Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he’s betting Game 4 between the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors.
Warriors at Lakers (-3): O/U 227.5
Game 4 between the Warriors and Lakers will be potentially the best contest since Game 1.
Golden State shot 29.5% from three and 39.6% from the field in Game 2 with only 17 free-throws to Los Angeles’ 37. The last time that happened was in Game 1, when the Lakers won 117-112.
In the following game, the Warriors blew out the Lakers by 27 points in Game 2 before the Lakers turned around and blew the Warriors out by 30 points in Game 3. After Golden State was blown out in Game 3, I expect a bounce back game and the zig zag theory to provide us with two plays worth considering.
Golden State has scored 26, 29 and 31 points in the first quarter following a loss this postseason, so they are 2-1 to the Over 26.5.
The Warriors scored 30, 26 and 31 points in the three first quarters of this round against the Lakers, so give me Golden State’s 1Q Team Total Over 26.5 at -125 odds -- good to 27.5.
I played the Warriors ML at +130 odds and would go down to +115 at what I’d consider fair price. The fact that this spread is the same, if not a point or two points shorter, the Warriors are the play to even up the series.
Pick: Warriors 1Q Team Total Over 26.5 (1u), Warriors ML (Risk 1u)
Stephen Curry O/U 30.5 Points vs. Lakers
The Warriors need a big game for Stephen Curry and I think they might just get it in Game 4, down 2-1 at the Lakers.
In Games 4, 5 and 6 against Sacramento, Curry scored 31, 29 and 50 points down the stretch on 48.8% from the field and 35% from three.
The 30.5 points prop is more than likely sharp considering Curry stayed Under 30 points in all three versus Los Angeles, but I like the Over.
Curry’s scored 27, 20 and 23 points in this series thus far, but considering the last two games have been blowouts and Curry scored 27 points in a five-point contest during Game 1, this is a good bounce back spot to bet him.
I played Curry Over 30.5 Points at -125 odds and would pivot to a Warriors +10.5 and Curry 30+ points parlay if this goes above 31.5 for -120 odds.
Pick: Stephen Curry Over 30.5 Points (1u)
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