Chase Burns strikes out nine in earning 13th win

Unable to pick up his defense, Burns gave up a grand slam three batters after an Edwin Arroyo error in the first. He then allowed one more run on a José Ramírez single, two steals and a sac fly in the fifth. Burns’ velocity today was about one mph lower than usual. He remains a fine enough bet for now, but with the Reds fading from contention, he might not pitch much in September. He’s due to make his next start Sunday against the Pirates, though if that happens, it’d be just his second on four days’ rest in the last two months.

It’ll be made up as a split doubleheader on Tuesday instead. Monday’s original starters Chase Burns and Slade Cecconi will presumably beb pushed back to take the ball at some point during the twin bill.

Making his first start since signing a seven-year, $105 million deal with the Reds, Burns shut the Mariners down over five scoreless frames. He scattered three hits and two walks while striking out six batters. The 23-year-old right-hander ends the day with a 2.42 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and a 124/39 K/BB ratio across 107 2/3 innings. He’ll take on the Guardians in Cincinnati on Monday.

The long-term extension, which was reported earlier this week, is now official and will keep Burns in Cincinnati through the 2033 season. The flame-throwing 23-year-old earned his first All-Star Game appearance, but declined to pitch in the Midsummer Classic because of groin soreness. He’s expected to make his first start of the second half against the Mariners next week. Burns has rapidly established himself as one of fantasy baseball’s upper-echelon starters, compiling a sparkling 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 118/37 K/BB ratio over 102 2/3 innings across 18 starts. It’s safe to say he’s exceeded even the loftiest expectations and should be among the first pitchers selected in fantasy drafts for years to come.

Burns has been absolutely electric in opening up the season 11-1 with a 2.54 ERA while striking out 118 in 102 2/3 innings before the All-Star Break. Opponents are hitting .223 against his fastball and .154 against his slider, which has been Burns’ main putaway pitch so far this year. It’s hard to forecast seven years out for any pitcher, but if a smaller market team is to invest in one for the long term, it’s hard to do much better than Burns.

It sounds like Burns made the decision to bow out of next week’s Midsummer Classic for precautionary reasons to avoid missing any time coming out of the break. It’s a situation that fantasy managers should monitor closely, but the extra time off should help him be ready to take the ball to open the second half. He was replaced on the National League’s roster by Dodgers lefty Justin Wrobleski.

Wrobleski was among the most prominent snubs for the Midsummer Classic. He winds up earning a well-deserved ticket to Philadelphia as a replacement for Reds flame-thrower Chase Burns, who will not pitch in the Midsummer Classic. The 25-year-old southpaw made a real statement in his final first-half outing, piling up nine strikeouts and allowing one run over seven innings against the Rockies earlier this week. He holds a sparkling 2.69 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 73/20 K/BB ratio across 100 1/3 innings of work.

A rare difficult outing for Burns, he didn’t get through a single inning cleanly and felt like he was battling himself all night. His fastball was extremely erratic with just a 44% zone rate and far too many of them wound up at the eyes of the Phillies’ hitters. That issue got worse as the game went on and he wound up being fortunate to get out of this start with just the three runs on his ledger. That’s the mark of a great pitcher though: giving your team a chance to win when you don’t have your best stuff. He’ll head into the All-Star break after an excellent first half with 11 wins, a 2.54 ERA, 118 strikeouts, and 37 walks through 102 2/3 innings.

He struck out only four. Burns’ velocity is dropping some; his 97.1-mph average on his fastball today matched his season low. He’s been under 98 mph in six straight starts after topping that mark in eight of his first 11 starts. His slider is down, too. He averaged 90.8 mph with that pitch in his first 14 starts, but he’s been at 89.6, 89.3 and now 89.1 mph in his last three outings. He’s already at 97 2/3 innings this year after finishing at 109 1/3 in his pro debut last year, so it seems quite possible that fatigue is setting in. He’s due to make his next start Wednesday against the Phillies, which would be his last outing before the break. There’s a good chance he’ll be named to the NL All-Star team, but the Reds might not want him to pitch.

Burns tossed two scoreless innings, then gave up a three-run blast to Brandon Lowe in the third. The Pirates brought another run in on two hits in the fourth. Burns would start the seventh inning, giving up a leadoff double before departing at 93 pitches. The inherited runner would eventually come in to score. Burns struck out ten on the day, his first double-digit strikeout performance of the season. It was just the second outing in which Burns allowed more than three runs. The 23-year-old right-hander will take a 2.36 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 112/29 K/BB ratio across 91 2/3 innings into a start against the Brewers in Milwaukee on Thursday.