The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards.
Patrick Mahomes O/U 2.5 Passing Touchdowns vs. WFT
Patrick Mahomes is coming off a loss -- beware.
NBC’s player prop model projects Mahomes to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns with 3.0, in addition to 309.7 passing yards.
This season, Mahomes is 4-1 to the Over 2.5 passing touchdowns, failing to hit the Over in his previous game versus the Bills on Sunday Night Football.
Mahomes has hit the Over 2.5 passing touchdowns in four of his last five regular-season games on the road (80%) and two or more in six straight.
In his last 13 games overall, Mahomes has tossed two-plus touchdowns in 12 and three or more scores in eight games (61.5%), per statmuse
Washington’s defense is abysmal this season -- I dropped them in fantasy weeks ago.
Now, going against Mahomes, good luck. The Football Team has struggled the past three weeks against opposing quarterbacks, in particular, and Mahomes will be the toughest test yet.
Week 5: Jameis Winston -- 4 Passing TDs
Week 4: Matt Ryan -- 4 Passing TDs
Week 3: Josh Allen -- 4 Passing TDs
Week 2: Daniel Jones -- 1 Passing TD
Week 1: Justin Herbert -- 1 Passing TD
Those quarterbacks combined for 14 passing touchdowns. That is the second-most in the NFL as only the Colts have allowed more (15) than the Football Team.
It’s worth riding Mahomes in this spot as he is coming off a loss. When following a loss, Mahomes is 6-4 ATS and 7-3 on the ML, which I will get to later.
However, in those 10 games following an ML loss, the Chiefs averaged 32.1 points per game. Mahomes is 6-4 to the Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (60%) in those 10 games with two or more passing touchdowns in eight contests.
I grabbed Mahomes Over 2.5 passing touchdowns at -115 odds. I would play it out to -140 for 1.5u then 1 unit after.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (1.5u)
Ja’Marr Chase O/U 72.5 Receiving Yards vs. Lions
Detroit has been the worst in the NFL when it comes to giving up yardage to big-play receivers and Ja’Marr Chase is just that -- a big-play receiver.
Here is a list of how the leading wide receiver from each team has fared against the Lions through five games. The five mentioned averaged 6.4 receptions on 8.6 targets (74.4% catch rate) for 122.4 receiving yards per game. Yikes.
Week 5: Justin Jefferson -- 7 rec, 8 tar, 124 yards
Week 4: Darnell Mooney -- 5 rec, 7 tar, 125 yards
Week 3: Marquise Brown -- 3 rec, 7 tar, 53 yards
Week 2: Davante Adams -- 8 rec, 9 tar, 121 yards
Week 1: Deebo Samuel -- 9 rec, 12 tar, 189 yards, 1 TD
That group is 4-1 to the Over 72.5 receiving yards and would be 4-1 to the Over 120.5 yards. Detroit allows the most yards per pass attempt (10.0) and it shows.
NBC’s player prop model loves the matchup so much that Chase is predicted to have 111.7 receiving yards, the third-most in the league and well Over his 72.5 receiving yard line.
Chase hit the Over three of five times this season (60%) and two straight games.
This is as favorable as it gets for a deep-threat like Chase. He should have somewhere in the neighborhood of 4-6 receptions with Tee Higgins back and Tyler Boyd being a viable threat.
Based on Chase’s air yards share (1st in NFL), completed air yards (3rd), yards per target (4th), yards per reception (5th) and overall receiving yards (7th) -- this seems like a good bet to hop on as former and current teammates Chase and Joe Burrow have no plans of slowing down.
Detroit has allowed 22 plays of 20-plus yards through the air (T-5th) and four of 40 or more (T-4th). Expect Chase to get some deep shots in.
I played the Over 72.5 receiving yards at -115 odds and would play it up to 79.5 for one unit before I pivot to Over on his longest reception or some lunch money on 100+ receiving yards.
Pick: Ja’Marr Chase Over 72.5 Receiving Yards (1.5u)
Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. And don’t forget to use promo code VAUGHN10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
Jonathan Taylor O/U 100.5 Total Yards vs. Texans
Jonathan Taylor had a big game on Monday Night Football and will face a favorable matchup against a familiar opponent.
In Taylor’s two career games versus the Texans, he recorded 95 total yards (83 rush, 12 rec) and 135 total yards (91 rush, 44 rec), plus a touchdown in each, per statmuse. Both games were during Taylor’s rookie season last year.
NBC’s player prop model predicts Taylor to record 85.8 rushing yards and 30.4 receiving yards for 116.2 total yards, hitting the Over.
He is projected to have the fourth-most rushing yards of all running backs and 13th in receiving yards, hitting the Over on both his O/U 80.5 rushing and O/U 15.5 receiving props.
Taylor cashed the Over 100.5 total yards in three out of five games this season (60%) with his two Unders against the Rams and Titans.
The Texans surrender the seventh-most rushing yards on the season (674) and 4.4 yards per carry (T-10th most). Houston has also allowed nine rushing touchdowns in 2021, tied most in the NFL with the Jaguars and Chiefs.
Taylor has now scored two weeks in a row, three total touchdowns and found the end zone in both meetings with Houston last season.
Taylor has the most red-zone touches of all running backs with 26 and ranks eighth in rushing yards (327) and fourth in receiving yards (197) through five games.
I like the chance Taylor continues his success and the potential game script for points and to establish the second half ground game against the Texans.
Running backs this season from Week 2 on have posted nice numbers on the ground versus Houston. Nick Chubb had 95 rushing yards, plus Kareem Hunt added 51. Devin Singletary rushed for 79 yards, while Zack Moss recorded 61. Damien Harris totaled 58 rushing yards and Chuba Hubbard had 52 rushing yards.
Taylor could hit his Over 80.5 rushing yard prop as well as the 100.5 total yards.
I like the chances he does 100-plus yards for the third straight games as he should get more involved in the passing attack after he posted three receptions in back-to-back weeks and took a screen pass 76 yards to the house versus the Ravens.
I played Taylor Over 100.5 total yards at -115 odds. I would play it out to 104.5 for 1 unit before just playing his touchdown, which I bought some stock at -110 (which seems like a steal).
Pick: Jonathan Taylor Over 100.5 Total Yards (1u), Anytime Touchdown (2u)
Austin Ekeler O/U 101.5 Total Yards vs. Ravens
Austin Ekeler gets a positive matchup versus the Ravens off back-to-back big games.
In the last four weeks, Ekeler has recorded 107 or more total rushing and receiving yards yards each game, plus six total touchdowns. His role is growing with the offense and betting the total yards gives us a positive game script either way.
The Chargers running back has 54 or more rushing yards in all five games this season, including 183 in the past two games. For receiving, Ekeler posted 52 or more yards in three of the last four games.
#NFL add 🏈
— Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) October 15, 2021
1u
Austin Ekeler vs Ravens
Over 101.5 Total Yards (-114) FD
Other books transitioned to 108.5
Wanted 37.5 rec yards but moved to 44.5 today.
107+ yards in L4 games, 6 TDs in L3
BAL allows RBs to eat through the air
Total yards gives us flexibility with game script pic.twitter.com/2J0PWl5yG0
On the season, Baltimore allowed Jonathan Taylor to record 169 total yards, Melvin Gordon had 67, plus D’Andre Swift posted 107 and Jamaal Williams 67 in the past three games.
Ekeler owns the seventh-best snap share (68.1%) and ranks top 10 among running backs for rushing yards (349), receiving yards (194), receptions (23) and route participation (58.9%).
He saw his highest snap count (70.67%) of the season last week versus the Browns and in a competitive game, I expect that to continue. His role with the offense will grow this week if wide receiver Mike Williams is out.
He has missed practice all week and Ekeler should see an increase in targets, if so. I will take this and hope we get more value by Sunday, which seems like we will since there are 107.5 and 108.5’s out there by the time of publishing and my tweet.
Play this up to 106.5 total yards for one unit.
Pick: Austin Ekeler Over 101.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (1u)
Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. And don’t forget to use promo code VAUGHN10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
[[ad:athena]]
New York Giants Team Total Under 19.5 Points vs. Rams
With these plays, we are 4-2 and over +2 units on the season, so let’s keep it going.
I am fading the Giants despite the Rams making the cross-country trip for a 1 PM ET game. Looking at trends, there are a few things worth noting.
The Giants’ team total opened at 17.5 and was beat up to 19.5, so we are getting the best number possible for an Under. New York is far worse at home ATS, on the ML and scoring compared to on the road.
The Giants are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 road games (70%) but 3-7 ATS in the past 10 at home (30%). In those 10 home games, New York has scored 20 or fewer points in seven out of 10 games (70%), per NBC’s Edge Finder.
The game total Under has cashed eight times. This season, the Giants hosted the Falcons and Broncos. New York scored 13 and 14 points. They have scored 14 or less in four of the past five home games.
Daniel Jones is coming off a concussion that left New York tossing Mike Glennon into the fire last week. Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay are banged up but are expected to get Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton back.
There will be rust to knock off, and I expect a slow start from the home team, especially given how poor the offensive line has played. The Rams hold opposing quarterbacks to the 10th-lowest QBR (91.2) and have the fifth-most sacks (14).
While I like the game Under in this contest, I could not fade Matthew Stafford, so I will ride with the Giants’ Team Total Under 19.5 points as I doubt they reach 20 or 21 points.
In the Rams last 10 games traveling to the East Coast for a 1 PM game, they have won seven of those games outright (70%), covered the spread six times (60%) and held six of their opponents to 19 or fewer points (60%), per NBC’s Edge Finder.
I grabbed this at -110 odds and would play it out to -125. Nothing lower than 18.5 for 1 unit.
Pick: New York Giants Team Total Under 19.5 (2u)
Chiefs and Packers ML Parlay
As stated in my Mahomes’ piece, he is elite on the ML with seven wins following his last 10 regular-season losses, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Mahomes lost back-to-back games once each season, so three times in three years as a starter. This season, it already happened with a loss to the Ravens and Chargers in Weeks 2 and 3.
The Washington defense has been torched for three straight weeks by opposing quarterbacks, so I expect Mahomes and the Chiefs to score 30-plus and walk away with the win.
For Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers owns Chicago, no matter where the game is being played. This time, it will be in Chicago, where the Packers have won nine of the last 10 straight up (90%), per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Over the last 10 games anywhere versus Chicago, Green Bay is still 9-1 SU (90%). Going back to the last 25 games between the Packers and Bears, Green Bay has won 20 outright (80%) and covered the spread 18 times (72%).
I feel like these are two of the safest bets on the board for an ML Parlay, and at -104 odds, I cannot pass this one up.
Pick: Chiefs and Packers ML Parlay (2u)
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.
