Bam Adebayo O/U 30.5 PRA vs. Celtics
Bam Adebayo faces a familiar opponent when he takes on the Celtics in Boston. This game will be of utmost importance with postseason seeding on the line, making for a competitive Sunday matinee.
Focusing on regular-season performances versus Boston, Adebayo has averaged 17.3 points, 10.0 rebounds and 4.3 assists for 31.6 PRA in the last three meetings. He went Over 30.5 PRA in the last two meetings with the Celtics (33, 35).
Miami and Boston met in last season’s Eastern Conference Finals. Adebayo posted impressive numbers over six games. Adebayo averaged 21.8 points, 11.0 rebounds and 5.2 assists (38.0), going Over 30.5 PRA in five out of six games.
Recently, Adebayo has played well and averaged 33.4 minutes over the previous 10 games. In that span, Adebayo has averaged 33.2 PRA. Over the past five outings that number is slightly lower at 30.8.
Adebayo has gone Over 30.5 PRA in seven of the last 10 games and three of the past five with one 29 PRA performance.
NBC’s model projects Adebayo to record 19.2 points, 8.9 rebounds and 6.5 assists for 34.6 PRA in 33 minutes. I like the sound of that given how the Celtics have defended centers lately - I think Adebayo is a solid bet to start the day.
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The Celtics have struggled with bigs lately, allowing more than a few to have their way. Versus Chicago, Nikola Vucevic recorded a triple-double of 18 points, 14 rebounds and 10 assists.
The Magic’s Moritz Wagner posted 20 points and four rebounds (24 PRA), while Mo Bamba recorded 19 points, 15 rebounds and one assist (35 PRA).
The Blazers’ Jusuf Nurkic had 14 points, 11 rebounds and four assists (29 PRA) and Jakob Poeltl from the Spurs had 15 points, 10 rebounds and one assist (26 PRA). That is just the last four games and Adebayo is arguably more talented than all of them when it comes to all-around game. [[ad:athena]]
Overall, Boston does not have one category that they defend well versus centers and Adebayo has played this team nine times in two seasons now.
The Celtics allow the second-most free-throw attempts to opponents in the last five games (28.4), which is worrisome versus Adebayo. He has gotten to the charity stripe 55 times over the last 10 games knocking down 41 (74.5%).
Adebayo went to the free-throw line 45 times in the six-game postseason ECF games versus Boston. In the last two regular-season meetings with the Celtics, Adebayo recorded six and 18 free-throw attempts. That should be the theme once again.
This game is essential for playoff seeding with the NBA’s new format. The Heat are in the No. 6 spot, a half-game back from the division-leading Hawks and one-game ahead of the No. 7 slotted Celtics. The No. 7 seed is in the play-in tournament, which neither team wants to play in.
Back the Celtics struggles versus opposing centers to continue along with the competitiveness of this game giving Adebayo an excellent chance to play 33 or more minutes. I would play this up to 31.5 for one unit.
Pick: Bam Adebayo Over 30.5 PRA (1u)
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