Vaughn Dalzell breaks down the best bet in the Milwaukee Bucks versus Detroit Pistons matchup.
Pistons at Bucks (-12): O/U 227.0
We are back to scheduled programming in the NBA after the league is coming off a rest day due to Election Day. Let’s roll with a reliable play in a more than reliable divisional matchup.
Last season, Milwaukee scored 56, 57, 60, and 83 points in the first half of the four meetings versus Detroit, and in 2021-22, Milwaukee scored 56, 57, 64, and 64 points in the first half of those four matchups.
When Milwaukee is the home team versus Detroit, the Bucks have scored 59-plus points in five of the past six matchups. I expect that trend to continue for Milwaukee in the first half against Detroit, as the Pistons have lost five straight games entering this contest.
The Pistons have played four teams with expected winning records to finish the season amid their 0-5 stretch and gave up 56, 58, 59, and 72 points to those four teams in the first half. Milwaukee can certainly do better at home.
The Bucks are 19th in the NBA with 55.8 first-half points per game and 16th at home (57.0 1H PPG). The Bucks have hosted four home games this year versus the 76ers, Hawks, Heat, and Knicks. This will be the Bucks’ easiest opponent at home and of the season.
I like this spot for Milwaukee, so grab the 1H Team Total Over 58.5 at -120 for the Bucks. I would play this to 59.5 for 1 unit as I expect the combo of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and role players to look sharp.
Pick: Bucks 1H Team Total Over 58.5 (1u)
Season Record: 6-4 (60%) +1.85 units
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