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Blake Griffin O/U 12.5 PRA vs. Celtics
While some will remember Blake Griffin‘s time with the Nets for a few highlight dunks and his addition as a potential game-changer, it has been anything but that in the postseason.
Griffin starts the game with the Nets, but Bruce Brown has emerged as Steve Nash’s favorite of the two. Brown is averaging 19.8 minutes per game in the series, right behind Griffin’s 20.8.
Taking a look at Griffin’s game log in this series, he leaves more to be desired. He has only played more than 20 minutes in one outing (Game 3), and with a potential blowout in Game 5, I don’t see a bump in minutes coming.
Game 1: 20 Min, 1 Point, 4 Assists, 3 Rebounds
Game 2: 20 Min, 11 Points, 4 Assists, 3 Rebounds
Game 3: 25 Min, 4 Points, 5 Rebounds, 1 Assist
Game 4: 18 Min, 2 Points, 2 Rebounds, 0 Assists
Griffin has only hit the Over on his 12.5 PRA number in one of the four postseason outings. When he plays between 15 and 25 minutes this season, Griffin has a hit rate of 64.3% (18/28), but in the last six games, he is 1-of-6 (16.6%) per props.cash.
His role has reduced as the Nets’ trio of Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and James Harden demanded more minutes and usage. Griffin does not offer the athletic ability to get rebounds and is a stretch forward focusing on his jump shot at 32-years-old.
Griffin is shooting 30% from the field, 0% from three and 56.3% from the free-throw line in this series with 3.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game to his 4.5 points (10.1 PRA).
Back Griffin to fly under the radar again as the Nets likely blow the Celtics out without Kemba Walker and Robert Williams.
I would not play this any lower than 12.5.
Pick: Blake Griffin Under 12.5 PRA (1u)
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Tristan Thompson O/U 21.5 PRA vs. Nets
Kemba Walker and Robert Williams will be out for the Celtics, putting more pressure on Jayson Tatum, Marcus Smart and company.
One player that has been on and off, and I expect to be off, in this outing is Tristan Thompson. The Celtics center has played 25, 25, 30 and 23 minutes in the series and double-doubled in two of the four outings.
In Games 2 and 3, Thompson had 15-11-0 and 19-13-1, hitting the Over easily. In Games 1 and 4, Thompson struggled, and I see a reason to believe that will be the theme in Game 5.
Game 1: 25 Min, 4 Points, 10 Rebounds, 2 Assists
Game 2: 25 Min, 15 Points, 11 Rebounds, 0 Assists
Game 3: 30 Min, 19 Points, 13 Rebounds, 1 Assist
Game 4: 23 Min, 5 Points, 6 Rebounds, 1 Assist
The Celtics played Grant Williams 21 minutes and Jabari Parker 17 minutes off the bench along with Payton Pritchard (24) and Aaron Nesmith (19), seeing significant time. Williams and Parker specifically take time away from Thompson and I believe we can see more of that in Game 5.
What I am getting at is that the Celtics will likely roll with a smaller lineup for a majority of the game with shooters. Boston cannot slow down Brooklyn, which has been evident with the Nets 49.3% from the field in the series.
The only way to beat Brooklyn is to outshoot them, precisely what Boston did in Game 3 with 50.6% to 45.2% from the field. The Celtics played their entire starting five for 30-plus minutes and only Romeo Langford played more than 11 minutes off the bench.
Boston matched Brooklyn’s 16 made three-pointers and attempted one more than the Nets in Game 3. Langford went 2-of-6 (33.3%) from three, the reason why he saw more minutes than the rest of the bench that attempted zero threes.
In Game 4, Boston’s bench had four players compared to one in Game 3 attempt at least one three-pointer. The bench also attempted 26 field goals compared to 9 in those outings.
Boston does not have that luxury now with Walker and Williams out. I can see Marcus Smart, Evan Fournier and Jayson Tatum playing 30-plus minutes, but Thompson is a stretch.
Thompson has only played one game back-to-back of 30 minutes or more this entire season and playoffs. Thompson played 33 minutes against Chicago, recording 17 PRA, then 34 minutes versus Phoenix for 22 PRA. Other than that, every time he plays 30 minutes, Thompson plays fewer than 30 in the following game.
When Thompson plays between 20 and 30 minutes on the season, he has a 27.3% hit rate the Over 21.5 PRA (12/44) per props.cash.
When he plays below 30 minutes, so 29 or fewer, Thompson has a hit rate of 19.2% to the Over (10/52) or an Under rate of 80.8% (42/52).
Thompson has hit the Over only two-of-seven times (28.6%) versus Brooklyn this season. In the playoffs, Thompson is split at 50% on this prop with performances of 16, 26, 33 and 12 PRA, in that order.
Despite the possibility of Boston trying to force a Game 6, I think the series ends here in a Brooklyn blowout.
I will bank on Thompson playing fewer than 30 minutes and when that happens, he is 20% on the season and in the last 10 games to the Over.
I would play this down to 20.5 and that is it.
Pick: Tristan Thompson Under 21.5 PRA (1u)
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