Saturday gave us one of the wildest single days in college football history, with five teams ranked in the top 11 of the AP poll losing — and four of those teams losing to unranked opponents. It was, in a word, chaos.
And chaos makes the College Football Playoff more complicated. The good news for the actual CFP selection committee? The group doesn’t meet for another four weeks, so there will be plenty of additional data points and results to help round out the picture before those 13 committee members have to rank these teams Nos. 1 through 25.
But incomplete resumes has never stopped anyone from analyzing the Playoff picture, and upsets won’t stop me, either. The beauty of the new 12-team CFP format is that one loss doesn’t automatically disqualify a team, but it might knock ‘em out of my CFP snapshot immediately following it. So, even though Alabama has the best win of anyone in the country (over Georgia), I don’t have the Crimson Tide in my bracket right now because of its loss to Vanderbilt (and six consecutive quarters of porous defense). But Alabama can certainly play its way back into the field, and it’ll have lots of opportunities to with its remaining SEC schedule.
Texas jumped back up to the No. 1 spot in the AP poll this week — thank goodness for idle weeks! — and the Longhorns are back in the top spot in my CFP bracket as well. Their best win is better than Ohio State’s, though the Buckeyes have a major opportunity to change that this Saturday when they travel to Eugene, Ore.
I’ve moved Clemson up to the No. 3 spot as the ACC champion. The Tigers have played extremely well since the Week 1 loss, and I think some of my peers are penalizing them too much for a lopsided loss to one of the best teams in the country. It’s possible that others believe stronger in the quality of wins as opposed to the weight of losses, but I personally think we need to hold teams accountable for the losses they suffer. (I’ll get to Notre Dame in just a second.) And, after Miami needed to escape for a second consecutive week, it’s time to recognize Clemson as the new frontrunner in the ACC. It’d actually be pretty funny and perhaps fitting, after all of those obituaries written about the death of Dabo Swinney’s dynasty, that the Tigers go out and win the league and its auto-bid this season.
I’ve also moved BYU up to the No. 4 spot as the Big 12 champion. It’s a bit of a reset for me, acknowledging that the unbeaten Cougs deserve the top spot considering their head-to-head win over Kansas State, a team I consider a top contender in the league. Now, I recognize that Texas Tech is the actual Big 12 leader right now (because the Red Raiders have played three league games), but this is based on the caliber of BYU’s best win.
The at-large bids are quite difficult to hand out right now. I’m not sure Penn State is really one of the best at-large teams in the country right now, but the Nittany Lions have been relatively consistent and steady, which is why I’m giving them the edge over Miami (which needed a pair of dramatic come-from-behind wins to stay unbeaten) for the time being. Beyond that, we’re talking about deeply flawed teams. Notre Dame has played well enough to stay in the mix after its brutal loss to Northern Illinois, and it does need Louisville to snap its losing skid to remain a signature win at the end of the season, but for now I’m encouraged by the win over the Cardinals, some improvement in the passing attack and its strong defense enough to put the Irish in my bracket. (I’ll acknowledge that this logic also makes sense for Texas A&M, whose lone loss looks better now, too, and the Aggies will get more thorough consideration next week.)
Ole Miss’ loss to Kentucky looks less damaging a week later considering the caliber of losses that Alabama and Tennessee endured. So, the Rebels jump back up and into the CFP bracket for now, too. Kentucky might be pretty good! That league is wildly confusing at the moment, which is part of the reason I lean Big Ten for the final at-large spot. And who better than the 6-0 Hoosiers? Curt Cignetti’s crew has Indiana off to its best start in nearly six decades, and there is nothing fluky about how the Hoosiers are winning games. They’re fundamentally sound on both sides of the ball with a great quarterback in Kurtis Rourke. There are no marquee wins on their resume yet, but there are no significant flaws — with a lot of winnable games left on this schedule.
Meanwhile, after UNLV’s loss to Syracuse, I’ve moved Boise State into the field as my highest-ranked Group of 5 champion. Ashton Jeanty is not just one of the most outstanding players in college football but also likely the first running back taken in next spring’s NFL draft. The Broncos struggle on the defensive side of the ball (to put it mildly), but I do hope this Jeanty-powered offense takes them far this year. If Boise State ends up winning the Mountain West with its only loss coming to Oregon in a tight game, this team could have a good chance at the No. 4 seed line. It’ll all depend on who wins the Big 12 and how much its top teams beat up on each other, but it’s definitely within the realm of possibility to have the G5 champion ranked ahead of the Big 12 champion at the end of the season. I don’t have that possibility reflected in my bracket at this time, but I want to make sure everyone is ready for that potential. Crazier things have happened in this crazy sport, after all.
