Bailey Ober back from IL for Thursday start

It was Ober’s first start since May 30th as he’s been on the IL with elbow inflammation. The 30-year-old struck out five and walked one on Thursday while throwing 65 percent of his pitches for strikes. His four-seam velocity was 88.2 mph, which is not great but actually not too far off from what we’ve seen from him this year. The calling card on Thursday was a sweeper that posted a 45 percent swinging strike rate. He struggled to miss bats with anything else, and his velocity still scares us, so we would not be adding him with the Cubs up next.

There are plenty of moving parts here. Simply put, Mike Paredes will shift to a long relief role in place of rookie Marco Raya, who is headed to the injured list with a shoulder impingement, with Ober returning to Minnesota’s rotation. The 30-year-old has been out with a mild flexor strain that put him on the shelf back in late May. His immediate fantasy appeal is limited to deeper mixed leagues as a matchup-dependent back-end rotation option.

Ober kicked off a rehab assignment by allowing three runs over 3 1/3 innings for High-A Cedar Rapids last Sunday. The 30-year-old starter is working his way back from a mild flexor strain that put him on the shelf back in late May. He figures to be ready to rejoin Minnesota’s pitching mix at some point in early-to-mid July. His fantasy appeal is limited to deeper mixed leagues as a matchup-dependent back-end rotation arm.

Ober will receive a second opinion to confirm that his UCL remains intact, but it’s an extremely encouraging initial diagnosis after hitting the injured list with elbow inflammation over the weekend. There should be a definitive return table once he’s cleared to resume throwing later this month.

Ober was pounded for eight runs (seven earned) over 4 2/3 innings in a loss to the Pirates on Sunday and it sounds like the elbow issue may have played a role in his struggles. No word from the team yet on how long they expect him to be sidelined for. Travis Adams was recalled from Triple-A St. Paul in a corresponding move on Sunday.

Ober gave up a leadoff homer to Spencer Horwitz in the first inning and stranded two more runners with a pair of strikeouts to end the inning. Things really got away from him in the second, starting with a solo homer by Jake Mangum. The Pirates brought two more runs in on three hits and a walk, leaving two runners on for Oneil Cruz, who took Ober deep for a three-run blast. The Twins left Ober in to give them a little more length. He’d pitch into the fifth, giving up one more run and leaving with two outs in the inning. The 30-year-old right-hander has now given up 14 runs over his last three starts, giving him a 4.59 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and a 46/18 K/BB ratio across 66 2/3 innings. He’ll take on the Royals in Minnesota on Thursday.

Ober gave up seven hits, walked none and struck out three. He improved to 6-2 with the win. Ober allowed a solo home run in the second inning to Masataka Yoshida, which was his first of the season. The hard contact continued in the fourth inning as the Red Sox started the inning with a double by Wilyer Abreu, a two-run home run by Willson Contreras and a double by Yoshida. Ober has a 3.92 ERA this year, but his xFIP is 4.74. He’s lined up to face the Pirates on the road next weekend.

Although he gave up homers to Garrett Mitchell and Christian Yelich and struck out just one batter today, Ober left with a 4-3 lead and was rewarded with his fifth win. Ober generated only three missed swings, all coming on his changeup. His ERA rose to 3.63 ahead of next weekend’s start in Boston.

He fanned seven. Ober threw just 89 pitches, matching Sonny Gray for the lowest total in a shutout since 2022. 89 was also how hard he threw his fastball tonight, or 88.6 mph to be exact. He gave up four hard-hit balls the 34 times he threw that pitch but just one on his other 55 offerings. Ober is now 4-2 with a 3.46 ERA despite his velocity being down 1.6 mph from last year. He also lost 1.5 mph from 2024 to 2025, and his ERA ballooned to 5.10 that season. Given that he’s a flyball pitcher with a modest 18.6 percent strikeout rate, it remains very difficult to recommend him in mixed leagues. This is really impressive what he’s doing, though. He’ll take on the Brewers on Sunday.

Ober nearly had his fourth straight quality start in a row before getting chased in the fifth inning. To that point, he’d allowed just four hits and three runs with a pitch count at 77. Then, he gave up back-to-back doubles, was pulled, and the inherited runner he left came home one pitch later. He got a bit fortunate too, leaving far too many of his changeups in the heart of the plate and somehow avoiding more damage. On the season, he has a 32:14 strikeout to walk ratio with a 4.19 ERA across 43 innings and has a two-start week coming up against the Marlins and Brewers.