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Javonte Green O/U 10.5 Points vs. Hawks
The NBA is back! Tell a friend!
If the NBA is back and Chicago is playing, well, that means Javonte Green is playing basketball. You were probably expecting Zach LaVine or DeMar DeRozan, but here is a fade I like.
With LaVine in the lineup, Green is 5-5 (50%) to the Under 10.5 points over the past 10 games compared to Over 10.5 in his previous three without LaVine.
Green should be the fourth and fifth option on the floor throughout this game with the emergence of Coby White and Ayo Donsumnu without Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso.
NBC’s player prop model projects Green to score 9.0 points, hitting the Under. On the season, he is 31-11 to the Under 10.5 points (71%), but 7-3 (70%) to the Over in his past 10 games thanks to some tanking teams, increased minutes and LaVine being out.
Green scored two and 14 points in his two games versus the Hawks this season. In that 14-point outing, which was the second meeting in three days with one day off in between, Green went to the free-throw line eight times and knocked down six, plus he was 4-of-5 from the field.
I doubt Green repeats that type of performance in the first game back from the All-Star break.
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Despite more Overs hitting for Green recently, the All-Star break provides rust factor and players to heal over that time span. LaVine looked fine during All-Star Weekend and should be a full-go versus Atlanta for a second-half push at the top seed in the East and a Central Division title.
Atlanta is without John Collins, but will have Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu down low. Green scores 60.4% of his points in the paint, so the two of them will provide interior defense to keep the undersized Green out the restricted area.
In February, the Hawks allow the 10th-fewest points per game in the paint at 48.5 and they rank 7th over the past 10 games with 46.8 per game. Points should be hard to come by for Nikola Vucevic and Green in the paint.
Green is a primary defender for Chicago and I expect him to focus on the defensive end on the floor more than the offensive with LaVine back. Green could draw rotational switches on bigs with the pick and roll game ran by Trae Young.
Stopping Young, Capela and company in the pick and roll will likely be the main focus for Chicago’s defense and Green will play a major role in that plan, but offensively, I doubt he contributes more than 10 points.
Back Green Under 10.5 points (-130) down to 9.5 points before pivoting to his Under on Points + Rebounds.
Pick: Javonte Green Under 10.5 Points (1u)
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