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Christian Wood O/U 19.5 Points vs. Mavericks
In Christian Wood‘s last two meetings with the Mavericks, he scored 22 and 23 points, including five triples in one meeting.
The Rockets forward has scored 16, 31 and 20 points through three games for 22.3 points per outing. In his last three contests, Wood knocked down two or more triples and attempted at least 14 field goals.
NBC’s player prop model projects Wood to record 22.5 points, hitting the Over. Wood cashed the Over 19.5 points in nine of the last 14 road games at 30-plus minutes (64%) and seven of his last 10 overall above 30 minutes (70%).
The Mavericks permit 36.1% to opponents from three (21st) and 44.1% from the field (11th). Both are favorable enough for Wood to get his share of shots off.
Since the start of last year, Wood has scored 20 or more points in 26 of the last 44 games (59.1%). When he had 14-plus field goal attempts, Wood hit the Over 19.5 points in 24 of 34 contests (70.5%) dating back to 2020-21.
Dallas allowed Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Cam Reddish and Trae Young all to score 19 or more points in two games. Houston’s Wood could certainly lead the Rockets in scoring and add his name to that list.
Back Wood to score 20-plus points up to 20.5 for 1 unit.
Pick: Christian Wood Over 19.5 Points (1u)
Josh Giddey O/U 5.5 Rebounds vs. Warriors
The Oklahoma City Thunder’s rookie forward Josh Giddey has had an impressive start to the season, averaging 9.7 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.7 assists in 27.3 minutes per game.
In his last outing versus the 76ers, Giddey went for 19 points, eight rebounds and seven assists in 34 minutes. I would like to point out Andre Drummond did not play. The game prior, Giddey had six points, four assists and two rebounds against Houston.
Focusing on rebounds, Giddey has 15 rebound chances for 5.0 per game but 6.7 boards per game. Because of that, Giddey has a 133% rebound chance percentage, which is sixth in all of the NBA and best among rookies.
Below are the top rookies ranked by rebound chances, Giddey is second to the bottom with 5.0 per game.
The 133.3% rebound chance percentage stat caught my eye. That stat might not make sense to everyone. Essentially, Giddey is grabbing his and others’ boards giving him above a 100% rate, and there is no way any player can continue that.
Add in the fact that the Warriors’ Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins and Otto Porter Jr. have all had minute increases makes life tougher for Giddey. Through three games, Golden State allows the sixth-fewest rebounds per game (43.7) and the third-fewest offensive rebounds (7.7).
He had 10 rebounds versus Utah, but the Jazz allow the sixth-most rebounds per game (51.0). Against Houston, he had two boards and the Rockets rank third in the league with 42.7 opponent rebounds per contest.
In regards to rebounding, the 76ers are in the middle of the league and did not have their best rebounder(s) for that matchup against Giddey (Drummond, Ben Simmons).
Giddey has four offensive rebounds of his 20 total boards through three games, so I expect two or fewer from him against Golden State.
That leaves us with defensive rebounding, which relies upon Golden State missing, and we know how that could go in the National Blowout Association.
Giddey played 20 and 29 minutes in the two losses by 19-plus points. If Golden State covers the -9 spread, there is a good chance Giddey does not see enough minutes to make a major contribution on the boards for Oklahoma City.
NBC’s player prop model projects Giddey to record 4.5 rebounds in 31 minutes, hitting the Under and giving him one the best values marked on the board.
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The model shows value on his Over 11.5 points prop, but I prefer to fade the Under 5.5 rebounds for 1 unit.
I grabbed Under 5.5 rebounds for 1 unit at -105 odds and would play out to -130 odds.
Pick: Josh Giddey Under 5.5 Rebounds (1u)
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