Mavericks outlast visiting Kings in comeback win
De’Aaron Fox went off with a career-high-tying 44 points in a tough loss at Dallas on Saturday, finishing 18-of-31 from the field, 3-of-4 from deep and 5-of-6 from the line. The stellar stats disguise Fox’s struggles in the final moments of the game, including a bad pass for a turnover, a missed floater with under a minute left, and a miss at the line with 12.0 seconds left in a one-point game. The Kings’ defense couldn’t hold up down the stretch, and their offense got progressively worse: they scored 36 points in the first quarter, then 29, 27 and 21.
After blowing their 19-point lead, Sacramento fell 4.5 games out of the play-in, trailing the Spurs, Blazers and the No. 10 seed Pelicans. The window to make the play-in may be closing with only 16 games left on their schedule, but as long as it’s even slightly open, we shouldn’t have to worry about veterans like Fox, Domantas Sabonis or Harrison Barnes being shut down. Sacramento is now 3-6 with Sabonis in the lineup, though, so they’ll need to find some answers quickly to remain in the hunt.
Coming off the bench behind Sabonis, Richaun Holmes was back in action with six points and six boards in 16 minutes. It was a welcome sight after a frustrating stretch during which he missed four straight games despite being listed as ‘questionable’ or ‘expected to play’. Holmes looked fine physically on Saturday, but his minutes were once again throttled in a strict backup-center gig. His role been predictably decimated by the arrival of Sabonis in early February:
Before Sabonis: 11.0 points on 66.7% shooting, 7.4 boards, 1.0 blocks, 0.4 steals in 24.7 minutes
After Sabonis: 3.6 points on 43.5% shooting, 2.8 boards, 0.4 blocks, 0.2 steals in 15.5 minutes
It’s only been a five-game sample-size with Sabonis, but those numbers still paint a grim picture. How is it that Holmes still has a roster rate north of 60% in both Yahoo and ESPN leagues? He shouldn’t be rostered in re-draft settings, excluding deep leagues where he’s a safety net for Sabonis in deep leagues.
Looking ahead, can Holmes’ fantasy value recover next year? He came into this season with a lofty Average Draft Position of 42.4 (Yahoo), just below Christian Wood and ahead of Clint Capela. I expect he’ll be over-drafted again next year, though nowhere near as drastically. His fantasy value is negligible if he stays in Sacramento as Sabonis’ backup, but could improve with a change of scenery. He’s been a staple of trade rumors and has a relatively reasonable $36.1 million owed to him over the next three seasons. But the fact that he’s still in Sacramento suggests there’s a soft market for his services, as if teams aren’t clamoring to spend $36 million for a best-suited-as-backup center with no 3-point range. Conveniently, Holmes addressed his 3-point shooting after the game:
Holmes also said that if he wants to play with Sabonis on the court at the same time, he needs to hit the 3-ball.
— James Ham (@James_HamNBA) March 6, 2022
Luka Doncic (sprained left toe) was initially questionable for Saturday’s game, but wound up sitting for the first time since Jan. 7. The result was a monster game from Spencer Dinwiddie, who scored 36 points to help Dallas climb out of a double-digit hole to pull out the one-point win. His layup put the Mavs up with 9:50 left in the fourth quarter, and he was in his element as the focal point of the offense without Doncic -- no small thing, considering Luka leads the NBA with sky-high 38.3% usage. It’s similar to Dinwiddie’s drastic swings in production with and without Bradley Beal in D.C. this season, where he was a poor fantasy option with Beal but excellent without him. Expect more of the same if Luka can’t play vs. Utah on Monday.
Maxi Kleber was also out with right ankle soreness, which left an extra 20+ minutes available in the frontcourt. Davis Bertans was solid in 15 minutes off the bench, posting seven points with three boards, two assists and one block. The real change was Dallas going smaller with Josh Green earning a season-high 29 minutes, during which he had 12 points, a career-high 12 rebounds (six offensive), one dime and one steal. Kleber is day-to-day and Green is typically a low-usage guy, so I’d caution against chasing this fluky performance. He was really quite good tonight, though.
Dorian Finney-Smith typically shines brightest on defense, but he was the offensive hero for Dallas during Saturday’s comeback. He drained multiple clutch 3-pointers down the stretch, including the go-ahead bucket from deep for a 114-111 lead with 3.3 seconds left. It was a designed play that used Dinwiddie as a decoy and got Finney-Smith a wide-open look in the corner, which he splashed -- he’s earned coach Jason Kidd‘s trust with 23-of-42 shooting (54.7%) from deep in the past seven games. His steals had dried up with just four total in that seven-game span, so it was nice to see him swipe a pair tonight. Deploy him while he’s on a tear, by all means, but note that he got more shots tonight without Luka in the lineup. He’s just a steady option for across-the-board 9-cat value, and an affordable play in, yes, DFS cash games (reliable but low-ceiling).
Dwight Powell fouled out with six points on 3-of-5 shooting, seven boards and two assists in 28 minutes, not far off his typical production. Over the past month, Powell has averaged 10.3 points on 72.1% shooting from the field. He’s also grabbing 5.8 boards per game, with 0.9 turnovers, but that’s the extent of the good news. Without additional defensive stats (0.5 steals, 0.5 blocks) he’s a net-negative in six fantasy categories. There’s situational appeal in deeper leagues, potentially for the FG% boost alone, but I’m only inclined to roll with Powell if Kleber’s ankle soreness costs him more games.
Reggie Bullock didn’t do much statistically with 11 points, one rebound and one assist, but he did register some encouraging numbers for fantasy purposes -- 41 minutes played, six 3-pointers attempted, two steals collected, and one turnover committed. His role has grown since Kristaps Porzingis’ injury/departure, at least enough to give him top-80 value in the past few weeks. He’s available in 70% of Yahoo leagues and the Mavs play four times next week.
Sterling Brown (illness) played nine minutes off the bench, and Trey Burke (left shoulder sprain) also played four minutes despite initially being questionable. Boban Marjanovic made his second appearance in the past 30 games, checking in as a rebounder on a late free throw. Technically, zero time elapsed while he was on the court. It’s still nice to see him out there, and as expected he got some cheers from the home crowd.
Keldon Johnson scores career-high 33 points in loss at Charlotte
Keldon Johnson went wild vs. the Hornets in the first half on Saturday, hitting his first 10 shots en route to a career-high 33 points in a 123-117 road loss at Charlotte. The Hornets’ defense deserves some credit for holding him scoreless in the fourth quarter (five points in third quarter). Johnson’s previous career high was 32 points, which he set last week, so needless to say his fantasy appeal is ticking up. Unlike many other players mentioned throughout this column, however, Johnson isn’t widely available -- he’s already rostered in 85% of Yahoo leagues.
Dejounte Murray hit a sequence of nice layups to keep it close down the stretch, but finished the loss with 25 points, 10 assists, nine boards and three steals. That’s enough to satisfy any fantasy manager. What’s less satisfying is the fact that he’s now missed 10 triple-doubles this season by two or fewer combined rebounds and assists. I suspect he could have completed most of those, only where other teams might leave him in to grab a final board or dish a final assist, the Spurs aren’t playing him more minutes than necessary to win a game. Excluding the small percentage of fantasy leagues that include triple-doubles as a category (shoutout to all you gaudy-stat-chasing GMs), I’d say that’s a net positive if it keeps him even slightly fresher and healthier in the long run. In any case, his ADP will be (and should be) in the single digits next year.
Devin Vassell had some left adductor tightness but he played through it to the tune of 14 points, four boards, two triples and two blocks in 29 minutes. Lonnie Walker IV (lower back tightness) also played through injury but the result wasn’t nearly as satisfying. He logged only 18 minutes to finish with five points on 2-of-8 shooting, one steal and zero rebounds, assists or blocks. Walker’s dud likely hurt many streaming/DFS managers since he came in with 17+ points in seven consecutive games, including a 30-point, 5-triple eruption vs. the Kings on Thursday.
His efficiency from the field had been unsustainably great, with combined 53.0% shooting despite high-volume 3-pointers. The problem is that he’s offered almost nothing else. In that same seven-game span, he was a combined 12-of-21 (57.1%) from the line, while averaging 3.0 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.3 steals and 0.1 blocks. Even in DFS/points leagues, where scoring the ball has outsized impact, Walker’s seven-game heater was only returning 28.0 fantasy points per game (92nd in the league in that span). Chase the points if you need them, but a simple cold stretch will send his fantasy appeal plummeting.
A footnote: Joshua Primo (10 points, six boards in 25 minutes) was on the court down the stretch tonight, replacing starter Doug McDermott in a late lineup with Murray, Vassell, Johnson and Jakob Poeltl.
Charlotte (31-33) pulled to within two games of .500 behind another rousing game from Terry Rozier, who led the way with 31 points, six dimes and five boards. He snatched a one-handed rebound away from Poeltl late in the game, and that typifies the energy and athleticism he brought all night. Scary Terry is simply on fire right now, and is carrying plenty of fantasy squads with elite value (especially in 9-cat) for the past month. P.J. Washington shot 6-of-13 from the field and 3-of-9 from deep for 15 points, five boards, three 3-pointers, two steals, two blocks and one assist. He played 38 minutes and continues to start without Gordon Hayward (sprained ligaments; left ankle), who remains without a timetable. PJ’s roster rate had been confusingly low, but it’s crept up to 72% (and should be higher) despite modest numbers that rarely ‘pop’ off the boxscore. Miles Bridges had two points and one rebound at halftime, so in context his final 10/5/6 line doesn’t look quite as bad. LaMelo Ball did his thing with 24-8-7 and four 3-pointers, getting the better of Dejounte Murray in a fantastic matchup between two young All-Star guards. The league’s next crop of superstars is already among us.
Heat defeat Harden-less Sixers, 99-82
In a marquee matchup between the Eastern Conference’s No. 2 seed (Philly) vs. the No. 1 seed (Miami), new Sixers’ superstar James Harden...was not active. Alas, the bearded one was out in the second half of this back-to-back set due to left hamstring ‘injury maintenance’. It’s tempting to roll your eyes at such DNPs, but in this case it’s understandable. Harden has played four games in the past month, none of which included a back-to-back, and he was coming off a 36-minute effort on Friday. A hamstring injury cost him the postseason last year, so caution is the rule for Philly. Fantasy managers will live with the occasional DNPs if he continues producing at the level he has with the Sixers, averaging 26.8 points on 59% shooting, 12.0 assists and 7.5 rebounds.
Harden will be ready to roll vs. the visiting Bulls on Monday, but whether he’ll play in all three of Philly’s games next week remains to be seen. They have four more back-to-back sets remaining this season, and the next one looms on Mar. 13-14. The game on Sunday, Mar. 13 is a one-game trip to Orlando. That’s followed by a home game vs. the Nuggets, so (assuming he does sit out a game) my educated guess is that it’ll be on Sunday.
Furkan Korkmaz slid into the starting lineup to replace Harden, but had only two points and four boards in 22 minutes. It’s notable that even without Harden, Shake Milton (four points in 23 minutes) and Danny Green (20 minutes) were both very quiet in reserve roles. Matisse Thybulle played 22 scoreless minutes, though he did his thing defensively with two blocks and one steal. He’s been better offensively with Harden on the court, but obviously that’s not saying much. Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris both had unremarkable games, while Joel Embiid sank 14-of-14 free throws but just 4-of-15 field goals for his 22 points. The MVP frontrunner also had 15 rebounds, two assists and two steals in his 36 minutes tonight.
For Miami, Kyle Lowry missed his fourth straight game due to personal reasons. He was ruled out a day in advance, but with a personal absence that doesn’t really tell us much. Whatever the cause, fantasy managers are left to stream Gabe Vincent until we hear a return date for Lowry. A perpetual opportunist this season, Vincent has started 23 games in which he’s averaged 13.1 points, 2.7 triples, 4.6 dimes, 2.6 rebounds and 1.3 steals. The percentages and turnovers often sting in 8-cat/9cat, but we can’t be too choosy with high-assist waiver-wire pickups.
Jimmy Butler (left big toe irritation) tied Tyler Herro for the team high in scoring with 21 points, adding five assists, four rebounds, two steals and a block. He was one of four players to battle through minor ailments, joining Caleb Martin (sore left Achilles), Max Strus (right shoulder sprain), and P.J. Tucker (left knee pain). It’s not worth recounting what any of those guys did on Saturday, but at least they’re healthy.
Victor Oladipo is on the verge of returning from right quad/knee surgery, having circled Monday’s game vs. Houston for his season debut. VO has absconded from the waiver wire in 33% of Yahoo leagues, including 10% on Friday alone, and I get the appeal. With three different teams during the 2020-21 season, the former All-Star averaged 19.8 points, 4.8 boards, 4.6 dimes, 1.4 steals and 2.4 triples. He also shot 40% from the field on high-volume attempts, turned the ball over consistently, and was earning minutes in the 30s while teams tried to showcase him for trades. Is there a path to value for Oladipo? In some idealized scenario, sure. He returns without any setbacks, shows flashes of his old athleticism, sheds minute limitations in the near future, and maybe even plays in a few of Miami’s three remaining back-to-back sets. OK, that last part isn’t happening. But even if he looks great and doesn’t have very strict minute limits, he’s still fighting for minutes in a rotation that includes Butler, Lowry, Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro, Vincent, Martin and Strus.
Grizzlies dismiss visiting Magic, 124-96
Memphis blew out the Magic on Saturday and there was a lot of garbage time, with none of the Grizzlies’ starters playing more than Ja Morant‘s 28 minutes. He led the team in scoring yet again, with 25 points on 9-of-17 shooting, three triples, seven dimes, four boards and a steal. It was business as usual for players up and down the Memphis roster, but here are some tidbits worth pointing out.
The Grizzlies are the only team in the league to play both Saturday and Sunday this week.
Kyle Anderson (left foot soreness) played through his ailment to finish with nine points, six rebounds, one assist, one steal and one 3-pointer in 18 minutes.
De’Anthony Melton provided his usual per-minute goodness off the bench. In 24 minutes of action, he chipped in nine points, four boards, four assists, three steals, one block, one 3-pointer and zero turnovers.
Desmond Bane has been in a rough shooting slump, including 34.3% shooting in the month of February. He got hot late vs. Boston on Thursday, and carried over that momentum tonight with 10-of-15 shooting overall, including 3-of-6 from deep.
John Konchar had two points, three assists and 11 rebounds in 22 minutes. He’s already had games this season with 17 rebounds and 14 rebounds, so his work on the glass isn’t as random as it might seem -- he’s forever hustling for those boards.
For the Magic, Wendell Carter Jr. was out again due to illness and it was Chuma Okeke starting in the frontcourt alongside Mo Bamba. Okeke was typically quiet on offense with four points on 2-of-10 shooting, and he missed all seven of his shots from downtown. He did collect seven rebounds, five assists and four steals in 34 minutes, and the steals alone ensure he’ll hold value. The news wasn’t as good for Bamba, who lasted only 21 minutes and was outplayed by reserve big man Moritz Wagner (first double-double of the season with 17 points, 11 rebounds, three assists, one steal). Bamba had 10 points, four boards, one steal and one block, his sixth straight game with at least one swat. The downside is that he hasn’t blocked more than one shot in a game in over three weeks. His minutes are wobbly and he’s frustrating to roster night-to-night, so if you need to cut him in a shallower league, I get it.
Jalen Suggs (right ankle sprain) was ruled out 90 minutes before tip-off and R.J. Hampton (four points on 1-of-7 FGs, four boards, two assists, one steal, one block) replaced him in the starting lineup. All signs point to Suggs being day-to-day and returning as soon as Tuesday vs. the visiting Suns, limiting Hampton’s pickup appeal. I’ve had him on my ‘watch list’ all season long already, given his strong finish to last year and Orlando’s ‘why not?’ situation when it comes to giving young guys minutes. It’s taken longer than I’d hoped, with Gary Harris (DNP-CD) and Terrence Ross (five points in 19 minutes) clinging tenaciously to their roles, but Hampton as a fill-in starter is a good indication that the tide is turning in Orlando. Just beware Hampton’s dicey percentages.
Suggs’ available minutes don’t mean much for Markelle Fultz right now, since the Magic medical staff has him on strict limits. He returned from a precautionary DNP to finish Saturday’s loss with six points on 2-of-8 shooting, three assists and two rebounds in 19 minutes off the bench.
Wolves win behind Towns’ 36 points - Blazers’ Simons scores 38
The Blazers had eight players in uniform for Saturday’s road game, and even Anfernee Simons’ electric 38-point performance wasn’t enough to make that stand up vs. the Wolves. Simons was 11-of-25 from the field overall, but he tied his career high with nine 3-pointers, hit 7-of-7 freebies, and had three rebounds and three assists. He’s going to get paid really, really well in restricted free agency this offseason. Greg Brown III (illness) was ruled out for Portland tonight, as was Elijah Hughes (left thumb sprain). That typically wouldn’t have mattered, except that they were also without Josh Hart (rest), Justise Winslow (right Achilles soreness) and the usual litany of long-term ailing Blazers.
Hart’s DNP is a curious one. Portland’s official injury report labeled him out due to ‘Rest’, without any allusion to injury at all. The sketchy part is that the Blazers hadn’t played since Wednesday, they don’t play again until Monday, and Hart only played 23 minutes in his last appearance. Don’t hit the panic button yet, but it looks like the 26-year-old may be frustrating to roster if the Blazers opt to fully tank. They’re only 2.0 games out of the No. 10 seed, but based on Saturday’s roster the decision has already been made.
This was also Keljin Blevins’ first NBA start, and he didn’t score but did hand out five assists in his 24 minutes. Rookie guard Brandon Williams also had a career night with 21 points off the bench, connecting on 9-of-14 shots with two 3-pointers. Portland has every reason to give him minutes and he’s now scored 12+ points in four straight games, so he’s a guy to watch. This is a proceed-with-caution situation, though, since Williams has recorded only nine rebounds, 11 assists, one steal and zero blocks in 97 minutes played this season.
Karl-Anthony Towns tweaked his left ankle during Saturday’s game, but it proved to be nothing as he dropped 36 points on 13-of-17 FGs and 10-of-11 FTs, 15 boards, five dimes and three blocks. Those big numbers aren’t unusual for KAT, who has 23 games this season with 20+ points and 10+ rebounds. He did his damage without any turnovers in 34 minutes, too.
Many of KAT’s buckets came courtesy of D’Angelo Russell, who set a new career high with 15 assists to go along with 14 points, three rebounds and a pair of triples. D’Lo’s fantasy managers won’t mind if Patrick Beverley, who was out tonight, takes a few more days to rest his sore right ankle.
Malik Beasley headbutted Drew Eubanks and was ejected in the midst of a productive game, scoring 16 points on 5-of-10 shooting with four 3-pointers, one dime and a rare block (his 10th of the season). Beasley also passed Kevin Love for the Wolves’ single-season record in made 3-pointers (191 and counting). There’s a chance that a suspension is coming for the headbutt, so it’s not certain that he’ll get to pad his lead in a rematch vs. the Blazers on Monday. If he’s out, give Jaylen Nowell a look for streaming value. He helpfully demonstrated his scoring upside on Saturday with 22 points (8-of-13 shooting, 4-of-7 from deep) and a pair of dimes in 24 minutes.
In bad news for a handful of managers who streamed him, Taurean Prince (nine points, three dimes, two boards in 13 minutes) exited this game with back spasms.
LeBron scores 56 points in 124-116 win vs. Warriors
“Desperation.” That’s the word LeBron James used, twice, when asked what it took for the Lakers to snap a four-game skid and beat the Warriors on Saturday. It also took a 56-point game from LeBron, which is the most points he’s ever scored in a Lakers jersey and the fifth-most in his 19-year career. He also tied Trae Young for the points in an NBA game this season, and at one point he turned to Matthew Stafford, who was sitting courtside, and said, “I can’t have you in the building and not put on a show!”
The Lakers’ win was entertaining, to be sure, but despite the good vibes in Crypto.com arena, they had to survive a barrage of unforced turnovers late in this game to pull it out. One win won’t cure what ails them, and Anthony Davis (right mid-foot sprain) isn’t due for a re-evaluation until Mar. 17, so despite tonight’s win the losses may continue to pile up. Jeff Van Gundy certainly thinks so:
Malik Monk and Carmelo Anthony made some timely buckets, and Austin Reaves stepped up with 10/5/2/3/2, but this was thoroughly the LeBron show. He played 39 minutes and in the process he passed Karl Malone to take second place all time in minutes played. That leaves him 3,513 minutes behind Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the most in NBA history. He’s also 1,667 points away from being No. 1 all-time in scoring (currently third behind Kareem and Malone). Of course, right now he’s just concerned with dragging his team into the playoffs.
Otto Porter Jr. got a bare-bones double-double as a starter in place of Gary Payton II, who is day-to-day after getting hit in the knee. An MRI was clean, so presumably he could return as soon as Monday’s road game in Denver. Jordan Poole lit up for 23 points on 9-of-15 shooting, four triples, five assists and one steal in 32 minutes off the bench. He propelled Golden State’s bench to a total of 36 points in the first half alone, which is a season-high for any bench unit in the league this season.
If you’re purely focused on streaming well to begin next week (Week 20 in fantasy leagues), the Warriors are the only team to play both Monday and Tuesday. Jonathan Kuminga was excellent vs. the Lakers with 18 points on 7-of-10 FGs, five boards, three triples and two steals in 29 minutes, and is a great streaming option if available. Kevon Looney was limited on Saturday due to small-ball lineups (the Lakers didn’t have a true center), but he’s a decent streamer. I’d shy away from Porter Jr. since he’s likely to sit one of those games anyway, and keep an eye on Moses Moody, who had nine points on 4-of-4 shooting but nothing else in 21 minutes on Saturday. Steve Kerr said recently that the rookie is “ready” for more minutes, and he’s likely to get them whenever Otto and/or Klay are rested.
My final note is that if you’re looking for streaming value to close this week and start next week strong, there are four teams with back-to-back sets on Sunday-Monday: Denver, Houston, New York and Utah. Good luck next week!
