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Commanders at Bears (-1): O/U 37.5
Thursday Night Football! The best day of the week if you like betting Unders!
Of course and naturally, we turn our attention to the total since Carson Wentz and Justin Fields will be the quarterbacks on short weeks.
Wentz and the Commanders scored 17 points in a home loss to the Titans on Sunday and Fields managed a season-high 22 points against a Vikings team playing the following week from London.
On the season, Washington averages 18.0 points per game (26th) and Chicago averages 17.2 (27th), so we have two of the seven lowest scoring teams in the NFL here.
The Under is 15-6 (71.4%) since the start of 2021 and currently on a 15-4 run (78.9%), including 4-1 to the Under this season (80%), per NBC’s Edge Finder.
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On the year, Washington has hit the Under in three-straight games after scoring 28 points in Week 1 and 27 points in Week 2. The Commanders have scored 35 total points in the past three games.
The Washington offense is so bad that Ron Rivera made public comments on Wentz being the issue for the Commanders. Wentz has six interceptions (3rd) and 20 sacks taken (3rd) through five games, so there’s not much to like.
Speaking of Rivera, as the head coach of Washington, the Commanders are 17-10 (62.9%) to the Under when playing as the underdog, which they are here.
For Chicago, the Bears are 7-3 to the Under at home (70%) since the start of 2021. As a home favorite in that span, the Bears are 3-1 to the Under (75%).
The Over hit in the previous Bears home game, which they were also a home favorite (vs Texans). However, you would have to go all the to 2018 to find the last time that two Overs hit in back-to-back Bears home games!
Both quarterbacks rank 20th or worse in yards per pass attempt, adjusted yards per attempt, accuracy rating and just about bottom 10 in every single completion percentage ranging from pressure, deep-ball, play-action and true completion, per PlayerProfiler.
I grabbed the initial Under 39.5 on Sunday evening, but also played the Under 39 (-134) on DraftKings once the line moved down to 37.5, because of course, I like this play even more with two points of line movement in my favor.
I would not talk anyone off betting the Under 37.5 or 38.0, but I would prefer to have Under 38 (-118) if your choice is between the 38.0 or the 37.5 (-110).
Pick: Under 39 (1u)
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