After a monster week of over 9 units made, let’s run it back with some early best bets for Sunday’s action! Best of luck and be safe during Halloween weekend!
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!
Bryce Young O/U 30.5 Longest Completion at Packers
The Packers have gotten burned deep over the past two games, once by Aaron Rodgers and Roman Wilson and two more times by Jacoby Brissett to Zay Jones and Marvin Harrison Jr the week before
Is Bryce Young up next? I think not. Less than 17% of the Panthers’ plays have gone for 10 or more yards, ahead of only the Saints and the Packers allow an NFL-low 5.9 yards per pass attempt. I am going Under 30.5 longest completion (-124) for Young at Lambeau Field.
Pick: Bryce Young Under 30.5 Longest Completion (1u)
Christian McCaffrey O/U 14.5 Longest Rush at Giants
The 49ers and the Saints are the only two teams in the NFL without a 20-yard run and I think that changes when the 49ers go to MetLife to take on the Giants.
New York has allowed an NFL-high 18.7% of runs against them to go for 10 or more yards and Christian McCaffrey is looking for a bounce back game after totaling 25 rushing yards on eight carries last week in a loss to the Texans. Only the Chiefs and Saints have failed to record a rush over 15 yards against the Giants this season.
McCaffrey’s season-high for a longest rush is 15 yards, which he set two games ago, but I believe he resets Sunday. I like CMC to go Over his 14.5 longest rush prop up to 15.5.
Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 14.5 Longest Rush (1 unit)
Bears (-2.5) at Bengals: O/U 51.5
Two of the worst defenses in terms of success rate meet on Sunday when Chicago and Cincinnati link. However, there are a few major differences in the defenses.
Chicago owns the second-best third-down defensive percentage in the NFL (31.88%) compared to Cincy’s ranking second-worst (48.48%), while the Bengals have allowed 89.8% of rushing plays to go for a positive gain against them — the mark worst in the NFL. I think the Bears get a bounce-back win and the offense moves the ball all over the field on this Bengals’ defense.
Pick: Bears -2.5 (1 unit)
Broncos at Texans (-1.5): O/U 39.5
I feel like the Texans being favored is meant to be telling, but I am not too sure what to make of it. What I do know is that this game should be low-scoring and I think the first quarter starts out that way.
Denver and Houston both have elite defenses. This season, they both rank top three in third-down percentage, top four in points per drive allowed, top two in forced punts per possession and success rate against pass plays. I am not sure either team will even find the red zone often as both rank top-six in opponent red zone opportunities.
The Texans were bombed by the Seahawks 14-0 in the first quarter after the bye week then led 3-0 to the 49ers the next week, while the Broncos are playing their first true road game since October 5 (Oct. 12th was overseas). I don’t love the road spot for the Broncos offense nor do I trust the Texans offense, so give me the first quarter Under 7.5 points (-142).
Pick: 1Q Under 7.5 (1 unit)
Colts (-3) at Steelers: O/U 50.5
I said before the Bengals game that the Steelers would lose four straight games starting with Cincinnati and we are halfway home to that prediction. As a logical Steelers, I never saw the hype a lot of other media personalities did, but I watch every game, so I get it.
The Colts and Steelers to me are not on the same level. What Indianapolis has been doing is truly impressive and I don’t see the Colts coming down to Earth until maybe after the bye week when they go to Kansas City. Of course, favorites dominated the NFL last week, so there is the crowd that believes all the underdogs are barking this week, but I don’t see it.
The Colts lead the NFL in success rate on offense and the Steelers rank 29th on defense. Indianapolis leads the league in big plays and Pittsburgh has give up 450-plus yards in back-to-back games for the second time in franchise history. It could happen again here.
Mike Tomlin‘s days are numbered if he doesn’t draft a franchise quarterback in first round and I am going out on a limb and saying this could end up being his first losing season with Pittsburgh. Give me the Colts -3 (-120).
Pick: Colts -3 (1 unit)
Season Record: 67-46 (59%) +16.51 units | 12.09 ROI%
Week 8 Record: 19-9 (67.8%) +9.1 units
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