Foxwood Casino 301 Latest Lines: Truex, Larson swap spots

Line Moves

Momentum carried Kyle Larson into the week as the early favorite, but as money started to hit the books it wasn’t long for Martin Truex, Jr. (+500) to ascend to the top spot. This is the first time Truex has been a favorite in nine weeks. Notably, two of the three times previous that he was ranked first came on the short, flat tracks Martinsville Speedway and Richmond Raceway. He won at Martinsville and finished fifth at Richmond.

Undoubtedly part of the bettors’ enthusiasm for Truex comes because of his Phoenix win, which was earned with a line of +1100.

With back-to-back results outside the top 15, Larson (+540) opened with longer odds than we’ve seen in quite some while. It apparently wasn’t enough to get the juice moving and over the course of the week he had 115 points added to his +425. It’s hard to make a firm prediction based on just one poor oval run, so if last week’s race in Atlanta was a fluke, he has a better Return on Investment (ROI) because of last week’s struggle.
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Denny Hamlin (+600) is one of the best short, flat track racers in the field and his opening of +675 was a little bit of a gift. He didn’t move a lot, but the direction suggests that he was attractive to a sizeable number of bettors. We’ve been saying all week that Hamlin has the opportunity to get his first 2021 win and with 6/1 odds he still has a respectable ROI.

We also touted Kevin Harvick (+1500) as a driver with the potential to win. Bettors did not agree and the traders at PointsBet Sportsbook had to sweeten the pot by 200 points. We liked him at 13/1, so that extra $2 bucks doesn’t change our opinion one way or the other.

Last week’s second-place finisher Kyle Busch (+625) also moved slightly in the direction that suggests enough juice to cover his original line. Busch has momentum with two wins and eight top-fives in his last 11 attempts this season. He won the fall 2017 New Hampshire race, but has not been strong on the short, flat tracks in 2021. If you bet him, be conservative.

This week’s announcement about the driver lineup for Team Penske in 2022 may have taken some of the pressure off the organization. Both Brad Keselowski (+800) and Joey Logano (+1200) had 100 points shaved from their lines this week as a result. Logano not only has the better ROI at 12/1, he is much more likely to contend for the victory based on his recent short, flat track record.

On the other hand, Ryan Blaney (+2000) did not get much action and had 200 added to his total in order to get more movement. Frankly, if he challenges for a top-10 that is about the best one can hope for.

The two drivers ranked among the top 10 that did not show any movement at all were Chase Elliott (+850) and Alex Bowman (+1800). To us, this suggests that most bettors are not clear as to the direction in which Hendrick Motorsports is moving. Confusion causes caution.

William Byron (+1600) showed a relatively slight line movement at his level with 100 points added. With 16/1 odds, he would cash in on a big payday, but bettors should note that last year his odds for this race were 40/1, so he’s made a major improvement.

As for Kurt Busch (+3000), most bettors seem to believe last week’s win was a fluke. He cashed in at +3300 and the oddsmakers showed a level of respect by dropping him to +2800. The influx of bets moved him back to +3000, which is high enough to make him a longshot with some interesting potential.

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Rank	Driver	Current Odds	Opening Odds	Change	2020 NH Odds
1.	Martin Truex, Jr.	500	525	-25	800
2.	Kyle Larson	540	425	115
3.	Denny Hamlin	600	675	-75	450
4.	Kyle Busch	625	675	-50	700
5.	Brad Keselowski	800	900	-100	900
6.	Chase Elliott	850	850	0	1000
7.	Joey Logano	1200	1300	-100	1200
8.	Kevin Harvick	1500	1300	200	400
9.	William Byron	1600	1500	100	4000
10.	Alex Bowman	1800	1800	0	3300
11.	Ryan Blaney	2000	1800	200	1000
12.	Christopher Bell	2800	2800	0	6600
13.	Kurt Busch	3000	2800	200	3000
14.	Matt DiBenedetto	6000	6000	0	5000
15.	Austin Dillon	8000	8000	0	8000
15.	Tyler Reddick	8000	7000	1000	6600
17.	Aric Almirola	9000	9000	0	1600
18.	Ross Chastain	10000	12500	-2500
19.	Daniel Suarez	15000	20000	-5000	50000
20.	Chris Buescher	20000	15000	5000	30000
20.	Bubba Wallace	20000	25000	-5000	20000
20.	Cole Custer	20000	20000	0	6600
23.	Ryan Newman	25000	25000	0	8000
23.	Ricky Stenhouse Jr./span>	25000	20000	5000	20000
23.	Chase Briscoe	25000	20000	5000
26.	Erik Jones	30000	35000	-5000	3300
27.	Michael McDowell	50000	50000	0	50000
27.	BJ McLeod	50000	50000	0	200000
27.	Ryan Preece	50000	50000	0	50000
27.	James Davison	50000	50000	0	200000
27.	Corey LaJoie	50000	50000	0	75000
27.	Garrett Smithley	50000	50000	0	200000
27.	Cody Ware	50000	50000	0
27.	Josh Bilicki	50000	50000	0
27.	Justin Haley	50000	50000	0
27.	Quin Houff	50000	50000	0	200000
27.	Anthony Alfredo	50000	50000	0

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