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Another week is here in the NBA, and we have a short slate which promise to pack a real punch. I’ve got a couple of ways to bet the most anticipated games on the card, going off around 7:00 p.m. ET.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (-7) Total: 212.5
It would seem the Cavaliers are getting healthier here with Caris LeVert and Lauri Markkanen both entering the game as questionable after missing the loss to the Bulls over the weekend. While that will surely help them against the Clippers — and makes them deserving favorites — I think this line is a little out of control.
Cleveland is still missing Jarrett Allen, who has anchored its defense, and since the All-Star break it is ranked 18th in points allowed per 100 possessions. On the other side of this, the Clippers are sixth on defense.
The Clippers are just 5-6 against the spread on the second night of back this season but they’ve done well to run their second unit out more and more throughout the season and have the depth necessary to take on this task. I am not going to believe the Cavaliers can magically play defense until I see it, especially without Allen.
Edge: Clippers +7
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Denver Nuggets vs. Philadelphia 76ers (-3) Total: 223.5
This is the game everyone has been waiting for. We have two of the favorites to win league MVP matching up one on one in the post in what’s sure to be a very tight, thrilling game. While the spread is likely right on, I do think the total is a bit off.
Yes, the Sixers play at a painstakingly slow pace. Yes, they should be able to control this game — so in theory the pace shouldn’t be frantic. With that said, the Nuggets are just outside the top 10 in pace in the second half of the season and should have to push the ball up the floor just a bit to get into this one.
I’m also concerned about both defenses. The Nuggets will likely be without Aaron Gordon for this one and while they’re highly-rated in the second half on defense that number is likely inflated by playing a very weak schedule (they drew Sacramento three times).
Above all, though, both of these teams rank in the bottom seven of the league in restricted area defense with the Sixers allowing a blistering 71.8% of shots to fall around the rim. That should set us up for plenty of scoring from both talented bigmen.
Edge: Over 223.5
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