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The NBA continues tonight with a five-game slate, with the first game tipping off at 6:00 PM ET. Originally, there were nine games planned for Sunday, but four of them have been postponed.
As we woke up this morning, 59 NBA players were in health and safety protocol, and that number is rising drastically. With over 13% of the NBA not playing, there are bound to be strange results and changes in the standings. If we were to take a snapshot of the conference standings right now, the Brooklyn Nets would be the top seed in the East while the Phoenix Suns hold the crown in the West.
While standings and game results do not necessarily matter when assessing player props, they often provide better context to a team’s statistics for matchup purposes. But with so much fluctuation among rosters, team statistics need to be taken with a grain of salt. For instance, the Nets are seventh in offensive rating, and the Milwaukee Bucks are eighth in defensive rating. Last night, the Bucks allowed more than 115 points for just the third time all season to the Cleveland Cavaliers, who attempt the second-fewest shots in the NBA. Meanwhile, the Nets tied their season-low in points (93) to the Orlando Magic, who has the third-worst defensive rating. Both sides have four or more players out due to health and safety protocols.
With that said, let’s jump into my favorite NBA prop bets for Sunday’s slate. All odds are reflective at the time of writing.
Best Bet #1 - D’Angelo Russell Over 6.5 Assists ( +115 BetMGM)
We are getting good value with these odds. D’Angelo Russell is averaging 7.9 assists and 13.5 potential assists over the last 10 games, so if everything goes right, this could cash in the third quarter. Plus, Anthony Edwards will be unavailable for tonight’s game due to health and safety protocols, which means Russell will see increased usage and likely play 35+ minutes.
Russell is assisting on 31.9% of the Minnesota Timberwolves’ field goals when he is on the court this season. Moreover, Karl-Anthony Towns is also shooting 53.7% from the field over his last five games. This is essential for Russell’s assists total because 26.9% of his passes and 25% of his assists go to Towns, according to NBA.com.
The Timberwolves are outscoring opponents by 8.3 points per 100 possessions with D’Angelo Russell on the court.
— StatMuse (@statmuse) December 12, 2021
They are outscored by 12.5 points with DLo off the court.
That 20.8 net rating difference is the 3rd biggest in the league only to Jokic and Giannis. pic.twitter.com/L6VEjzSPDc
The Timberwolves will face the Dallas Mavericks tonight, a matchup that favors Russell’s assists total. The Mavericks are in the bottom-half of the league in assists allowed to opposing teams and are allowing guards an average of 8.34 assists per game this season.
D’Angelo Russell has exceeded this prop value in 12 of his 24 games this season (50%) and in six of his last 10.
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Best Bet #2 - Tyrese Haliburton Over 14.5 Points (-110 DraftKings)
The Sacramento Kings have been hit hard by COVID-19: De’Aaron Fox, Marvin Bagley III, Terence Davis, Alex Len, Davion Mitchell, and Louis King will be inactive tonight due to health and safety protocols. This means that Haliburton will be forced to have a high-usage rate and take more shots.
In Friday’s game, which also had all six aforementioned players unavailable, Haliburton scored 21 points and recorded a usage rate of 20.6%. It makes sense to expect a similar scoring output from the 21-year-old tonight.
The Kings will be home against the San Antonio Spurs, a matchup favoring Haliburton’s scoring total even more. The Spurs allow teams to shoot 36.4% from three, which is where Haliburton takes 42.9% of his shot attempts.
Tyrese Haliburton has hit this prop value in 16 of his 28 games this season. However, he has hit in seven of his 14 home games, and with the King’s roster circumstances, the Wisconsin native should have no issues scoring 15 or more points.
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