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NFL Future Bets, Props: Bet on Travis Kelce of the Chiefs to get TDs

Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

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Travis Kelce to lead NFL in Receiving Touchdowns (+1200)

Travis Kelce O/U 1,100.5 Receiving Yards

Travis Kelce has a chance to make history this season at the tight end position and I do not see many reasons why he will not.

If the Chiefs tight end records 280 receiving yards, Kelce will catch Rob Gronkowski for 5th all-time on the tight end yardage list. If Kelce totals 994 yards, he will record 10,000 yards -- something only four tight ends in NFL history have accomplished, Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates and Shannon Sharpe (Kelce has 9,006 yards).

Over the past six seasons, Kelce has surpassed 1,100 yards five times (83.3%), including four straight! He is the best tight end in the game and has been, but now, he has to capitalize because of the offensive changes for 2022.

Patrick Mahomes will still run the show, but there is no more Tyreek Hill (Dolphins). Kelce will take on a presumed larger workload as he finished 2021 top eight in target rate, snap share, slot snaps, routes run, air yards, yards after catch, receptions and yards for tight ends -- there’s more but that’s enough.

Hill led the team in red zone targets (24), overall targets (159), target share (25.1%) and target rate (29.7%). Do you expect Juju Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Skyy Moore to take all that production or Kelce?

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As a Steelers fan, Smith-Schuster is not an ideal No. 1 option and proved that once Antonio Brown dipped out of Pittsburgh. Valdes-Scantling is mostly a deep threat for Kansas City to replace Sammy Watkins, while Moore is a rookie and while I like his upside, Kansas City will likely rather design plays for Kelce more often than the three of them.

In the red zone, I expect Kelce’s targets to increase drastically without Hill and his yardage to increase as well. Since 2016, Kelce averages 1,211 receiving yards and 7.8 touchdowns per season. Kelce has at least 135 targets in four-straight seasons with 92-plus receptions and 1,125 yards as his lowest total in that span.

I love Kelce to go Over his 1,100-yard total, which equates to 64.7 yards per game, and the opportunity for a tight end to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns at +1200 odds.

A tight end has not led the NFL in touchdowns since 2013 when Jimmy Graham posted 16 touchdowns with Drew Brees. Kelce had 10 touchdowns in 2020. (T-5th), Mark Andrews finished second in 2019 with 10 scores, Eric Ebron had 13 touchdowns in 2018 (T-2nd) and Jimmy Graham totaled 10 scores over the 2017 season (T-2nd).

Since 2017, a tight end has finished top five in touchdowns four out of five years with 2021 being the first year that a tight end did not finish top five during that span. However, Kelce, Andrews, Dawson Knox and Hunter Henry all tied to lead TE’s with nine receiving touchdowns last season (T-9th).

I like Kelce’s chances to get back on that list and lead the league in receiving touchdowns at 12-to-1 and surpassing 1,100 yards for a fifth-consecutive season.

Pick: Travis Kelce lead the NFL in Rec TDs (1u), Travis Kelce Over 1,100.5 Yards (1u)

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