It’s not often that the betting market sees crazy movement on a basketball player’s assist prop.
Then again, this is not your average year.
Miami Heat star Jimmy Butler is apparently the exception to the rule. All of Butler’s prop numbers are a little inflated after his incredible triple-double helped Miami win their first game of the NBA Finals over the Los Angeles Lakers. But it’s his assist prop that has moved the most.[[ad:athena]]
Butler racked up a whopping 13 assists in Game 2 and followed that up with 13 more in Game 3.
Naturally, the market on his assist prop has ballooned quite a bit throughout the Finals. PointsBet Sportsbook was dealing 4.5 before the series opener, 5.5 before the second game and 6 or 6.5 before the last game. The Game 4 number opened at 6.5 early this morning and the line is now holding steady at O/U 7.5 assists u-137.
“We didn’t sit at 6.5 for all that long, but at that number, we didn’t take a single bet on the Under,” PointsBet director of communications Pat Eichner told NBC Sports. “Now at 7.5, 95 percent of the bets and the money wagered is on the Over.”
Even if it’s just a player prop, those are insanely ridiculous splits.
I woke up this morning fully intending to pick Butler Under 6.5 or 7 assists tonight. Then in a matter of mere moments, it got blasted all the way up to 7.5 and now you’re being juiced to death if you want to bet Under that bloated number.
If you’re like me and still thinking about betting Butler’s assists Under, I would monitor this bad boy over the next few hours. There’s a good chance that either the juice will change or the number gets knocked back to O/U 7 assists at -110 or -115.
Laying -137 on props is bad business long term and friends don’t let friends drink too much juice.
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