) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-105) Total: 8.5
The Orioles excel when Kyle Bradish starts. With the righty on the hill, the Baltimore moneyline is 11-6 for an 8.29-unit profit, while as home underdogs the Orioles are an even-better 25-21, which is the third-best record in the big leagues.
My main angle here is Mitch White. The Blue Jays righty has been terrible throughout his big-league career, but his 7.04 ERA since joining Toronto is a new low. He owns a .254 expected batting average and doesn’t strike many people out with a punchout rate which is well below-average. That’s great news considering the Orioles have struck out at nearly a 24% clip over the last two weeks, which has been its Achilles heel.
Bradish hasn’t been amazing with a 5.17 ERA this year, but on the bright side he does own a 4.62 xERA with some other decent peripherals like a .419 xSLG. On top of this, he hsasn’t allowed an earned run in his last two starts, spanning 15 innings.
Edge: Orioles -105
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Milwaukee Brewers (-190) vs. Colorado Rockies (+160) Total: 11
If the Orioles are a good team as home underdogs, the Rockies are a great one. While a 22-22 record doesn’t sound all that amazing, when you consider the odds that you can frequently get on Colorado it makes it worthwhile.
The Rockies have returned a $100 bettor a solid $789 this season as home dogs, and in this matchup with Brandon Woodruff they may be able to get some things done. Woodruff just allowed five runs on eight hits and two walks last time out against the Diamondbacks, and now he will have to walk into Coors Field and try his luck.
Woodruff has seen his ground ball rate crater this year from 44.8% over his career to 36.6%. That’s not a good sign when you’re about to face a good fly ball team in the best hitters’ park in the game. It’s also worth noting the Brewers have been incredibly average at the plate over the last two weeks and have the 12th-highest strikeout rate.
Edge: Rockies +160
