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Domantas Sabonis O/U 33.5 PRA vs. Hornets
We are a hot 15-2 in the National Basketball Asssociation since Thursday and we are letting the good times roll on the blood, sweat and tears of Domantas Sabonis versus the Hornets.
As an Indiana Pacer, Sabonis has hit the Over 33.5 PRA in six out of eight games (75%) and averaged 18.3 points, 12.2 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game for 36.2 PRA during that stretch, per statmuse.
In the two Unders, Sabonis played 22 and 27 minutes, which will not happen here unless he’s in foul trouble. He fouled out twice this season but those were against Bam Adebayo and Jusuf Nurkić of Miami and Portland.
The Hornets will not play bully ball with Sabonis, but be the ones accepting it.
This season, Sabonis averages 14.4 points, 9.2 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game (29.2 PRA), so you might think this prop line is a little high, but not at all.
Sacramento and Charlotte are the number 8th and 9th ranked pace-of-play teams this season, so we should expect plenty of rebounds and assists opportunity for Sabonis.
In the past four games, Sabonis averages 18.0 potential rebounds and 7.0 potential assists per game. Out of the 25.0 potential rebounds and assists, Sabonis has converted 16.2 rebounds and assists for a 64.8% success rate, which is above the norm.
Charlotte ranks bottom-five in points per game versus centers (26.6), bottom-10 in rebounds per game to centers (15.64) and permitting the most points in the paint per game (58.3).
The Hornets have the NBA’s best ranked three-point defense at 28.5% thus far, so if they limit the Kings from deep, expect Sabonis to clean up the glass. Charlotte is the 18th-ranked team in second-chance points per game (15.3) and 24th in offensive rebounding to opponents (35.5).
Everything is a positive for Sabonis versus Mason Plumlee, P.J. Washington, Jalen McDaniels and Nick Richards.
Paolo Banchero recorded 21 points, 12 rebounds and 7 assists (40 PRA) versus the Hornets this season, while Jonas Valančiūnas posted 30 points, 17 rebounds and 4 assists (51 PRA).
I risked 2 units on Sabonis Over 33.5 PRA at -125 odds on DraftKings to win 1.6 units.
I would play this at 34.5 and I expected this line to be 35.5.
Pick: Domantas Sabonis Over 33.5 PRA (Risk 2u)
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