Welcome to Mixing It Up, a weekly column where I look at starting pitchers who are making noteworthy changes to their pitch mix or pitch shape/velocity. In this column, I’ll break down three to five pitchers each week who have shown a change in their profile that has me intrigued. It won’t always be a pitcher who requires an immediate add but could be somebody who has worked his way onto our fantasy baseball radars or a pitcher I think is set to begin a productive stretch. I’ll always try to make sure we have enough of a sample size to work with and I’ll be mixing in both shallow and deep league targets, so there should be a little something for everyone.
In the last few weeks we identified some positive changes in Luis Medina , Steven Matz, Freddy Peralta , Cole Ragans , and Chase Silseth before major breakouts so hopefully we can hit on a few more arms making intriguing changes.
With that said, let’s dig in to this week’s pitchers of note.
Logan Webb - San Francisco Giants
Historically speaking, Logan Webb has made his name as a sinker-slider pitcher, throwing those two pitches 65% of the time in 2021 and 65.6% of the time in 2022. However, this season has seen him shift to more of a sinker-change approach, with his change-up becoming his most-used pitch at 39.7% usage.
That has been taken to another level in August, with Webb throwing his change-up 54.1% of the time across three starts. That’s after already upping the usage to 43% in July.
On the surface, the modification in usage makes sense since the change-up has been his best pitch. On the season, it has a .217 batting average against (.223 xBA), .304 SLG allowed (.305 xSLG), 25.8% whiff rate, 16.9% SwStr%, 1.82 dERA, and 4.4% barrel rate allowed.
In fact, it’s his only pitch with a SwStr% better than 11% and a dERA lower than 4.80, so it makes sense that he wants to lean on the pitch more. However, with the added usage has also come a shift in the way he’s throwing the pitch, which you can see when you look at his horizontal approach angle.
Horizontal approach angle factors in a pitcher’s release point, pitch location, and pitch movement to measure left-to-right (or right-to-left) angle as the pitch enters the strike zone. A pitch with a negative value means a pitch that moved from right-to-left towards left-handed batters, while a pitch with a positive value means a pitch that move from left-to-right towards right-handed batters.
In April, Webb’s change-up had a -.42-degree horizontal attack angle (the right-most column below) and 9.3 inches of horizontal movement (the middle column).
In August, that horizontal attack angle is just -0.06 degrees with 12.9 inches of horizontal movement.
What that means is that, despite having a bit more movement on the pitch over the summer, Webb is attacking the zone in a more diverse way, utilizing the pitch away from right-handed hitters as well.
This makes sense. If Webb is going to use the pitch more then he needs to mix up how he uses it to keep hitters guessing on location. While that has meant the pitch misses fewer bats since change-ups away aren’t usually swing-and-miss pitches, the increased reliance on the change-up and reduction of his mediocre sinker has helped Webb to his best month of the season so far with a 1.69 ERA and 2.79 xFIP.
At the end of the day, this new approach will likely make Webb a bit more consistent when it comes to ratios and a bit worse when it comes to strikeouts. Since you weren’t drafting him for strikeouts anyway, so it should come out as a win for fantasy managers.
Brandon Williamson - Cincinnati Reds
Very quietly, Reds rookie Brandon Williamson has been turning into a solid big league pitcher lately. Since July 1st, the big left-hander has a 2.98 ERA (4.14 SIERA), 0.99 WHIP, and 25.3% strikeout rate across 42.1 innings. A big reason for that has been his decision to start throwing his cutter harder and with more bite in on right-handed hitters.
In April, Williamson was throwing his cutter 87.5 mph with 2.5 inches of cut. By July, he was throwing the pitch 90 mph, and in August he held the velocity and added even more cut, now throwing it with 3.9 inches of movement. The results have followed.
After allowing an 11.3% barrel rate on the pitch in May and June, it had a 7.7% barrel rate allowed in July and has allowed no barrels so far in August. The pitch also had an 11.40 dERA in June, 2.07 dERA in July, and -1.62 dERA in August. It’s also posted a 12.7% SwStr% in August after posting a 9.7% mark in July and 8.5% rate in June.
Any way you slice it, the cutter has been better for Williamson as he has thrown it harder and with more movement. He also seems to understand that too since he’s using the pitch 33.9% of the time in August after throwing it just 22.5% of the time in June.
With a good change-up and a solid four-seam fastball, Williamson now has three pitches that he can rely on and a curveball that has been performing really well in limited usage. All of which suggests that there is enough here for him to emerge as a reliable starter in deeper fantasy leagues and a solid streamer in more shallow formats.
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Urquidy has made two starts in August after spending three months on the IL with a right shoulder injury. While those two starts have only amounted to 8.1 innings with six earned runs allowed, they have also given us a sign of of a potentially intriguing development with his sweeper.
In April, Urquidy was throwing his sweeper 81.4 mph with an average of 7.9 inches of horizontal movement and 35.5 inches of drop, according to Brooks Baseball. Since returning in August, his sweeper has been 80.1 mph with 8.9 inches of horizontal movement and 38.4 inches of drop.
Granted, it’s a small sample size, so it might not be actionable just yet, but it’s worth watching. In those two starts coming off the IL, the pitch has allowed a .200 average (.141 xBA) with a 28.6% whiff rate, which is actually down from 37.3% in April.
He has also paired that change with a curveball that is now 79.9 mph after being 78.1 mph last season. The pitch has less vertical drop from previous years and a bit more horizontal movement, which potentially allows it to work better off of the slower and sweepier slider. As a result, this season Urquidy has a 28.9% whiff rate on the curve, which is the best mark of his career.
While the results haven’t been there yet, Urquidy had a solid second start, allowing one run in five innings against the Angels with seven strikeouts. He has always had a decent change-up, so if he can pair that with a curve that misses more bats and a slider that can reduce hard contact, he can re-assert himself as an intriguing fantasy starter.
Remember that, for all his faults, Urquidy did post a 3.94 ERA last year and a 3.61 ERA in 2021, so while he may not miss as many bats as we like, he deserves to be rostered in most formats.
Michael Lorenzen - Philadelphia Phillies
We had a change that may have directly led to a no hitter being thrown, so you know we have to talk about it. This one is easy too because the pitcher in question told us directly that he was making a change to his pitch.
After throwing his no hitter, Michael Lorenzen did an interview with the Delco Times where he said, “I’ve been in search for my changeup for a couple of years now, my good changeup.” It turns out that current Phillies pitching coach Caleb Cotham , who used to be Lorenzen’s teammate had the answer. “He had a picture of my grip from back in 2019 when it was at its best,” said Lorenzen, “and we were able to see differences in how I’m gripping my changeup now.”
The new/old grip led to a change-up that averaged 83 mph after averaging 84.7 mph on the season. The grip and lower velocity also created more drop on the pitch, which likely led to the improved whiff rate. In his no hitter, Lorenzen threw the change-up 37 times, he had a 44% whiff rate, 27% CSW, and recorded three strikeouts.
What’s more, it appears that Lorenzen was also releasing the change-up higher, which may also be a result of how he’s comfortable releasing the pitch with his modified grip. The higher release point also created a bit more deception with his fastball, which you can see in the GIF below.
Michael Lorenzen, Fastball/Changeup Mechanics Overlay (slow). pic.twitter.com/fteSXdWB6N
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 10, 2023
All-in-all, Lorenzen was able to identify a weakness with his best pitch and alter it in order to get improved results. We love to see that. While it likely won’t led to another no hitter and Lorenzen is at risk of being moved to the bullpen due to innings concerns, it seems likely that we will continue to see this better version of the veteran going forward thanks to his improved change-up.
