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With the WNBA wrapping up its regular season on Sunday and with the playoffs kicking off on Sept. 23, it is a perfect time for us to revisit the futures market.
One playoff spot is still up for grabs heading into the final regular-season day, but we know the four teams who have already clinched a first-round bye: the Connecticut Sun, the Las Vegas Aces, the Minnesota Lynx, and the Seattle Storm. Below is a breakdown of those four teams along with their WNBA Championship odds from PointsBet Sportsbook.
WNBA Championship 2021: Odds
Connecticut Sun +180
The Sun went from starting the season as a long-shot pick to win the WNBA Championship at +1000 to the current betting favorite at +180. The Sun will finish with the best regular-season record. They could head into the playoffs on a 14-game winning streak if they take care of business against the Atlanta Dream in their regular-season finale tomorrow afternoon.
Curt Miller’s side has bought into the motto of “defense wins championships.” They hold opponents to an average of 70.1 points per game and allow teams to convert on just 41% of their shot attempts.
Individually, the Sun have the best player in the WNBA this season in Jonquel Jones. She averages 19.5 points, 2.8 assists and 11.3 rebounds per game (first in the WNBA) while shooting 52.1% from the field. Connecticut will also have a fully healthy Alyssa Thomas heading into the playoffs. She has recently recovered from an achilles injury and saw her first minutes this season earlier in the week. Thomas averaged 15.5 points, 4.8 assists, and 9.0 rebounds during the 2020 season.
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Las Vegas Aces +225
The Aces were seen as the favorite to win the WNBA championship by most bookmakers for the majority of the year. They will finish second in the league standings and be given a double-bye to the semifinal after their victory over the Chicago Sky on Friday night.
It is hard to find a flaw in this Aces team. They lead the league in points per game and rebounds per game with 89.4 and 38.8, respectively. Defensively, they hold opponents to a field goal rating of 41.4% (second in the WNBA) and have a defensive rating of 95.6 (second in the WNBA).
Head coach Bill Laimbeer has a very deep roster to work with, starting with reigning MVP A’ja Wilson. The Aces’ bench produces an average of 25.2 points per game.
Seattle Storm +300
The Storm are the current defending champions. They started the year as the betting favorite at +160 but have fallen to +300 odds, mainly due to the uncertainty of Breanna Stewart‘s health.
When asked about Stewart’s injury status yesterday, head coach Noelle Quinn said, “If the playoffs were Friday, Stewie [Breanna Stewart] would not play...I would say no...” (via The Seattle Times).
🗣️ 𝐋𝐄𝐓'𝐒 𝐆𝐎𝐎𝐎𝐎𝐎 ‼️
— Seattle Storm (@seattlestorm) September 18, 2021
First round bye in the #WNBA Playoffs 𝐒𝐄𝐂𝐔𝐑𝐄𝐃! ✅
Tickets will go on sale Sunday at 6 pm PT! 🎟️@Symetra x #TakeCover pic.twitter.com/pajcM7OAVV
However, if Stewart returns in time for the playoff and is fully fit, the Storm have great value at these odds. They have already claimed one trophy this season, defeating the Connecticut Sun in the inaugural Commissioner’s Cup, and are leading the league in fast-break points and 3-point percentage.
Minnesota Lynx +800
The Lynx were not a team expected to be in contention to win a Championship at the start of the season. They began the year with +1400 odds, and after their 0-4 start, the bookmakers boosted them as high as +2500.
However, the Lynx have turned it on in the second half of the season. Minnesota has a 13-2 record through the final three months, which is the best in WNBA behind the Connecticut Sun.
Head coach Cheryl Reeves has her team playing smart basketball. The Lynx have the second-highest effective field goal percentage in the league at 50.9%
Final WNBA Championship Prediction & Pick
The Aces are the best all-around team this season. They are excellent on the offensive side of the ball but can also win games with their defense on an off-shooting night. I project them to be champions when everything is said and done.
As far as a value pick, you can’t beat Minnesota at +800. It has shown over the past few months that the Lynx are one of the top teams in the league. They also have wins against the other top contenders this season, so they will not lack any confidence heading into the playoffs.
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