Vaughn Dalzell breaks down Game 1 between the Pacers and Knicks, plus Game 2 of the Nuggets and Timberwolves.
Pacers at Knicks (-5.5): O/U 217.5
Indiana and New York open the semifinals of the Eastern Conference in what should be another exciting series between teams with guards who are becoming stars.
Jalen Brunson and Tyrese Haliburton will be the faces of this series. However, both teams have quite different styles to win. The Knicks focus on defense and tight rotations compared to the Pacers’ quick-tempo style of play and its youth.
In the Pacers’ two playoff losses against Milwaukee, Indiana scored 92 and 94 points compared to 125, 121, 26, and 120 points in the four wins. Indiana lost Game 1 at Milwaukee, 109-94, and that was with Pascal Siakam scoring 36 with 13 rebounds.
The Knicks will be much more physical than Milwaukee and Madison Square Garden will be rocking, so I will fade Indiana who is 1-2 on the road in playoffs thus far. I played Indiana’s Team Total Under 106.5 Points at -115 odds on FanDuel down to 105.5.
I also parlayed the Knicks ML with the Nuggets ML at +100 odds on DraftKings. Denver lost Game 1, but I expect a bounce-back performance in Game 2.
Pick: Pacers Team Total Under 106.5 (1u), Knicks and Nuggets ML Parlay (1u)
Josh Hart O/U 5.5 Assists vs. Pacers
Josh Hart was the second-best player for the Knicks throughout the first-round series against the 76ers.
Hart finished with 16.8 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game over a ridiculous 46.3 minutes per contest. He barely came off the floor and that should not change against Indiana.
Hart averaged almost 10 potential assists per game over his last three outings and 8.8 in the postseason overall. Those numbers will increase against the Pacers who ranked second in tempo during the regular season compared to the 76ers who were 18th.
I sprinkled Hart to record a triple-double at +1900 odds and like his 8+ assists at +410 as well. However, the best bet is his Over 5.5 assists at +160 on FanDuel. Hart posted seven assists in Game 6 of the previous series and I think he could hit that again.
Pick: Josh Hart Over 5.5 Assists (1u)
Timberwolves at Nuggets (-6.5): O/U 207.5
Denver was rolled over in the second half against Minnesota and now the sportsbooks are offering Minnesota to sweep the Western Conference and the entire NBA postseason.
The hype is building at a height, which is deserved, but doubtful to continue. Denver needed a big first-quarter run of 21-3 to lead the first 12 minutes, slacking out the gate similar to the Lakers’ series.
However, Denver now knows that with a Game 1 loss, that style in the first quarter will no longer work. I expect the Nuggets to look much different in the first 12 minutes of the seventh game of the playoffs compared to the first six where they trailed in five of those contests.
Minnesota is 5-0 in the playoffs, but I am willing to fade that in Game 2 on the road at the reigning NBA champs. Give me the Nuggets -2.5 at -110 odds in the first quarter and in a ML parlay with the Knicks at +100 odds on DraftKings.
Pick: Nuggets 1Q -2.5 (1u), Nuggets and Knicks ML Parlay (1u)
Season Record: 56-45 (55.4%) +6.65 units
NBA Futures in my pocket
3u: Boston Celtics to win the Eastern Conference (-125)
1u: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for MVP (+300)
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