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The Dallas Mavericks and the Golden State Warriors take to the court tonight for Game 1 of their Western Conference Final. It is a match-up with multiple storylines. Does the Warriors’ extensive playoff experience help them? Or are they too old? Can Dallas continue to shoot at a high percentage from beyond the arc? Does that even matter if Luka continues to wear Superman’s cape?
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Most weeks, this is an article that focuses on stats. That continues today. However, a dive into the regular season series and its stats is the path here in an attempt to discover any consistent answers as to why a team or individual succeeded or fell short.
Game 1: Mavericks win at home 99-82 on January 5th
Klay Thompson did not play in this game as he was still in the final stages of his rehab. Andrew Wiggins did suit up and led Golden State with 17 points in 32 minutes. Jordan Poole had not taken that next step yet as he scored six points and was a -21.
For Dallas, Luka scored 26 points but was only a +2 in 34 minutes. Sterling Brown was a +29 in just under 15 minutes.
Game 2: Golden State rolls at home 130-92 on January 25th
Dallas got waxed. Not one “+” player for them. Luka had 25 points but was -19. They shot just 35% from the field and 25% from deep.
Draymond Green was out (a consistent theme for the final three games of the season series) but Klay Thompson was back in the lineup and scored 15 points in just under 26 minutes. The Warriors were led by Jonathan Kuminga who scored 22 points. Golden State shot 53% from the field and 40% from three.
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Game 3: Dallas wins 107-101 at Golden State on February 27th
The Mavs closed the game on a 33-8 run. It was the 1st time Spencer Dinwiddie faced the Warriors as a Dallas Maverick. He scored 24 points and was a +17 in 31 minutes. As a team, Dallas shot 50% from the field and 38% from deep.
The Warriors shot 43% from the field and 28% from three. Stephen Curry scored 27 to lead Golden State but was -4. Again, no Draymond Green in this game.
Game 4: Mavs close out the season series with a 122-113 win at home on March 3rd
Luka dominated the stat sheet with 41-10-9 and Spencer Dinwiddie chipped in with 17 points and was a +14 in 28 minutes.
No Draymond for the Warriors but Jordan Poole began to emerge as a factor in the series scoring 23 points in 26 minutes.
The primary takeaway from the season series is there is no consistent statistical thread on the offensive end as to why one team won or lost. Dallas just found a way to win three of the four games. Small sample size but one can surmise Golden State needs to shoot at a high percentage to win. They shot well in their lone win in the four games. The Warriors also shot well in a game they lost, but that group needs to shoot at a high percentage to win. It will be interesting to see if their veteran legs have enough juice if the series goes six or seven games.
Dallas did not shoot well in each game they won. They did not dominate on the glass or rack up an overwhelming number of assists consistently. Head Coach Jason Kidd consistently speaks to his team still getting used to each other and learning about who they are and what they can ultimately achieve as a team. That may sum up best the reason for their inconsistencies...but they continue to win.
Enjoy the NBA Playoffs. Enjoy Predictor.
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