Some basketball teams just match up well with one another. I believe that’s exactly what we have here in the postseason series between the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks.
Okay, maybe I’m a little biased because I picked a Clippers-Heat NBA Finals before the playoff bubble began, but Miami is sort of like “Milwaukee lite.” The Heat are a defensive-minded squad that uses size and length to give opposing offenses fits. They have a super alpha in Jimmy Butler that is no stranger to taking over games late. And they’ve got a head coach who is a wizard when it comes to preparation.
Erik Spoelstra was Miami’s secret weapon in the 2006 NBA Finals because of his ability to find the weaknesses in the Dallas Mavericks from behind the scenes. He cut his teeth in the video room, morphed into a scouting asset then ascended to head coach when Pat Riley moved from the sideline to the executive suites.
Spo is one of those coaches that is dangerous with time to prepare. He’s brilliant when it comes to taking away what you do well and making you adjust. He makes Miami the type of team that isn’t afraid to throw the first punch.[[ad:athena]]
I fully expect the Heat to throw the kitchen sink at Giannis Antetokounmpo in Game 1. You’ll see Butler, Bam Adebayo and even Jae Crowder facing up on the Greek Freak from time-to-time. They’ll double Giannis whenever they get the chance and make the supporting cast carry the mail. If those shots aren’t falling from their secondary options, I think Miami can even steal the opener.
It’s not like the Heat haven’t had success against Milwaukee either. They won in Wisconsin 131-126 on October 26. They also handled them rather easily in a 105-89 home win on March 2. In that meeting, the Bucks were held to a then-season low 89 points. Giannis scored only 18 points on 18 shots and The Deer shot 7-of-34 from downtown.
Hmmmm.
Obviously, the regular season and the postseason are two different animals, but size and length play in every game, anywhere, anytime. Milwaukee got caught going through the motions in their first playoff game against Orlando and that’s entirely possible tonight.
And doesn’t that series price seem a little high?
Milwaukee is as high as -500 to advance in the series, which puts Miami at +400 or higher to pull off the upset. That may be worth a flier until the Bucks prove that they possess a true number two scoring option in postseason play. Here’s looking at you Khris Middleton.
I like the underdog tonight in a game that could realistically come down to the final possession.
Play on the Heat +5.5.
