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Week 3 of the NFL season is upon us and it seems as if oddsmakers are in full swing because there are a lot of games with very sharp lines. As a result, this week looks like a better week for wagering on Totals as opposed to sides. Odds powered by PointsBet.
Washington Football Team vs. Buffalo Bills (-7) Total: 45.5
This game opened up with the Bills as 9.5 point favorites, but money coming in on Washington has lowered the number. I like the number at 9.5 and love it at 7. Taylor Heineike will make his first road start for the Football Team and while we spent most of the offseason listening to how good the Football Team was on defense it has yet to make an appearance this season. Edge: Bills -7
Chicago Bears vs Cleveland Browns (-7.5) Total: 45.5
Justin Fields will make his first NFL start Sunday in Cleveland. The Browns lost ATS last week at home and are again laying more than a touchdown this week. According to PointsBet, the public is backing the Bears on the spread. I’m not putting money behind a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start on the road vs. a defense that features Myles Garrett. Edge: Bears Team Total Under 17.5
Baltimore Ravens vs. Detroit Lions (+8) Total: 50
The Ravens scored a gutsy victory last week vs. the Chiefs. This week, they head to Detroit to face the Lions. In John Harbaugh’s career with the Ravens, they are 10-4-2 (71%) ATS as road favorites of 7 or more points. That’s pretty insane. Edge: Baltimore -8
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Arizona Cardinals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) Total: 52
Two games into the Urban Meyer era and the Jaguars are giving up an average of 30 points per game. This week should be no different as the Cardinals stroll into Duval County. However, here is something I bet you didn’t know. The Under has cashed in the Cardinals’ last nine road games. Edge: Under 52
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-7) Total: 54.5
Both the Chiefs and Chargers are coming off tough losses last week. The Total in this game opened up at 55 and according to PointsBet more than 80% of the tickets and the handle are backing the Over yet the Total has dropped a point. Patrick Mahomes is 3-6 ATS at home vs. AFC West teams. I’m going to follow the sharp money and play the Under. Edge: Under 54.5
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New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots (-3) Total: 42
This game, like most games with AFC East teams, is very tough to handicap. One thing I can tell you is that I’m not laying points with the Patriots. Mac Jones, while impressive, has not earned that yet. I also can’t back the Saints. They have been on the road for a long time. I can see this being a lower scoring game. Edge: Under: 42
Atlanta Falcons vs New York Giants (-3) Total: 47.5
I dare you to walk to the window and put one penny on this game. Both the Giants and Falcons are horrible ATS teams. Since 2018, the Giants are 6-19 ATS at home. I had to read that twice. The Under has cashed in 60% of those games. Edge: Under 47.5
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) Total:43
Since the 2017 season the Bengals are 1-7 on the Money Line and 3-5 ATS vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers looked good in Week 1 but not so much in Week 2. Same thing goes for the Bengals. I think the Steelers can be had here, but I can’t back the Bengals playing back-to-back road games. Edge: Steelers -3
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans (+5.5) Total: 48
The Colts really need this game. An 0-3 start could be very difficult to recover from. Carson Wentz will be a game-time decision. Since 2018, the Colts are 4-2 ATS vs. the Titans. Edge: Colts +5.5
New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos (-10.5) Total: 41.5
The Broncos are off to a good start this season. Everyone is talking about the NFC West, but the AFC West has been impressive as well. I have successfully laid points with Denver each of the last two weeks, but this is a big number, so I’m going to lay off the spread. The Jets have scored two touchdowns on the season and they will struggle to score again this week. Edge: Jets team Total Under 14.5
Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5) Total: 44
The 2-0 Raiders return to Vegas this week to host the 0-2 Dolphins. Miami will be without their starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and Jacoby Brissett will get the start in his place. Brissett is a veteran who is up to the challenge. Over 70% of the tickets on this game are backing the Raiders. This is a good spot to fade the public. Since 2019, the Dolphins are 9-4 ATS as road Underdogs. Edge: Dolphins +3.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Rams (+1) Total: 55.5
The first wager I made this week was betting the Over in this game when the Total was 54. Tampa has struggled on defense so far this season and both teams should score in the 30’s. Edge: Over 55.5
Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings (+1) Total: 55
The Vikings should not be 0-2, but this week they are in serious danger of falling to 0-3. In his career, Russell Wilson is 19-21-3 (47%) ATS as a road favorite. In those same games, the Seahawks are 28-15 on the Money Line. Seattle is winning its games, but not covering the number. Vikings need this victory more than the Seahawks do. Edge: Vikings +1
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3) Total: 50
We have another solid game for Sunday Night Football this week. These teams match up well, but at this point in the season the 49ers are better. The Niners are at home and they are the better coached team. Edge: 49ers -3
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