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Jimmy Butler O/U 37.5 PRA vs. Bulls
After putting up a dud in Chicago in the previous meeting, Jimmy Butler will go round two with his former Chicago Bulls.
Butler posted 18 points, five assists and four rebounds over 36 minutes of a three-point win. Dating back to 2018, Butler has played Chicago eight times.
In his eight career games versus the Bulls, Jimmy Butler averages 26.1 points per game. That is the most against any opponent. Butler only averages 20.0 or more points versus two other teams, the Spurs (20.0) and Lakers (21.3).
Here is a look at Butler’s history versus Chicago, per statmuse.
Lately, Butler scored 23 versus the Knicks and 27 against the Spurs over the past two games. Butler went to the free-throw line 24 times, making 17 (70.8%), in addition to going 16-of-31 from the field (51.6%).
Kyle Lowry is also out for personal reasons tonight, which boosts Butler’s odds at scoring and all-around game. Chicago cannot defend the paint well, and with Butler’s ability to drive and get fouled, a 30-point game is not out of the question. Jimmy Buckets scored 33 points in his last meeting with the Bulls in Miami.
Without Lowry, Butler’s rebounds and assists have gone up. Without Lowry, Butler has recorded at least 15 rebounds and assists in five of the last six games (83.3%) and nine out of 11 (81.8%).
Ja Morant just went for 46 points versus the Bulls on 13-of-15 from the free-throw line (86.7%) and 15-of-28 from the field (53.6%).
Butler has played three career home games in Miami versus Chicago and scored 20, 23 and 33 points. Expect Butler to lead the charge versus his former Chicago team. Miami holds a one-game over for the No. 1 seed in the East, so Butler will have to be overly involved.
Back Butler Over 37.5 (-110) up to 38.5 PRA before pivoting to either his Over 23.5 points (+100) or his rebound and assists prop.
Pick: Jimmy Butler Over 37.5 PRA (1u)
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O/U 27.5 Points vs. Kings
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is hot, scoring 32 and 36 points in his past two games versus the Suns and Pacers.
The Thunder’s guard missed all of February up until the past two games. SGA averages 56.5% from the field on 23.0 shots and 9.0 free-throw attempts through those two games.
SGA and the Thunder last played on Friday, so Oklahoma City had an entire weekend off before hosting the Sacramento Kings.
The Kings allowed 115 and 128 points in the two games back from the All-Star break. They allow 51.2% from the field in that span and are one of the worst defenses in February and the entire season.
SGA scored 20, 22 and 33 points in his last three meetings versus the Kings. Lately, he is 7-3 (70%) to the Over 27.5 points in his last 10 games, per NBC’s Edge Finder (shown below).
When SGA plays 35 or more minutes, he is 8-2 (80%) to the Over in his past 10 games. Our model predicts him at 27 points in 35 minutes, which is a magic number for us (35 minutes is the magic number).
SGA has scored 31 and 32 points in two of his past three home games and will be well-rested ahead of this matchup versus a Kings’ defense that permits the sixth-most points per game to point guards (23.86).
Based on SGA’s ability to get hot, let’s ride SGA to score Over 27.5 points (-125) as he attempts to go for three straight 30 point games. I would play this at 28.5 or a half-unit at 30-plus points for + money.
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 27.5 Points (1u)
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Ja Morant O/U 29.5 Points vs. Spurs
Ja Morant is coming off a career-high 46-point game versus the Bulls and will look to follow that up against another weak defense.
The Spurs have surrendered 61.0 points per game in the paint over the last two games (132 total)! That is the second-most behind the Raptors (65.0 - 130.0) since the All-Star break.
Most of Morant’s game relies on getting to the bucket, so this is a favorable matchup for another 30-piece.
Out of the All-Star break, San Antonio ranks second-worst in field goal percentage on defense (55.5%), three-point percentage (42.4%) and seventh-worst when it comes to free-throw attempts allowed (31.0). All areas to benefit Morant.
Morant played 35 and 36 minutes in his past two games, which is encouraging. When Morant plays at least 34 minutes, he is 15-7 to the Over 29.5 points (68%), but 14-4 to the Over at 35-plus minutes (78%), per NBC’s Egde Finder.
Morant set a career-high on Feb. 16 versus the Blazers with 44 points before the All-Star break. He followed that up with 20 points against Minnesota and 46 versus Chicago in the two games post-All-Star Weekend.
While Morant has the Most Improved Player all but locked up, he is still making a push for MVP. His duel versus DeMar DeRozan proved that.
This season, Morant scored 30 and 41 points versus the Spurs on some insane shooting numbers, per statmuse.
Morant also has a 44-point game to his credit versus the Spurs in 2020, so he enjoys playing San Antonio.
San Antonio is a bottom-11 defense in points per game to point guards (23.41) and shooting guards (22.33).
Let’s go with Morant Over 29.5 points (-120) up to Over 30.5 points. I would prefer a 30+ point alternative for a lower unit than playing 30.5.
Pick: Ja Morant Over 29.5 Points (1u)
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