After a few weeks off, I am back and ready to rock and roll in the NFL. Thursday Night Football didn’t go exactly as planned for me, but this Sunday, there is a lot of poor quarterback play that opens the door to make some money. Let’s take a look at my favorite team totals, player props, and two future plays on Jaxson Dart and Dak Prescott. Best of luck!
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!
Jets at Jaguars (-13.5): O/U 40.5
As I like to jokingly say, death, taxes, and fading the Jets as a best bet. This offense is anemic and has struggled to get going over the last four games with seven straight points in each of the first halves. Now, with Brady Cook under center, and a road game at a surging Jaguars’ team, the road gets a little tougher for the Jets’ offense.
Jacksonville just faced Riley Leonard and Cam Ward, so this shouldn’t be much of a sweat for them. Over the last five weeks, the Jets have failed to record a first down on over 46% percent of their drives and failing to score touchdowns in the red zone at a 4-for-12 clip (33.3%) during that span.
I like the Jets to go scoreless in the first quarter and fail to score a touchdown in the first half. I grabbed New York’s First Quarter Team Total Under 0.5 at -125 odds and the First Half Team Total Under 6.5 at -112 odds, plus the Under 0.5 Interceptions on Trevor Lawrence (-137).
Lawrence has gone without an interception in two straight games with four touchdowns in that span. The Jets are the only defense in the NFL without an interception. If Lawrence doesn’t throw one today, then the Jets tied an NFL record of 14-straight games without an interception (2024 49ers). The fewest in a season ever is three (2017 49ers) and this Jets team looks ready to rewrite history.
Pick: Jets 1Q Team Total Under 0.5 (1 unit), Jets 1H Team Total Under 6.5 (1 unit), Trevor Lawrence Under 0.5 Interceptions (1 unit)
Raiders at Eagles (-12.5): O/U 38.5
Kenny Pickett is under center for Las Vegas as the Raiders head to Philadelphia. It’s not a great matchup for Pickett as he returns to his former team who knows him all so well. The Raiders also have been playing abysmally poor on offense lately. In the past five games, Las Vegas averages 3.8 yards per play on offense (last) and overall, the Raiders average 1.08 points per drive on the road this year (last).
On top of that, the Eagles have lost three straight games, so it’s time to stop playing with their food. Despite the offense having its issues all season long in Philly, the defense has come correct since the bye week. The Eagles have allowed 13.2 points per game in that five-game stretch, but 24, 24, an 22 points in the past three to the Cowboys, Bears, and Chargers — this is a much better matchup for the Eagles’ defense.
I like the Eagles defense to come out hungry and eat without saying their prayers. I played Las Vegas’ First Quarter Team Total Under 0.5 (-122).
Pick: Raiders 1Q Team Total Under 0.5 (1 unit)
Cardinals at Texans (-10.5): O/U 42.5
Houston is on a five-game winning streak and 6-1 over the last seven as the AFC South heats up. The Texans defense has been on another level as they’ve held the last four opponents to 19 or fewer points and the previous two (Colts, Chiefs) to six combined first half points.
Arizona rolls into this matchup off five consecutive losses with three of them coming by 22 or more points. During the five-game stretch, what really stood out to me was the Cardinals’ lack of early scoring in the road games. Arizona didn’t score a point in the first quarters at Seattle and Tampa Bay, but combined for 21 points in the three home games.
Arizona ranks 30th in first quarter points per game on the road (2.2) and we’re getting plus-money (+100) to the First Quarter Team Toal Under 2.5 at Houston. Sign me up!
Pick: Cardinals 1Q Team Total Under 0.5 (1 unit)
Colts at Seahawks (-13.5): O/U 41.5
Philip Rivers last played on Dec. 8, 2020, and he suits up for a road trip to Seattle in 2025. That’s how bad quarterback play and development has been in college and the NFL.
Well, regardless, this is a horrid matchup for Rivers and a lifeless Colts team. The Seahawks have the best EPA pass defense over the last two months and are dominant at home with 1.47 points per drive allowed (2nd). It’s a defense that creates pressure and limits big plays through the air. I am not sure how the Colts get rolling and do not play believe in Rivers knowledge in the system creating any success. I went Colts First Quarter Team Total Under 0.5 (-112) and Rivers Under 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (-129).
Pick: Colts 1Q Team Total Under 0.5 (1 unit), Philip Rivers Under 0.5 Passing TDs (1 unit)
Panthers (-2.5) at Saints: O/U 40.5
In the first matchup of the season, the Saints won 17-7 right before their bye week. New Orleans held Carolina scoreless in the second half and Tyler Shough put together one of his better performances. However, a lot has changed since that meeting and Carolina sits in the drivers seat of the NFC South.
In the last three games for the Saints, the offense has put up 10, 17, and 24 points, so trending in the right direction. However, out of the 51 points scored, only 14 of them came in the first half (27.4%), which has been a theme this season. With one of the worst red zone touchdown rates in football and a league-low 1.28 points per drive at home — I will go Saints First Half Team Total Under 9.5 at +102 odds.
Pick: Saints 1H Team Total Under 9.5 (1 unit)
Titans at 49ers (-12.5): O/U 44.5
Cam Ward and the Titans went all-out in a 31-29 win over Shedeur Sanders and the Browns last week, so I question what the effort looks like when they travel across the country to face the 49ers. When Tennessee won its first game of the season, the following week they lost at Las Vegas, 20-10, and trailed 10-0 at the half.
The 49ers defense has been tough to trust, and so has Brock Purdy at times, but I am buying into both in this matchup. The Titans are a bottom-five pass defense down the field, and Purdy has struggled in that area, plus without pressure, the Titans aren’t forcing turnovers and rank bottom five in yards per completion (8.8) and touchdown rate (6.4%). I think the Titans snooze early and go Under 0.5 points in the First Quarter (+105) and Purdy goes Under 0.5 interceptions (-113).
Pick: Brock Purdy Under 0.5 Interceptions (1 unit), Titans 1Q Team Total Under 0.5 (1 unit)
NFL Future:
Jaxson Dart to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (+270)
It’s looking like a two-playe race between Panthers’ WR Tetairoa McMillan and Giants’ QB Jaxson Dart. Carolina has a chance to lead the NFC South with a road win over New Orleans today, which could drive McMillan’s price toward -200, to be honest, but I think Dart could see his price cut, too.
With a matchup against Washington today, then Minnesota, Las Vegas, and Dallas to wrap up the season — I love all four matchups for the dynamic quarterback. Sure, New York won’t be in the postseason, and Carolina may or may not, but Dart is the future of the Giants has had success with and without Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo this season.
Dart is currently 2-6 as a starter with 18 total touchdowns (11 pass, 7 rush) to three interceptions. His 1,893 total yards and 63.6 completion percentage are nothing to scoff at either. If he can stack two or more wins over the last four games — I see Dart “stealing” this award. What McMillan has done is awesome, 57 receptions for 826 yards and six touchdowns, but unless he has crazy numbers over the final four games — we’ve seen seasons like this year-in and year-out from rookie wide receivers.
Pick: Jaxson Dart to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (1 unit)
Dak Prescott to win Comeback Player of the Year (+125)
Comeback Player of the Year is between Christian McCaffrey (-135) and Dak Prescott. I’ve had tickets on Prescott since the preseason, so it’s time to make this official.
With four games left, Prescott is on pace to set career-highs in completion percentage (69%), completions and pass attempts (on pace for 436/632). Prescott has an impressive touchdown to interception ratio (26-10) and will likely finish above 4,500 passing yards as one of the league’s leading passers, if not the leader.
The last time Prescott missed time was in 2020. He came back in 2021 with 37 touchdown passes, 10 interceptions, and 4,449 passing yards — similar numbers to what he could finish with this year. I like the value and the Cowboys are on Sunday Night Football tonight versus the Vikings and have a Christmas Day game with the Commanders helping push his Comeback Player of the Year agenda.
Pick: Dak Prescott to win Comeback Player of the Year (1 unit)
Season Record: 107-75-1 (58.7%) +24.78 units | 11.36 ROI%
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