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Wolf Wagers: NFL Week 9 Midweek Odds Preview

Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill

Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

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Heading into Week 9 of the NFL season, no team remains undefeated straight up and the Dallas Cowboys are the only undefeated team against the spread. This week’s slate features 14 games with three double-digit favorites, including the Thursday Night Football contest between the New York Jets and the Indianapolis Colts. I spoke to Michael Korn from PointsBet Sportsbook to get the betting splits and early trends to look for this week as bets through Wednesday morning come in.

Team Open Current Bet Count % Handle % Open Current Bet Count % Handle %
New York Jets 59% 88% Over 46.5 46.5 58% 92%
Indianapolis Colts -10.5 -10.5 Under 46.5 46.5
Atlanta Falcons Over 43 42
New Orleans Saints -5.5 -6 51% 61% Under 43 42 51% 63%
Denver Broncos 61% Over 49.5 49.5
Dallas Cowboys -9.5 -10 67% Under 49.5 49.5 53% 61%
New England Patriots -3 -4 67% 68% Over 41 41 58%
Carolina Panthers Under 41 41 68%
Minnesota Vikings Over 49.5 49.5 54% 74%
Baltimore Ravens -5.5 -5.5 71% 90% Under 49.5 49.5
Cleveland Browns Over 45.5 47 68% 91%
Cincinnati Bengals -3 -2.5 62% 81% Under 45.5 47
Buffalo Bills -14 -14.5 76% 54% Over 49 49 51%
Jacksonville Jaguars Under 49 49 74%
Houston Texans 56% Over 46.5 46 63%
Miami Dolphins -7 -6.5 53% Under 46.5 46 58%
Las Vegas Raiders -3 -2.5 67% Over 47.5 46.5
New York Giants 81% Under 47.5 46.5 67% 81%
Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 -1.5 84% 81% Over 50.5 50 58% 78%
Philadelphia Eagles Under 50.5 50
Green Bay Packers 65% 66% Over 55.5 54.5 56%
Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 -1 Under 55.5 54.5 59%
Arizona Cardinals -2.5 PK 68% Over 47 45 58%
San Francisco 49ers PK 53% Under 47 45 63%
Tennessee Titans Over 54 53.5
Los Angeles Rams -6.5 -7.5 74% 91% Under 54 53.5 57% 52%
Chicago Bears 71% Over 40 40 62%
Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 -6.5 52% Under 40 40 72%

The NFC South matchup between the Saints and Falcons took more money on the Saints early this week despite a significant injury to quarterback Jameis Winston and the spread moved from Saints -5.5 to -6. The total also dropped from 43 to 42 as the under cashed in three of Taysom Hill‘s four starts at quarterback last season.

There are a few cross-conference matchups that saw line movement early in the week, including the New England Patriots moving from -3 to -4. Over two-thirds of the spread bets and handle went to New England so far. The Patriots received increased future bets over the last two weeks at PointsBet Sportsbook as New England moved from +10000 to +6000 to win the Super Bowl.

The Super Bowl odds for the New England Patriots moved significantly over the last two weeks.

The Super Bowl odds for the New England Patriots moved significantly over the last two weeks.

The Cowboys once again received the majority of bets with 67% of the bet count on Dallas’s spread and the line moved up to Cowboys -10 despite Denver seeing 61% of the handle. The Ravens haven’t moved off a spread of -5.5 but 71% of bets and 90% of the handle went towards Baltimore against the Vikings early this week.

“No one is rushing to bet on the Vikings after the loss to Dallas last week,” Korn said.

The Raiders dropped past the key number of -3 down to -2.5 against the Giants with the biggest difference between bet count and handle of any game this week. Early bettors backed the under in this matchup as the total dropped from 47.5 to 46.5.

The AFC North clash between the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals saw some movement on both the spread and total. The Bengals dropped from -3 to -2.5 despite getting the majority of the bet count and handle, and the total increased from 45.5 to 47 with 91% of money wagered on the over.

The most interesting spread of the week is in the late afternoon slate when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Green Bay Packers. The line dropped from an opener of Chiefs -2.5 to the current spread of -1 as early money went to the Packers. This continues a trend of bettors losing faith in the Chiefs after Kansas City was one of the most heavily backed teams in the NFL over the past few seasons. The Chiefs received at least 75% of the bet count and handle in each of the first four weeks this season but only got close to an even split or less for every game since Week 5 against Buffalo.

“People started to realize this might not be the same Chiefs team of the past two years after the Bills beat them on Sunday Night Football,” Korn said. “It changed how bettors looked at the Chiefs in general because before that, they were like the Bucs where they got the majority of the spread bet count and handle each week.”

Kansas City might start receiving more support after news of Aaron Rodgers catching COVID surfaced this morning. According to Korn, the line went off the board after Rodgers was ruled out for Week 9 and is expected to re-open around Chiefs -7.5, meaning that Rodgers is worth around a touchdown to the spread at PointsBet Sportsbook.

The Sunday Night Football matchup in Los Angeles is another game to watch as the spread moved a full point from Rams -6.5 to -7.5 against the Tennessee Titans. Derrick Henry was listed at -300 to lead the league in rushing yards at PointsBet Sportsbook before suffering a foot injury that will keep him off the field indefinitely, which could have impacted the line move. Another likely reason for the shift is the hype around the Rams since adding Von Miller at the trade deadline. LA’s odds to win the NFC West went from +110 to +100 this week at PointsBet Sportsbook.

“More bets came in on them to win the division after the Von Miller trade, especially after the Rams dominated again and the Cardinals lost to Green Bay,” Korn said.

NFC West odds for the Arizona Cardinals and the Los Angeles Rams got closer after Week 8.

NFC West odds for the Arizona Cardinals and the Los Angeles Rams got closer after Week 8.

The favorite to win the NFC West saw the division odds drop from -125 to -115 after Arizona suffered its first loss of the season last week. The Cardinals’ spread also dropped from -2.5 to a pick-em against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 9 of the NFL season.

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