Deandre Ayton O/U 14.5 Points vs. Celtics
The Phoenix Suns are coming off a narrow victory Wednesday night and take a trip to Boston for a matchup with the Celtics.
I target Deandre Ayton in this game, while I must admit he has performed as the third-best player on the team recently, this is a spot he should go Over his point prop.
NBC’s model projects Ayton to score 17.6 points tonight, far above his 14.5 point prop. In 10 back-to-backs this season, Ayton has averaged 13.1 points per game (PPG). However, in his last two second nights of a back-to-back, Ayton scored 18 and 19 points versus the Clippers and Heat.
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This is how the Celtics have performed versus Centers or opposing Power Forwards in the last 10 games. Points are in parenthesis:
CHI: Vucevic (29)
GS: Green (4)
LAL: Gasol (18)
POR: Nurkic (8)
DEN: Jokic (17)
MIN: Towns (30)
NYK: Randle (22)
PHI: Embiid (35)
CHA: Biyombo (6)
HOU: Wood (19)
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In the last 10 games, the Celtics have allowed seven opposing big men to record 17 or more points. The only exceptions to this are Draymond Green, Jusuf Nurkic and Bismack Biyombo. None of the three are known for their scoring, so I like the chance Ayton scores 15-plus points.
In his only meeting with Boston this season, Ayton scored 16 points on 7-of-11 (63.6%) shooting in 39 minutes. Ayton has four career meetings with the Celtics and he scored, in order, 14, 23, 26 and 16 points for an average of 19.7 PPG.
When Ayton plays 30-39 minutes this season, he averages 16.9 PPG. Versus the 76ers, Ayton only played 29 minutes, so he should be well-rested for tonight’s matchup.
In the last four games that he played fewer than 30 minutes, the very next outing, Ayton increased his scoring -- a lot.
In the last four games under 30 minutes, Ayton scored 9, 14, 19 and 8 points. In the following contest, he increased his scoring to 27, 18, 26 and 20 points. Each game, he bounced back with more points for an average of 10.2 PPG.
Versus the 76ers, Ayton scored 10 points in 29 minutes and if he only needs five or more versus Boston, Ayton can do that. The Celtics allow the 12th-most PPG to centers at 22.66 PPG and will rely on Tristan Thompson and Luke Kornet at center without Robert Williams. That is a good sign for Ayton.
Ayton’s projected to record 32 minutes tonight and in the last six games of 30 or more minutes, he has scored at least 18 points in all six.
I would play this up to Over 15.5 points.
Pick: Deandre Ayton Over 14.5 Points (1.5u)
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