With just one week until the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the PGA Tour heads to the Wyndham Championship at the Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, NC. This week is the last chance for golfers on the bubble to perform their best and make the 70-man field for the St. Jude Championship. Here are the golfers on the bubble and what they need to qualify:
- 76th Shane Lowry: Top 22
- 77th Justin Suh: Top 18
- 79th Justin Thomas: Top 17
- 81st Adam Scott: Top 8
- 97th Gary Woodland: Top 2
- 116th Billy Horschel: Win
- 145th Ludvig Aberg: Win
While none of these golfers have made the cut on my outright betting card, it’s important to note the golfers with extra motivation—especially golfers like Lowry and Thomas. Instead of mailing in if they are struggling, they might grind out a top-20 finish.
Sedgefield is a Donald Ross-designed 7,031-yard par-70 course. It’s a traditional tree-lined parkland course. The course is heavily wooded, and the narrow fairways are lined with thick rough. Accuracy is essential here. Think positional and target golf. With so much target and positional golf here, shorter hitters aren’t significantly disadvantaged. There are plenty of holes where most golfers will take less-than-driver off the tee.
Key Metrics Correlated to Winning:
- Driving Accuracy
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Scrambling
- SG: Putting
- Bogey Avoidance
- Course History
- SG: Par 5
- Eagles Gained
- 3-Putt Avoidance
- Par 4: 400-450
- Proximity: 150-175
2023 Wyndham Championship Outright Bets
Denny McCarthy +2800
Coming in as the highest-rated golfer in my model, McCarthy presents a tool bag of everything necessary to compete at a high level this week. He’s dangerously accurate off the tee, which allows him to hit over 66% of the GIR. Fairways hit will be extra important this week. GIR% from the fairways here over the last four years is 85.5%, and 76.8% on Tour in the previous five years. GIR% from a fairway missed is 53.1%, and 51.4% is the Tour average. The penalty margin between the two is 32.5%, much larger than the 25.5% Tour margin. It would be best if you hit fairways, and McCarthy does precisely that.
Putting this week is nearly as important as hitting fairways. There’s a 10% difference in putting average here versus the Tour average over the last five years. In the previous 24 rounds, McCarthy is the highest-rated putter. He’s gained strokes putting in his previous eight measured events.
McCarthy enters this week in solid form. He’s been in contention in four of his last eight events. He’s also gained the second most strokes total in the field in the previous 24 rounds and has two top-20 finishes in his last three trips here. McCarthy is still looking for that first PGA Tour win, but if he keeps knocking, the door will soon open.
J.T. Poston +3600
Wait a minute, Mr. Postman, don’t let Poston get hot! Poston was my first click this week. The 2019 winner’s form has been something to marvel at. He’s finished top 3 in three of his last four starts. Had it not been for Lee Hodges exploding out of a cannon, Poston likely would’ve won the 3M Open. Much like McCarthy, Poston is an excellent putter. He’s great at scrambling and has a ton of greens in regulation.
After struggling on approach in several of his last events, Poston gained +5.4 strokes on approach at the 3M Open. This correlates highly with a winning trend from this event. Four of the previous five winners have gained over +4.0 strokes on approach in at least one of their last four starts. His form and tournament pedigree are too on fire not to add him to a betting lineup this week.
You can find my entire Wyndham Championship betting card on Twitter.
