Welcome to Rotoworld’s NBA Trending Topics! Each week our analysts discuss a range of topics from around the league – today’s edition includes Shai Gilgeous-Alexander‘s blistering start as the top-ranked player in fantasy (per game); Bol Bol‘s remarkable ascent with Orlando (and Mo Bamba‘s concurrent decline); plus Jarred Vanderbilt‘s “young Draymond Green” vibes. Let’s dive in.
Jared Johnson – @Jae_Tha_Truth
Holy Shai! Gilgeous-Alexander has gotten off to an insanely hot start this season, hitting career-highs in points (31.0), assists (7.0), steals (2.4) and swats (1.2), which has him ranked No. 1 overall in fantasy hoops. He’s also scoring incredibly efficiently, converting 49.6% of his 23.8 shot attempts and he’s yet to miss at the line through his first five games. The truly terrifying aspect of these stat lines (for the rest of the league at least), is that SGA is only 24 years old, so he’s just now scratching the surface of his potential.
Now, it’s worth noting that he’s been doing this mostly without Josh Giddey, who has only appeared in three of OKC’s first six games, so he could see a dip in the dimes once Giddey returns to the mix. However, I do think the rest of his numbers are mostly sustainable. Perhaps he won’t average 2.4 steals and 1.2 blocks per game, but 2.0 steals and 1.0 block does feel achievable.
The real question is — how long will OKC allow SGA to play this season? Over the past two years, he’s been limited to a total of just 91 games, although he did have a solid run from Feb. 24 - March 21 (13 games) last year when he posted first-round numbers with 30.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 7.3 dimes, 1.7 triples, 1.8 steals, 0.8 swats and 3.9 turnovers a night on 54.2% shooting from the field and 80.6% at the stripe. He did get shutdown on March 23 for OKC’s final 10 games, but at that point, the fantasy playoffs had concluded in most leagues.
If your leagues end early enough (I have mine ending on March 19), then I think it might be possible to avoid “Silly SZN,” and SGA could be on a lot of winning teams if he’s active. However, if you’re in a league that goes much beyond that, Gilgeous-Alexander’s late-season availability becomes a much larger issue. It’s also worth thinking about how much time he might miss during the regular season with minor injuries.
So, is this a sell-high situation? I believe so. I don’t doubt that SGA’s per-game numbers this season will be amazing, but I am concerned about his availability, whereas that’s not the case with other first-round products such as Luka Dončić, Nikola Jokić, Giannis Antetokounmpo, etc. Folks might not be thinking as much about a late-season shutdown this early in the year, and his torrid start may have created a blind spot and an opening to swap him with a more dependable first-round stud. However, if you’re in a league where folks aren’t willing to give you another first-round player, or a couple top-20 guys, then just enjoy the ride and hope for the best.
Zak Hanshew – @ZakTheMonster
Bol Bol has seen his roster rate soar over the last week, thanks to three stellar starts. Is he the real deal or just a flash in the pan? Over his first two contests, the big man netted 15 total points, nine total rebounds and three total blocks across 30 minutes. He looked promising in those games, but his production has taken off since then, and fantasy managers who scooped him up have never looked back.
Bol has swatted multiple shots in five of his last six games and posted double-digit points in four of them. In his three starts, he’s averaged 13.3 points, 10.0 boards and 2.7 blocks on 68.2% shooting. He’s also hit three triples this season, including one on Tuesday night. Can he stick in the lineup with Jalen Suggs back in action? Bol played 31 minutes Tuesday to Suggs’ 28, and even if Suggs shifts to the starting lineup in Orlando’s next game out, there will be plenty of minutes to go around.
Mo Bamba has been on the court just 13.4 minutes per game this season, and Bol has firmly entrenched himself as Orlando’s go-to big man next to Wendell Carter Jr. Even if we conservatively estimate a dip in minutes as Orlando’s backcourt gets healthy this season, Bol can be a top-100 player in 9-cat formats due to his elite blocks and FG%. He’s not just a flavor of the week, and his play on both ends of the court has solidified his role for a team that’s not going to win many games this season and will likely keep playing him to see what they’ve got. Bol is still available in 27% of Yahoo leagues despite ranking 60th in per-game value thus far, so make sure he’s not on your waiver wire. I don’t know about you, but I’m loving Orlando’s jumbo lineup of Bol, WCJ, Paolo Banchero and Point Franz, and I’m loving what Bol is doing for my fantasy teams!
Jonas Nader – @JonasNader
Jumping off what Zak said, it’s fun to watch unique players like Bol Bol and Jarred Vanderbilt break out in front of our eyes. We’re only two weeks into the season, but the scary part is that I think both are only going to get better from here – Bol Bol‘s minutes have been on an upward trajectory since the season opener, and he’s the early favorite for waiver-wire pickup of the year. Going into Tuesday’s game vs. the Thunder, Bol Bol ranked as a 6th-rounder in 9-cat in only 20.4 minutes per game, averaging 10.9 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.4 blocks on 65% from the field and 77% from the line.
When he reached 30 minutes for the first time on Oct. 30th, he showcased his upside with 16 points (7-of-10 FG, 2-of-2 FT), 11 rebounds, three blocks and two turnovers. The crazy thing about this is that his 3-points shot isn’t even falling yet. He was a lights-out shooter in college and Wendell Carter Jr. called him the best 3-point shooter on the team, so when he gets into a rhythm out there he could become ridiculous in fantasy basketball. And we already know what his floor is, as Bol Bol is proving to be one of the best shot blockers in the NBA with 4.3 per 36 minutes.
As for Jarred Vanderbilt, a couple years ago I compared him to a young Draymond Green:
Jarred Vanderbilt per-36 at age 21: 13.1 points, 10.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 2.8 steals, 1.4 blocks
— Jonas Nader (@JonasNader) January 28, 2021
Draymond Green per-36 at age 24: 13.3 points, 9.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.8 steals, 1.4 blocks.
He's just getting started.
I’m even more confident in that comparison. As a 6'9” forward, Vanderbilt ranks 15th in the NBA in total rebound percentage and has been flying around defensively, ranking 9th in steal rate.
His playmaking has also made a big jump but was always something he had in his bag. This season he’s averaging 4.4 dimes per 36 compared to his career average of 2.2. He’ll need to find a way to keep the fouls down, but Vanderbilt is looking like a key piece of Utah’s rebuild.
Vaughn Dalzell – @VmoneySports
Three of the NBA’s most popular teams, the Lakers, Nets and Warriors are some of the best teams to fade in the betting market. Who would have thought?
The Lakers, Nets and Warriors are a combined 3-17 ATS (15%) and 5-15 on the ML (25%) so far. If you bet $100 on each of those three teams, you would have lost a combined $1,218 on the ML and $,1427 ATS for -$2,645.
If you have learned anything about betting these three public teams, it’s don’t, pass on the game or take their the opponent. You’re welcome.
