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Sunday was good to us for the second straight week - after bopping a good Thursday night slate of course. The double dipski on Monday night is not only great because of the extended action that features a ton of high profile teams and players, but it kicks off at 7 pm ET! Obviously, the flip side is they will have two games on at the same time, which is pathetic and outrageous. In any case, here are a few plays I like tonight that I did not mention over the weekend.
*Note: you have heard me say shopping around is pivotal, especially in futures betting, so make sure you look to see what book is offering the more favorable odds.
Remember: In my article from my second set of plays over the weekend, I dished out the Vikings ML and Vikings team total Over 24.5. While I think Buffalo probably wins, covers, and covers in the first half, I don’t love that game. It would be a bit of a force play for me.
Player Props (Official Plays):
Stefon Diggs O6.5 catches (+108)
The Monday night flavor featuring Stefon Mar’sean Diggs. If there happens to be one play I like from this game, it’s Diggs to notch at least seven grabs for a little plus money, honey. Having cracked this figure in six of his last 10 contests, he is coming off an eight-catch outing against the Rams. This puts Diggs in a prime position to obliterate a Titans’ defense that got GOT by Daniel Jones and the Giants last week. Furthermore, this Tennessee unit yielded the second-most receptions to wideouts in 2021 (248; 3 behind Vikings). With or without Gabe Davis, I find it sensible to take advantage of this butter matchup and volume he will surely have. Only Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp had more catches than Diggs (230) in the 2020-2021 stretch.
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AJ Brown O5.5 catches (-105)
Did Arthur Juan Brown look good last week or did Arthur Juan Brown look good last week? In his Eagles’ debut, AJB went 10-13 for 155 yards as he sliced through a Lions’ secondary that boldly decided to not cover him. Though his production was volatile in Tennessee and it’s too early to decide if that will change in Philly, you have to love what you saw in Week 1. In what could be something of a higher scoring game, Brown sees a Vikings’ secondary that was DEAD LAST in yards (3,280), and receptions (251) allowed to wideouts last season. He will also probably see somewhat of a strong dose of once-upon-a-time superstar corner in Patrick Peterson, a guy who will need to take a dip in the magical hot tub time machine to keep up with the young buck thoroughbred. Look for AJ to get another heavy target share. It’s probably a solid look to take him at +115 for an anytime tuddy.
AJ Brown O74.5 yards (-113)
I mean, see above. Brown has a great draw on Monday night in what probably is one of the easiest secondaries he could see all season… at least by 2021 standards. Whether it’s Peterson, Cameron Dantzler, or Steamin’ Willie Beamen, I highly doubt Brown is coverable tonight so long as he gets his fair share of volume. There is a shot that Minnesota does to Brown what Arizona did to Davante Adams yesterday by trying to completely take him out of the game and make somebody else beat them. However, given the matchup, I think I have to take my chances.
Window Shopping (No Plays):
Justin Jefferson- catches (7.5) and yards (95.5)
Like watching my son grow up, I want my OPOY superstar to be record setting this season. I hate to admit it though, I’m not feeling his props tonight against Philly. Because of the Week 1 explosion against the Packers, the books have inflated his totals like a balloon. Could he get 8+ catches and 96+ yards? Absolutely - in his sleep. Can he beat any corner he sees? 100% Aside from the matchup JJ gets with the Eagles tonight - who allowed fourth-fewest catches, third-fewest yards, and fifth-fewest TDs to wide receivers last season, there just seems to be crazy high expectations in addition to heavy Over action. Hopefully he goes off tonight, but I’m hanging back on all Jefferson props.
Jalen Hurts rush yards (50.5)
Hurts was one of my nice hits in Week 1 with his rushing yards over. Remember when they set it at 45.5 and he finished with 90 yards on the ground? Me too, good times. Here, a ton of people are hitting the over for Monday’s game against a Minny defense that allowed the ninth most rush yards to QB’s last season (336) - even if Lamar Jackson accounted for 120 of them. Hurts is in the same category as Jefferson. Could he have a big performance? Sure, he can, it would not surprise me at all. While this total seems nice and doable, especially off what we saw last week, it seems a bit of a trap. Hurts over rushing yards is the most public bet prop tonight at BetMGM, just like how Travis Kelce was at 77.5 receiving yards on TNF. It just seems a little too good to be true.
Summary:
Stefon Diggs O6.5 catches (+108)
A.J. Brown O5.5 catches (-105)
AJ.. Brown O74.5 yards (-113
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
