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This week we have a few divisional and in-conference games that can go either way. Underdogs have done well so far this season. I would not be surprised if favorites won the week this week. All odds via PointsBet. Get the latest NFL odds here.
Washington Football Team vs. Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) Total: 47.5
There are actually two bets to make here. We were sold a false bill of goods on Washington’s team defense. We thought they had a good defense prior to the season, but he truth is, it may be the worst. The Atlanta Falcons are 9-15-1 ATS at home since 2018. This is a bounce back spot for the Football Team. Edge: Football Team -1.5
Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills (-17) Total: 47
Full disclosure, this is a stay-away game for me. I’m not laying 17 points with the Bills. I would not be surprised if they cover it, but it’s not for me. There have been 10 games this season in which the home team has been a touchdown or more favorite. The Over has cashed in six of those 10 games. Edge: Over 47
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears (-2.5) Total: 41.5
Earlier in the week, I picked the Lions at +3.5. The public is squarely behind the scrappy Lions. Now that PointsBet has this line at Bears -2.5, I’m considering going the other direction. It all depends on who the Bears start at quarterback. If it’s Justin Fields, I will play the Under. If Andy Dalton or Nick Foles is named the starter, I’m going with the Bears. Edge: Bears -2.5
Carolina Panthers vs. Dallas Cowboys (-4) Total 51.5
This is one of the tougher games to handicap this week. The Carolina Panthers have the rest advantage over the Cowboys, who just played on Monday night. Since 2016, the Cowboys are 25-27 ATS vs. non NFC East teams. The Panthers will be without Christian McCaffery this week. I can see the Panthers getting the road cover, but I like Dallas to win the game. Edge: Panthers +4
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Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins (-1.5) Total: 42.5
The Colts and Dolphins both struggle to make explosive plays on offense. Both teams have bottom-10 offensive units. The Dolphins’ starting quarterback is injured while the Colts’ starting quarterback looks like he is playing injured. I would be surprised if either team reached 20 points. Edge: Under 42.5
Cleveland Browns vs. Minnesota Vikings (+2) Total: 51.5
It was just a week ago when the Minnesota Vikings won outright as a two-point home underdog. I do think that will be the case again this week although my bet will be on the Total. Both the Vikings and Browns average over 27 points per game. In the Kirk Cousins era, when the Vikings are home with a Total of 50 or higher, the Over is 4-2-1. Edge: Over 51.5
New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints (-7) Total: 41.5
Earlier this week, I advised playing Under the Total of 43.5. Hopefully, you were able to get that number as the Total has dropped two points. I’m not going to advise playing the worst of the number. The Giants have actually been pretty decent ATS wise on the road the past few seasons. Since 2019, the Giants are 12-5 ATS on the road. I know those numbers are hard to ignore, but this Giants team is bad, particularly on offense. I think the Saints lay one on the Giants this week. Edge: Saints -7
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Tennessee Titans vs. New York Jets (+6.5) Total: 44.5
The Titans have looked impressive winning their last two games. The Jets, on the other hand, have only scored six points in their last two games. This game opened up with the Titans as a 7.5 point road favorite. PointsBet is reporting over 90% of the tickets and the handle back the Titans. Yet, the line is moving towards the Jets. The past five times the Titans have been road favorites they are 1-4 ATS. I’m not brave enough to back the Jets, but I think the Over is a good play if you expect the Jets to be competitive in this game. Edge: Over 44.5
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles (+6.5) Total 54.5
The Chiefs and Head Coach Andy Reid will hobble into Philly this weekend looking to get their second win of the season vs Reid’s former team. Turnovers are the reason the Chiefs have struggled this season. I expect them to get right this week on the road vs. the Eagles. Edge: Chiefs -6.5
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams (-4) Total: 55
A pair of unbeaten NFC West teams meet up this weekend in Los Angeles. In their last four games vs. the Rams, the Cardinals are 0-3-1 ATS. Edge: Rams -4
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3) Total: 52
The Seahawks are coming off back-to-back losses. They do not want to fall too far behind in the division race. The Seahawks need this game more than the 49ers do. This game opened up with the 49ers as 2.5 point favorites. The public is all over the Seahawks in this game yet the number is moving toward San Francisco. The Seahawks are 6-2 on the Money Line in their last 8 games vs. the 49ers. This is not an ideal spot to fade Russell Wilson. I do think the Total is a little too high in this game. The look ahead line had an original Total of 46.5. Edge: Under 52
Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos (+1) Total: 45
This is one of the tougher games of the week to handicap. Baltimore has played in close games all season while the Broncos have had their way with lesser opponents. PointsBet opened this game up with the Broncos as a one-point favorite. Heavy betting on the Ravens has made Baltimore a one-point favorite. This is a perfect opportunity to fade a short road favorite. This season road favorites of three or fewer points are 3-5 ATS. Edge: Broncos +1
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers (-6.5) Total: 45.5
The Green Bay Packers appear to have gotten their season on track. The Pittsburgh Steelers seem to be falling apart. PointsBet opened this game up with the Packers as a seven-point favorites. Over 90% of the tickets and the handle are on the Packers. Yet the number is moving toward the Steelers. Mike Tomlin as an Underdog is an awesome fade the public bet. Edge: Steelers +6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New England Patriots (+7) Total: 49
If there was a NFL version of a Las Vegas prize fight, this would be it. All eyes will be on Foxborough Sunday for Football Night in America. Tom Brady returns to the place where he became a legend to face the team he turned into a dynasty. Outside of fading the public, there is no reason to back the Patriots on Sunday night. The Buccaneers have struggled with their secondary this season. I think Mac Jones will have a very good game. Tampa is 3-0 to the Over this season. Edge: Over 49
