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We’ve made it to the final on the women’s side at Wimbledon. A new Grand Slam champion will be crowned as two first-time finalists take the court, and two women who have been excellent here at the All England Club.
This one’s sure to be an outstanding match with two excellent ball-strikers, and I’ll waste no more time in breaking it down.
Elena Rybakina (+130) vs. Ons Jabeur (-159)
Let’s start off by saying that these two women are undoubtedly the two best players on grass at the moment, and two very deserving finalists. Jabeur has had an excellent season and established herself as the clear second-best player on tour after Iga Swiatek, and Rybakina has seen her already-great stock skyrocket over the last two weeks.
I have to disagree with this line, however. On paper — sure — Jabeur is probably a short favorite over Rybakina, a less-experienced player than Jabeur. With that said, the Kazakh is unquestionably the hotter player at the moment, and while the Tunisian has plenty of experience on tour at the age of 27, she’s never been to a Grand Slam final. This is uncharted territory for both.
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Rybakina hits huge — I mean, really huge. She is crushing her backhand deep into the court, and she’s coming off of one of the best serving performances I’ve ever seen. The World No. 23 won 70% of points behind her first serve against the best returner in the world in Simona Halep, and a player who won Wimbledon the last time she entered the tournament.
Jabeur hits big, but it’s worth noting the points won behind her first serve aren’t anywhere close to Rybakina, nor is her first serve percentage. The serve is going to be a massive weapon for Rybakina here, and one which I think at least makes this match a pick ‘em.
We’ve also seen Jabeur drop her level in each of her last three matches, losing a set in each of the last two and narrowly escaping Elise Mertens in two as a heavy favorite. You can’t afford a lapse in focus or a drop in level against a server like Rybakina who, again, was broken just once by the best returner in the world.
I see a ton of value in Rybakina here and would make this match very close to a pick ‘em.
Edge: Rybakina +130
