Paul Finebaum has watched the last three national championship games, and he saw the three trophies lifted by three different Big Ten teams. He then observed as the Big Ten had more players selected in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft than the SEC.
Put it this way: The SEC has lost its championship edge. Its top-end talent advantage is gone, too. The pundit who doubles as one of the faces of SEC football has decided to simply acknowledge the new world order — at least, until proven otherwise.
“I have waved this flag for the SEC for a long time. You have to put that flag down at some point,” Finebaum said last month. “Just let the field do the talking. Whether it’s Nick Saban last week saying the SEC is still the best, just makes the SEC look ridiculous. And it shouldn’t look ridiculous. It’s a great football conference, but it hasn’t won the title. So, for my friends in the SEC, just shut up already. Get to September, play football, and let’s see if you can change the narrative.”
Top storylines in the SEC
Can the SEC conquer college football again?
When the preseason AP poll came out this week, Big Ten teams (Ohio State, Oregon) occupied the two top spots. Georgia was the top SEC team, ranked No. 3 overall, with Texas checking in at No. 5. No SEC team received a single first-place vote, which is notable — and would have seemed unfathomable a few short years ago.
But in this new, everchanging world of college football, the SEC is far less dominant than it used to be in both the BCS and four-team College Football Playoff eras. The SEC has been absent from the national championship game in each of the past three years; the Big Ten has won three consecutive titles (with three different teams).
The SEC still has a ton of talent, great coaches and rabid fan bases. Its depth is unparalleled (and usually backed up with all sorts of metrics). But its top-end teams have not been able to beat the best teams in the Big Ten recently. In fact, the Big Ten is 8-2 vs. the SEC in the postseason these last two years. The SEC may (fairly) argue it is the strongest conference in America top to bottom, but its top is not the best in the sport right now.
Can Georgia or Texas snap the skid? Will Lane Kiffin’s LSU Tigers contend for a national championship right away? And what of Alabama, the team we’re so used to seeing playing on the final night of the season? It Just Means More down south, but lately, it’s meant less.
Nine-game nightmares
The SEC adding a ninth conference game won’t make anything easier for anyone, either.
The coaches realize this, which is what’s behind their offseason push for the College Football Playoff selection committee to recognize and reward difficult schedules.
Georgia coach Kirby Smart said at spring meetings that “there may be some regret” going to a nine-game SEC schedule with the current 12-team CFP format now that he’s seen a number of 9-3 SEC teams on the wrong side of the cut line and teams with easier schedules and fewer losses make the field comfortably.
“I’m blaming the system because I don’t know that it can recognize and truly say strength of schedule matters, putting a team with one more loss in the loss column over a team that might have one (fewer loss),” Smart said. “Going to nine, are we going to get the reward, the bang for the buck on the strength of schedule?”
We’ll see. But the angst goes beyond simply CFP inclusion. With an additional conference game for 16 teams comes eight extra losses across the league. That could be the difference between bowl eligibility and a long offseason. That could be the difference between a respectable 8-4 and an underwhelming 7-5. It could cost coaches their jobs.
The Lane Train arrives at LSU
Lane Kiffin doesn’t do much like a normal person. He certainly doesn’t take and leave jobs like anyone else in college football, which is why his first season in Baton Rouge is appointment viewing. He left Ole Miss before the Rebels were set to make and play in the Playoff for the very first time, burning every last bridge on his way out of Oxford.
By choosing to leave Ole Miss in the midst of a historic season for LSU, Kiffin was essentially telling us all that he believes he can win a national title at LSU and that he didn’t believe he could do that at Ole Miss. Well, now’s the time to prove it.
Kiffin has an incredible level of resourcing and support — even the governor is on board — and brought in an impressive transfer portal class, headlined by former Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt. The real work begins now, as the Tigers try to get back to the College Football Playoff for the first time since their 2019 national title season.
Three of the four head coaches before Kiffin won national titles at LSU. That is the expectation there. That is the standard. That is what makes this job so intoxicating to coaches, but it’s also what leads to a coach like Brian Kelly getting fired midway through his fourth season after averaging 9.6 wins per season over the first three.
Can the offensive wunderkind win it all with the Tigers? We’ll find out soon enough.
Arch Madness 2.0
This time last year, the mania surrounding Arch Manning was at a fever pitch. The Texas quarterback was the preseason favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, and the Texas Longhorns were the preseason No. 1 in the AP poll. Even though Manning had been on the bench behind Quinn Ewers for two years for a reason, expectations were sky-high for the son of Cooper and nephew of Eli and Peyton. And then the season began, and things got rocky.
Arch Manning has said this offseason that he’s learned from and moved on from his rough outings a season ago and that he’s matured as both a player and person. And he’ll have more weapons around him, with former Auburn receiver Cam Coleman and NC State running back Hollywood Smothers transferring in — two of the most explosive and productive skill position players on the market last year.
Still, Manning will be the one whose touchdowns will be featured in highlights and whose wobbly passes will make the rounds on social media. The success or failure of the Longhorns’ season will come down to his development, and he knows that.
The expected CFP contenders
Georgia
The SEC should run through Athens again, thanks to a returning quarterback who is better than people give him credit for being, a strong run game and another elite Kirby Smart defense. I’m quite confident that Georgia will be the class of the conference again (at least, until Steve Sarkisian solves his Smart problem), but I am a little concerned about what happens after. The Bulldogs have not won a CFP game since the 2022 season. That is … very strange! But they can cross that bridge when they get there.
Texas
The Longhorns entered last year with the loftiest of expectations, and the season was derailed by a trio of losses and defined largely by inconsistent quarterback play. But Sark was super aggressive in the portal, landing some of the best skill position players in the country, and he made it clear he expects more from the defensive side of the ball as well. Now, the Week 2 game against Ohio State will be the early test to see if Sark’s tweaks paid off, but even if that game gets away from the Longhorns, they still have enough talent and experience to get back to the Playoff.
Texas A&M
A season ago, Mike Elko figured out how to get the Aggies over the hump. They proved they can be contenders both in the SEC and in the CFP, and now they must prepare to take the next step. And that step needs to come on the offensive side of the ball, as evidenced by the unit putting up just three points against Miami in the biggest game of the season. Quarterback Marcel Reed needs to be both better and more consistent. He’ll have explosive receivers at the ready, but will new offensive coordinator Holmon Wiggins be up for the task as the new play-caller? Wiggins, the receivers coach a season ago, was promoted to the gig after Collin Klein left for his alma mater, Kansas State. That’s a fairly large question mark heading into the season.
Ole Miss (?)
The Rebels are coming off their first-ever CFP appearance, and they didn’t just reach the Playoff — they reached the national semifinals and were this close to playing for a national championship trophy. And, despite all of the drama surrounding Lane Kiffin’s departure to LSU, they were able to retain some key coaches as well as quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and star running back Kewan Lacy. I feel confident that the offense will put up a ton of points and account for a ton of yardage. I am not sure what to think about the Ole Miss defense, and I’m also not sure what to think of the Ole Miss defensive coordinator-turned-head coach, Pete Golding. He led the Rebels to two huge postseason victories a season ago, but now this is his program and his show. I’m in wait-and-see mode right now.
Alabama/LSU/Oklahoma/Tennessee
I’m grouping these teams together because I feel confident that one or two of them will emerge over the course of the season … but I’m not sure which one(s). If Kiffin can navigate a highly scrutinized environment, LSU certainly has the talent on its roster to make the CFP. If Alabama can figure out how to establish a run game, it should be able to get back to the Playoff. If John Mateer stays healthy, so should Oklahoma. Tennessee has a difficult schedule, but that means plenty of opportunities for top-10 wins to anchor a CFP-caliber resume. Those things cannot all happen, because there are simply too many losses to go around in the SEC this fall. But all four are teams to consider in the CFP mix.
Keeping an eye on: Florida (as a potential spoiler for those listed above)
The hottest seat
Shane Beamer, South Carolina. There actually aren’t a ton of super-hot seats in the SEC coming into the season because so many jobs turned over last year. You’ve got first-year head coaches at Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU and Ole Miss. One of the hot-seat coaches a year ago (Brent Venables) turned things around and took his team to the CFP. Now, attention turns to Beamer, who is 33-30 through five seasons at South Carolina. There have been some obvious highlights — the top-10 upsets over Tennessee and Clemson in 2022 and all those wins over ranked teams in Nov. 2024 — but the Gamecocks are also coming off a disappointing 4-8 campaign despite having three of the most electrifying athletes in college football on the roster (LaNorris Sellers, Nyck Harbor and Dylan Stewart). Beamer’s seat is definitely warm as the 2026 season begins.
Award predictions
Coach of the Year: Steve Sarkisian, Texas. It’s not often that the COY award goes to the head coach of one of the league’s top teams. But if the Longhorns deliver this season — and I think they will — so much of the credit for that can and should go to Sark. He’s the one who made the decision to fire a very good defensive coordinator to bring in Will Muschamp to make the defense elite. He’s the one who got Coleman and Smothers to sign on, part of an aggressive portal approach that could pay off in a big way.
Offensive Player of the Year: Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss. I may not be a big believer in the Rebels overall this season, but I do know that the offense is going to be incredibly prolific. Chambliss finished in the top 10 of Heisman voting last year despite not starting a game until Week 3 — his numbers were that impressive, and he was that important to the Rebels’ success. He threw for nearly 4,000 yards and 22 touchdowns (to just three interceptions) last year, and he’ll put up even more eye-popping numbers this year.
Defensive Player of the Year: Colin Simmons, Texas. The Longhorns edge rusher is undoubtedly one of the best defenders in the country. He tallied 12 sacks and forced three fumbles last year, and he should have another monster season. Again, I’m a believer in the Longhorns, and if they churn out one of the best defenses in the country, there are going to be a lot of postseason accolades coming Simmons’ way.
Must-see SEC matchups
Sept. 19: LSU at Ole Miss
Oct. 10: Georgia at Alabama
Oct. 17: Alabama at Tennessee
Nov. 7: Alabama at LSU | Georgia at Ole Miss
Nov. 14: Tennessee at Texas A&M
Nov. 27: Texas at Texas A&M
