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It has been anything but a close series to date between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics. Just one of the first four games has been decided by single digits and that happened only because the Celtics made a late run in Game 3.
The 1st quarter of each game has concluded with one team leading by an average of a little over 13 points. Another quirky stat is that the Miami Heat still hold the home court advantage in the series despite having outscored Boston in only three of the sixteen quarters played to this point in the series.
It is now a Best of Three series, and these two teams now know each other front to back and back to front. It will be fascinating to see if the Celtics are mature enough for the moment or if the Miami Heat culture can overcome injuries and a talent shortage compared to the lineup of the Boston Celtics.
The Late Sweat crew has become fixated on this game and series and have found five plays worth your attention. Play any of them individually or parlay them and get a boost courtesy of PointsBet.
Corey Parson (@TheFantasyExec): Boston Celtics ML (-131)
Before you place a wager on Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals make sure you take a good look at the latest injury report. Marcus Smart, Robert Williams, Tyler Herro, PJ Tucker, and Kyle Lowry are just some of the names questionable for tonight’s action. I think the Heat need to be fully healthy to beat Boston, but I think Boston can be short a player and still beat Miami.
When Boston went into Milwaukee and won game 6 after blowing game 5 the Celtics proved they were the team to beat in the East. With so much on the line tonight I like Boston to rise to the occasion once again.
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports): Robert Williams Under 15.5 PTS + REB (-150)
Boston’s Robert Williams is dealing with a knee injury that has kept him to 25 or fewer minutes in seven out of eight postseason games.
The Celtics big man has stayed Under 15.5 PTS + REB in six of those eight games and one of the Overs was in the last game, a blowout for the Celtics. Williams went 4-for-5 from the field and made all four free-throws. He recorded 14 of his 21 P+R in the second and third quarters when the game was out of hand.
In a competitive game where I like the Heat, I will fade the banged-up big man in favor of the healthier trio of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Al Horford to lead the Celtics in scoring and rebounding tonight.
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Kenny Ducey (@KennyDucey): Bam Adebayo UNDER 24.5 PTS and REB (-105)
Adebayo has had exactly one good game in this series, and it came against a Celtics team missing Robert Williams. The Kentucky product scored 31 points to go along with 10 rebounds in Game 3, but when Williams returned for Game 4 the Heat center was limited to nine points and six boards.
Adebayo has gone under 24.5 points and rebounds in every game this series except for that Game 3, and as long as Williams is a go here I really like this prop. Adebayo has had just a 9.3% rebounding rate in the minutes Williams has played in this series, and even with the Time Lord off the floor he’s grabbing just 12.1% of available rebounds. For context, his rebounding rate sat at 15.9% this season.
The Celtics’ interior defense is an absolute force to be reckoned with and Adebayo should fall victim here.
Johnathan Wright (@JwrightOfficial): Jaylen Brown OVER 2.5 Threes (-140)
Jaylen Brown has really found his range during this postseason knocking down 2.5 threes per game on 38.1% shooting.
Moreover, Brown is shooting the deep ball particularly well against the Heat in this series, averaging over 3.0 treys a game on 40% shooting. Most encouraging when it comes to this prop is that he is attempting 7.5 attempts from behind the arc per game. Therefore, even if his hot hand cools off and he shoots closer to the league average this season at 35.4%, he would still be averaging 2.54 threes against Miami.
The California product has reached this prop value in six of his last ten playoff outings (60%). He’s also reached it in three of the previous four Eastern Conference final matches against the Heat (75%), with that one miss coming in Game 4 when he played less than 30 minutes.
Jake Wolf (@JakeWolf13): Marcus Smart O5.5 Assists (-150)
Marcus Smart has developed into the floor general for this Celtics team and ranks just behind Jayson Tatum for the team lead in touches per game this postseason. Smart averaged the second-most passes per game of any player remaining in the playoffs and leads that group in assists and assist points created per game, according to NBA Tracking Data.
Smart has put up 6.8 assists per game so far this postseason and reached five assists in all but two games in the playoffs. The Defensive Player of the Year averaged 9.5 assists per game through his first two games against Miami and Smart should exceed 5.5 dimes for the fifth consecutive game while playing heavy minutes for the Celtics tonight.
Late Sweat Summary:
Corey Parson (@TheFantasyExec): Boston Celtics ML (-131)
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports): Robert Williams UNDER 15.5 PTS + REB (-150)
Kenny Ducey (@KennyDucey): Bam Adebayo UNDER 24.5 PTS and REB (-105)
Johnathan Wright (@JwrightOfficial): Jaylen Brown OVER 2.5 Threes (-140)
Jake Wolf (@JakeWolf13): Marcus Smart O5.5 Assists (-150)
Enjoy the game and enjoy The Late Sweat.
If you are interested in parlaying these five plays, enjoy a boost to your parlay from +1000 to +1500 courtesy of PointsBet.
