It was a tough night of betting last night. Thankfully, the under came through in the national championship game to save some money. Tonight, we head back to the association where there is a monster slate of games. Let’s break down each game and see where there is value in either the spread or total for each contest.
Chicago Bulls vs. Indiana Pacers (+1) Total: 226
The Indiana Pacers are a horrible team to handicap. To be blunt, they are money burners making them tough to back them on the spread. The Chicago Bulls are 16-6 ATS on the road this season, but they only have two straight-up wins in their last 10 games. The Bulls are the team to back in this spot, but I feel more comfortable putting my money on the total. Domantas Sabonis is questionable for the Pacers tonight making it much more of a challenge for the Pacers to get anything going offensively.
Edge: Under 226
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics (+2) Total: 221.5
The Boston Celtics have won four out of their last six games and they really need a win tonight against the 76ers. Philadelphia already has two wins over Boston this season and Joel Embiid should be in the lineup, which will cause problems for the Celtics defensively. Overall, Boston needs this game more than Philly does, but the Sixers are just the better team.
Edge: 76ers -2
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Los Angeles Lakers vs. Toronto Raptors (-1.5) Total: 209.5
The Lakers are in Toronto tonight to face the Raptors, which will be without Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry. Andre Drummond is also questionable for the Lakers. The Total in this game opened up at 215.5, but has dropped all the way down to 209.5. Without LeBron James or Anthony Davis, the Lakers are struggling to score and are 9-1 to the Under in their last 10 games. I never like to back such a drastic line move, but I’m not sure where the points will come from in this game.
Edge: Under 209.5
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Atlanta Hawks (-3.5) Total: 228.5
These teams just met on Friday night, with the Hawks getting a blowout win. The Pelicans were short-handed that game, and they may be tonight as well. Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are both questionable. Trae Young sat out portions of the Hawks last game. I would make sure he is playing before I back the Hawks.
Edge Finder Tip: In games this season that the Hawks are home favorites, the under cashes 76% of the time.
Edge: Under 228.5
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Miami Heat (-5) Total: 216
The Miami Heat ride a four-game winning streak as they host the Grizzlies tonight. Memphis is 13-8 ATS on the road this season and 8-6 ATS as road dogs. This game opened up with Miami as a 4.5 point favorite. The line is currently at 5, but the juice indicates that the hook is coming. At that point, I would grab Memphis. The Heat are 8-11-1 as home favorites this year.
Edge: Grizzlies +5.5
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Detroit Pistons vs. Denver Nuggets (-13.5) Total: 215
The Denver Nuggets are the talk of the league right now. The addition of Aaron Gordon has them looking like a serious title contender. Tonight, they put their five-game winning streak on the line vs. the Pistons. The Nuggets, for how great they have looked, have not been so great against the spread at home this season. Denver is 10-14 ATS on their home court. However, the Pistons are not in the same class as the Nuggets. This spread looks high, but I think it’s that way for a reason.
Edge: Nuggets -13.5
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Los Angeles Clippers (-5.5) Total: 229
The Clippers and Trail Blazers meet tonight in what should be a very entertaining game. Both teams are coming off blowout victories as this game opened up with the Clippers as 6-point favorites. That number has mainly stayed between 6 and 5.5. I think this is going to be a one-possession game and expect a playoff-type atmosphere on the court with both teams having their key guys playing. Give me the under with an expected slow pace of play.
Edge: Under 229
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Golden State Warriors (+5.5) Total: 237.5
The Bucks are playing their fifth straight road game tonight, this time, against the Warriors. Golden State has looked out of sorts as of late. They are losers of seven of their last 10 games. It seems like this would be a smash spot for the Bucks, but Milwaukee is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games. The total in this game opened at 233.5 and has steamed up to 237.5. That number is too high.
Edge: Under 237.5
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