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With the trade deadline now in the rear-view mirror, NBA teams can begin to see how some of the players moved at the deadline fit in with their new squads ahead of the playoffs. The biggest trade of the day was the blockbuster move that sent James Harden to the 76ers to team up with MVP candidate Joel Embiid. This move took the 76ers from +1200 to +650 in NBA Championship odds, but the trade could hurt Philadelphia’s chances of covering the spread tonight.
Harden is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game and is unlikely to make his Philly debut against the Thunder, his former team. Paul Millsap, who was also acquired in the deal, has only played one game in 2022 and will probably need to ramp up before getting on the court. That leaves the team shorthanded tonight after completing the three-for-two trade. While Ben Simmons hasn’t played a game for the 76ers this season, the other two players sent to Brooklyn in the deal were key contributors to Philly’s success so far this season.
Seth Curry led the team in three-pointers this season and hit at least 40% of his threes in each of the last six seasons, while Drummond has been a successful offseason signing as a backup center who saves the team’s rebounding from falling off a cliff without Joel Embiid on the floor.
The 76ers rank dead last in rebounds per game and 27th in rebounding rate, and it could get worse with Drummond gone. Philly’s offensive rebounding rate improved by 8.6% with Drummond on the court this season, a 99th percentile differential. That’s even more impressive considering he barely shared the floor with Embiid, the team’s leading rebounder. Drummond put up the second-best offensive rebound percentage in the league while topping the NBA in defensive rebound percentage this season.
Philly’s lack of size outside of the center position allowed opposing guards and wings to grab easy boards, and while Harden is a solid rebounder, that won’t help the 76ers tonight. Josh Giddey could be in for a big game since he’s been a strong rebounder this season, grabbing the second-highest percentage of available defensive rebounds among all wings according to Cleaning the Glass. In 10 games without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giddey put up averages of 16.9 points, 8.5 rebounds and 7.8 assists with a 26% usage rate.
This is the front half of a back-to-back for Philadelphia, and the team will play a fellow Eastern Conference contender in a matchup with the Cavs tomorrow. Philly will need plenty of minutes from Joel Embiid to limit the big lineups Cleveland puts on the floor and, without Drummond, there’s no experienced backup center on the roster. If the 76ers start to pull away tonight, they could rest Embiid to keep him fresh for tomorrow, which opens up backdoor cover possibilities.
The Thunder struggle to defend opposing big men but still manage to keep opponents away from the rim. OKC holds opponents to only 28.7% frequency at the rim, the fourth-lowest mark in the league. The most exploitable area when playing against the Thunder is from beyond the arc. The defense allowed opponents to shoot nearly 40% of shots from three-point territory, which ranks 26th in the NBA. Curry led the 76ers with 28 points in the last game against OKC and made seven of his 10 threes in the game.
The Thunder will once again be without star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander but the team went an impressive 32-20-2 ATS so far this season, the third-best record in the league. No team has been more profitable as a double-digit underdog than OKC, with a 10-5-1 ATS record as double-digit dogs.
As long as Embiid is playing, the 76ers should be heavily favored for this game, but I see value in the Thunder up to +12. The 76ers went just 15-19 ATS so far this season as favorites and own a 3-6 ATS record when favored by 10 points or more.
EDGE: Oklahoma City Thunder +13 (1 Unit)
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