Dolphins at Bills prediction: Odds, expert picks, QBs, injury update, betting trends, and stats

Week 3 in the NFL kicks off Thursday night with the Miami Dolphins (0-2) visiting Orchard Park for an AFC East tilt against the Buffalo Bills (2-0). Tua Tagovailoa and co. are in desperation mode having lost their first two games. They have scored just 35 points through two games while conceding 60. No question Head Coach Mike McDaniel’s seat is getting at least warm following this past Sunday’s loss at home to New England, 33-27. After a nail-biter in Week 1 against the Ravens, this past Sunday was a laugher for Josh Allen and the Bills as they routed the Jets, 30-10. The Bills seem to already be in firm control of the AFC East.

Lets take a deeper dive into this week’s matchup between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills.

NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from DraftKings, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

Game Details and How to watch the Dolphins vs. Bills live Thursday

• Date: Thursday, September 18, 2025
• Time: 8:15PM EST
• Site: Highmark Stadium
• City: Orchard Park, NY
• Network/Streaming: Amazon Prime Video

Want to check out the other games on the NFL schedule this week? We’ve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!

Game odds for the Dolphins vs the Bills

The latest odds as of Tuesday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Miami Dolphins (+556), Buffalo Bills (-813)
• Spread: Bills -12.5
• Total: 49.0 points

This game opened Bills -10.5 with the Game Total set at 48.5.

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!

Bills were on 'another level' compared to Jets

Mike Florio and Chris Simms spell out why it didn't take an all-time performance out of Josh Allen to defeat the Jets in Week 2 and why they expected more out of New York's defense.

Quarterback Matchup for Miami vs. Buffalo

• Dolphins Starting QB: Tua Tagovailoa
  Last Game: 9/14 vs. New England - 26-32 (81.3%), 315yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, Sacked 5 times
  Season: 2GP, 40-55 (72.9%), 429yds, 3 TDs, 3 INTs, Sacked 8 times, 1 carry for 7yds
  
• Bills Starting QB: Josh Allen
  Last Game: 9/14 at Jets - 14-25 (56%), 148yds, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, Sacked 1 time, 6 carries for 59yds
  Season: 2GP, 47-71 (66.2%), 542yds, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, Sacked 2 times, 20 carries for 89yds

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills team stats, betting trends

• The Bills have won 17 of their last 19 home games against AFC East opponents
• The Bills are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games at home
• The Dolphins’ last four road games at the Bills have gone over the expected total
  

Dolphins Player Injuries

• WR Malik Washington (thumb) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game
• TE Darren Waller (hip) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game
• G Aaron Brewer (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game
• G Austin Jackson (toe) is on IR and is unavailable for Thursday’s game
• LB Chop Robinson (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game
• DT Benito Jones (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game
• S Ifeatu Melifonwu (calf) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game
• CB Storm Duck (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game
• RB Jaylen Wright (knee) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game
• CB Ethan Bonner (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game

McCourty: Dolphins could walk into buzzsaw in BUF

Mike Florio and Devin McCourty shed light on why the Dolphins aren’t in an ideal spot to head to a powerhouse in the AFC East on a short week.

Bills Player Injuries

• DT Ed Oliver (ankle) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game
• LB Matt Milano (pectoral injury) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game
• CB Taron Johnson (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game
• CB Cam Lewis (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game
• LB Shaq Thompson (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game
• DT Larry Ogunjobi (suspended) is not eligible to play in Thursday’s game.
  

Rotoworld Bet Best Bets

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between the Dolphins and the Bills:

• Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
• Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Miami Dolphins at +12.5.
• Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total of 49.0.

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