Team USA will take on the Czech Republic in their third match of the Tokyo Olympics on Saturday morning at 8:00 am ET. USA are a 23.5-point favorite for this game and -5000 on the MoneyLine at PointsBet. The total is set at 183.5, which is the highest O/U of the tournament for USA so far. I’m taking three different props for this Group A matchup, let’s look at both teams and find the value for this game.
USA:
Despite a 1-1 record, the United States is still the odds-on favorite at PointsBet to win the Gold Medal. In their most recent match, Team USA defeated Iran 120-66, easily covering the 41-point spread and cashing the over for the game’s 165.5 total. The team showed off their depth in the victory, with each player on the roster scoring at least four points. Damian Lillard hit seven threes to lead the team in scoring with 21, and Devin Booker put up 16 points and three steals. The top-ranked squad in the FIBA Men’s World Rankings used a switching defense to limit Iran and force 23 turnovers in the match.
Inserting Jrue Holiday into the starting lineup helped USA’s defense, bringing physicality on the perimeter. The three-time All-Defensive Team selection is one of the premier perimeter stoppers in the NBA. Holiday played a major role in Milwaukee’s championship run, as he routinely guarded the opposition’s best players while holding his matchup to 45.7% shooting from the field. His hounding defense will be key to slowing down Tomas Satoransky, the only current NBA player on the Czech Republic team.
USA snapped a 25-game Olympic winning streak in their loss to France but look to start a new streak after beating Iran. The team’s unexpected loss is partially explained by an uncharacteristically poor shooting night that was capped off by USA missing their last nine field-goal attempts. But there are some deeper issues for Team USA, specifically their struggle to manage teams that have big frontcourts. Iran couldn’t make the United States pay for switching their guards onto big man Hamed Haddadi, but the Czech Republic boasts a large front line with two seven-footers in Jan Vesely and Ondrej Balvin.
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Czech Republic:
The Czech Republic also beat Iran and lost to France in their first two matches but didn’t perform nearly as well as the United States against their Group A opposition. After barely topping Iran in their first game, the team allowed France to score 97 points to even the Czech record at 1-1. The Czech Republic is 0-2 against the spread in Tokyo, winning 84-78 as 17-point favorites against Iran and losing by 20 to France as 9.5-point underdogs.
Currently ranked 12th in the FIBA Men’s World Rankings, the Czech Republic qualified for their first-ever Olympic appearance after winning the Olympic Qualifying Tournament in Canada. Tomas Satoransky hit a game-winning shot in overtime of the tournament’s semi-final game and served as the flag bearer for the country at the Olympic Opening Ceremonies. Satoransky is a solid scorer but is best as a playmaker, averaging 10 points and nine assists through two Olympic matches.
The frontcourt duo of Vesely and Balvin provides the Czech Republic with rebounding and interior scoring, which could pose problems for a smaller team USA. Vesely, a former top-10 pick in the NBA draft, has been out of the league since 2014 but is averaging 15 points and six rebounds in his first two Olympic games. Balvin, a 7’1” center, is a dominant rebounder who grabbed 8 boards in each Olympic game and put up 12.3 points and 10.8 rebounds per game in the Olympic Qualifying Tournament last year.
Prediction:
USA should be able to handle an inexperienced Czech Republic squad but could struggle to contain their frontcourt on the boards. I’m staying away from the spread and total for this match to focus on prop bets, as I see some advantageous numbers posted for player props in this Men’s Olympic Basketball matchup. With the defensive ability of Jrue Holiday and USA’s lack of size on the interior, I think that the Czech game plan will be to feed Balvin and Vesely as much as possible. I’m targeting the over on rebounds for Balvin and the under on points for Satoransky for the Czech side. If you’re looking to take a bet on team USA but don’t want to lay the 23.5-point spread, PointsBet is offering an Olympic Booster for Damian Lillard to score 20 points and USA to win, boosted from +115 to +135.
EDGE:
Ondrej Balvin O8.5 rebounds +110 (BetMGM)
Tomas Satoransky U14.5 points -113 (FanDuel)
Damian Lillard 20+ points and USA to Win +135 (PointsBet)
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