Bailey Ober logs quality start in no-decision

Ober was able to generate nine whiffs on 28 swings against his non-fastballs and hold the Royals to six hard-hit balls. The bad news is that one of those hard-hit balls, from Jac Caglianone, still hasn’t landed yet. This is about the best you could have hoped for from Ober, who lines up for a rematch against the Royals next Wednesday assuming nothing that happens at the trade deadline scuttles that.

By the end of the second inning, Ober had already faced 12 batters, thrown 53 pitches and allowed three runs. He let up one more in the fourth to close out this ineffective start. For a pitcher who doesn’t have much velocity to begin with, it was down even further in this one. His fastball averaged 87 mph – yes, averaged – and he didn’t crack 89 mph one time. It’s practically impossible to be effective in this day and age with that low of velocity and Ober showed why here. He left this start with an ugly 4.56 ERA, 60 strikeouts, and 22 walks through 80 innings on the season and is scheduled for a two-start week against the Royals and home and Mariners on the road next week.

Two walks allowed by Ober in the first inning proved costly after Michael Busch singled to drive home Pete Crow-Armstrong to put the Cubs up 1-0. Ober allowed a leadoff double to Seiya Suzuki in the sixth inning but would get Michael Busch to ground out before being pulled in favor of Tommy Nance. Nance would throw a wild pitch to allow Suzuki to score, with that run being credited to Ober. It was a solid night for Ober overall, who settled in nicely after allowing three baserunners to reach base in the first inning. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in back-to-back games and will take the mound next on Wednesday against the Guardians.

He’ll be followed by Taj Bradley on Saturday afternoon and Zebby Matthews on Sunday afternoon at Wrigley Field. The expectation is that Joe Ryan would then start on Monday against the Guardians in Cleveland. Ober is coming off of a decent first half where he registered a 4.40 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and a 51/19 K/BB ratio over 71 2/3 innings in his first 13 starts.

It was Ober’s first start since May 30th as he’s been on the IL with elbow inflammation. The 30-year-old struck out five and walked one on Thursday while throwing 65 percent of his pitches for strikes. His four-seam velocity was 88.2 mph, which is not great but actually not too far off from what we’ve seen from him this year. The calling card on Thursday was a sweeper that posted a 45 percent swinging strike rate. He struggled to miss bats with anything else, and his velocity still scares us, so we would not be adding him with the Cubs up next.

This had been reported earlier, and we thought that Mike Paredes would shift back into long relief, but now that Connor Preilipp (blister) is headed to the injured list, the Twins will have to keep a bullpen game going for a bit. Ober, who had been out since the end of May with a flexor strain, has a 4.59 ERA in 66 2/3 innings this season and should be avoided in fantasy leagues.

There are plenty of moving parts here. Simply put, Mike Paredes will shift to a long relief role in place of rookie Marco Raya, who is headed to the injured list with a shoulder impingement, with Ober returning to Minnesota’s rotation. The 30-year-old has been out with a mild flexor strain that put him on the shelf back in late May. His immediate fantasy appeal is limited to deeper mixed leagues as a matchup-dependent back-end rotation option.

Ober kicked off a rehab assignment by allowing three runs over 3 1/3 innings for High-A Cedar Rapids last Sunday. The 30-year-old starter is working his way back from a mild flexor strain that put him on the shelf back in late May. He figures to be ready to rejoin Minnesota’s pitching mix at some point in early-to-mid July. His fantasy appeal is limited to deeper mixed leagues as a matchup-dependent back-end rotation arm.

Ober will receive a second opinion to confirm that his UCL remains intact, but it’s an extremely encouraging initial diagnosis after hitting the injured list with elbow inflammation over the weekend. There should be a definitive return table once he’s cleared to resume throwing later this month.

Ober was pounded for eight runs (seven earned) over 4 2/3 innings in a loss to the Pirates on Sunday and it sounds like the elbow issue may have played a role in his struggles. No word from the team yet on how long they expect him to be sidelined for. Travis Adams was recalled from Triple-A St. Paul in a corresponding move on Sunday.