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Bruski 150: Final Update

So here we are again with just days (or hours) to go before the season starts. As usual, we’re publishing as late as possible so as to let the market solidify before we release these picks – many of which will go against the grain.

This is the same exact list that I have used in one big money league and I’m about to head into the National Fantasy Basketball Championship with it on Monday. Last year it was good enough to bring home the gold in 1-of-2 NFBKC leagues. The prior year it won the championship in the league that replaced the NFBKC due to the NBA lockout.

Longtime readers will know that I don’t play it safe here. I’m not worried about standing out from other sites’ rankings or even our own. This is about throwing my best punch and not being concerned about looking crazy when I do it. As a result, I’ve had some high profile wins on player projections and a few high profile losses, too. I haven’t seen any fantasy expert rankings in a while but when I have seen them they’ve put me at or near the top. Hopefully for all of us that trend will continue. Lastly, be sure to read the ground rules – they are key to using this list correctly.

For NBA news and fantasy updates, you can click here to follow me on Twitter.

For numerous articles, rankings, projections and the like, you can click here to buy our draft guide.

Here is a look back at last year’s B150 from this summer.

B150 RANKS UPDATED UP TO: OCTOBER 26, 3:26 P.M. ET

Click here for the most recent updates on our player news page.

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The ground rules….

  • This is a Roto list. It’s not a head-to-head list or a points league list. It’s not a list to account for playoff formats. Frankly I’d prefer it to not even include 9-cat rankings because it’s terrible to penalize better players for handling the ball a lot. But because we all play 9-cat I include my ranks for 9-cat and the associated Average Draft Positions (ADP), as well. While I’m banging on 9-cat leagues I’ll bang on playoff leagues, too. Why go through the nightly grind of the NBA season to have the ever-growing problem of reality playoff shutdowns determine your league.

  • If you don’t know that LaMarcus Aldridge finished No. 30 in the 8-cat rankings last season I cannot help you. There are frankly way too many people that don’t understand this and then get freaked out when I rank him No. 36 this season. Great player, but fantasy metrics march to the beat of a rigid mathematical drum. If you drafted him at his ADP of 15 last season, you returned about half of the value that you should have gotten at that slot in an 8-cat league. I highly recommend you guys check out Basketball Monster or look into the math that goes into this.

  • Each player in the top 300 or so has been hand-projected for each category. Those projections have been scrutinized in every context that might affect the final outcome. A proprietary blend of methodologies – both quantitative and qualitative – is used to weave the resulting numbers into these rankings.

  • This is a year-long list. By ranking a player (for example) No. 33, I am predicting they will finish as the 33rd ranked player at the end of the year, cumulatively. So games played predictions are necessarily a factor in these rankings. In that respect, it is vital owners know that I am not intending for them to draft players in this order.

  • Again, owners need to consider their specific marketplace and determine where they would like to draft players based on ADP, strength of their league and the like. Just because I rank a guy way ahead of his ADP, or if the ADP doesn’t exist because the guy isn’t getting drafted enough – it doesn’t mean you grab him where I rank him.

  • ADPs are pulled from ESPN for 8-cat and Yahoo for 9-cat.

  • These are pure values that don’t account for any punting or specialized team builds you might want to look at. If you want to adjust for punting or a specific type of team build you’ll need to do that on your own. For what it’s worth I seek balance when building a team whether it’s Roto or H2H.

  • As you move down in the rankings, the players’ values get increasingly bunched up. Hence, it’s possible for guys to rise or slide quickly in terms of numeric rank, when in reality their values are much closer than it may seem.

So without further ado, I give you the Bruski 150:

8-CATADPNAMETEAMPOSNOTES9-CATADP
13Stephen CurryGSWGDown with the King! Curry beat him last year and he’ll squeak by him again.34
21LeBron JamesCLEFTempting to take AD, but in 8-cat LeBron still holds a notable edge.22
36Russell WestbrookOKCGBeware Godzilla. Fire, brimstone, it’s the end of the world as we know it (and I feel fine).98
43Anthony DavisNORF/CWe don’t know what his ceiling is. If he takes a semi-normal step forward, he lands here.13
56James HardenHOUG/FCurry+James are Tier 1, Westy+AD are Tier 2, Harden and Paul are Tier 3.86
65Chris PaulLACGPaul may always own Griffin in fantasy, but in reality ball this is Blake’s season.46
716Kevin DurantOKCFWondering where to take KD? By my numbers and a guess of 25 missed games on the year, it’s here.76
89John WallWASGWall, Leonard + Cousins are very tight. Wall gets the nod for safety, Boogie down for fun.1412
918Kawhi LeonardSASG/FThe projection isn’t even that aggressive numbers-wise. Pop just has to hold his hand through the door.520
1010DeMarcus CousinsSACF/CBuckle up for a monster season. Efficiency is his only vice, 26 & 10 is on the way.1611
1113Serge IbakaOKCF/CHe was poised for a big year before KD went down. Now Brooks *has* to recognize him.614
1216Damian LillardPORGOne of the safer plays at this stage of the draft.1316
1311Kevin LoveCLEF/CSome risk of injury or a down year, but the situation in CLE could end up being insanely dynamic.108
147Carmelo AnthonyNYKFShoot less in the triangle? I assumed a slight reduction, but I need to hear more to drop him more.128
1527Nicolas BatumPORG/FLike with his point guard teammate, a Batum selection comes with extra peace of mind.1526
1636Mike ConleyMEMGSee that ADP? Happens every year and Conley usually comes out on the right side of that fight.1732
1719Kyrie IrvingCLEGThis is what happens when LeBron James storms the castle.1816
1812Blake GriffinLACF/CGone are the days of being a Roto bummer. Hopefully his new range isn’t a sap to his value.2916
1926Dirk NowitzkiDALF/CIf anybody catches up with his one-legged fallaway he’ll come up with something else.1120
2028Kyle LowryTORGIn competitive leagues he’s not falling to this No. 24 ADP. TOR guard depth will be a nuisance.2221
2133Paul MillsapATLF/CPerennially underrated, Millsap is in a contract year and has nothing between he and this ranking.2128
2233Klay ThompsonGSWG/F3.0 treys, 20 points, 45% field goal shooting and 81 percent from the line. Book it.2035
2350Gordon HaywardUTAG/FLike with Kenneth Faried, the residual effects of Team USA will become immediately apparent.4455
2450Kenneth FariedDENFFaried is no longer a dirty work guy on offense. In fact, he’s becoming the go-to guy for the Nuggets.2459
2557Ricky RubioMINGReality basketball issues are tarnishing the value of last year’s No. 22 finisher.5150
2637Al HorfordATLF/CI think he’s going to be fine but expecting him to come out firing on all cylinders is a bit optimistic.2327
2743DeMar DeRozanTORG/FDeRozan improves every summer. This year it’s his handles. He and Lowry are a handful.3648
2819Chris BoshMIAF/CBosh is gonna go for 19 & 8 and hit his throws. But he can’t climb this list with issues elsewhere.3223
2948Chandler ParsonsDALFParsons won’t get a huge boost in the move to DAL, but there are a few more touches to go around.2745
3053Thaddeus YoungMINFBecause he’s so underrated, I’m a big stockholder. I do worry, though, about Minny going young in MAR.1946
3130Marc GasolMEMCLoss of explosion was an issue before his injury last year. To his credit, he looks spry to start the year.3038
3226Goran DragicPHOGThe only way Dragic can keep pace with last year is if the Suns run Nellie style. They’re not quite there.4328
3345Nikola VucevicORLF/CVooch needs to take one more category to the next level to compete with the big boys.3541
3445Jeff TeagueATLGAnother guy whose durability covered up lower returns. Teague was the #37 play and can only go up.4559
3544Kemba WalkerCHAGPreseason injuries have caused a bit of a slide. Still hard to know if that means value or lost profits.3453
3614LaMarcus AldridgePORF/CLMA finished No. 30 last year, ADP at #15. Look for a similar phenomena to stump America once again.2611
3718Al JeffersonCHAF/C#26 last year, like LMA his ADP was a pricy #17. Look for cracks in the armor, Lance to steal his boards2516
3854Deron WilliamsBKNGI’m less bearish on Deron than most. Ankle surgery seems to have really helped. We’ll see.4134
3942Victor OladipoORLGBetween the knee and his face his ADP continues to sink, which means value since his injuries should heal up well.7860
4055Jrue HolidayNORGHoliday probably won’t start the year in tip-top shape, but a solid fantasy game will help float his value.6853
4142Eric BledsoePHOGLike with Goran Dragic, the arrival of the Pizza Guy and the other PHO depth is going to ding him.5840
4233Monta EllisDALGAs consistent and durable as they come at the tail end of the early rounds.8247
4361Wesley MatthewsPORG/FAnother underrated selection year after year, Matthews has a defined role and very little risk.2856
4422Derrick RoseCHIGRose still has issues with defensive stats and teammates that can help with the load, but the explosion is back.8628
4591Jeremy LinLALGYou’re reading this correctly. The Lakers need his offense badly.63107
4652Rajon RondoBOSGThere’s risk but in an 8-cat league Rondo simply needs to not fall off the cliff to achieve this rank.6142
4728Joakim NoahCHIF/CThe days of point-Noah are mostly done and a crowded frontcourt pushed him down the list.3925
4879Markieff MorrisPHOF/CMorris is a hot name this year and yet his ADP hasn’t caught up with the hype. Consider him in Round 6.56107
4993Reggie JacksonOKCGPushed up the board by KD’s injury, Jackson’s FT shooting and rebounding are sneaky assets.65110
5050Derrick FavorsUTAF/CFavors’ FT% is a high-volume drag and he relies on others to get him the ball. I’m not on the RW wagon.4761

Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $200,000 Fantasy Basketball league for October 29th’s games. It’s $25 to join and first prize is $20,000. Starts at 7pm ET on October 29th. Here’s the FanDuel link.

8-CATADPNAMETEAMPOS 9-CATADP
5136Rudy GaySACFThe best part about IT for Rudy was that he kept Rudy from initiating too much. Beware the FG%.9437
5258Brandon JenningsDETGIn an 8-cat league he just needs to keep SVG in his corner. If he can stay in his lane, there’s solid upside.6685
5337DeAndre JordanLACCNo step forward on FTs this year, Jordan is going to lose a few minutes with Hawes around.3336
5424Andre DrummondDETF/CObviously the FT shooting pushes him way down the list. I don’t punt, but if you pick AD you will need to.4030
5526Kobe BryantLALGKobe’s legs may or may not show up. His old man game is going to be inefficient and disappointing if they don’t.9329
5647Dwyane WadeMIAGSure, somebody may hit the lottery and get a healthy Wade. They may also burn a fiery fantasy death.9836
5765Marcin GortatWASCGortat a poor man’s Vucevic, needing to shore up deficiencies to go ‘next level.’ Big year ahead though.4965
58101Tobias HarrisORLFHarris’ lost season was a bummer b/c nobody in ORL reported the extent of his injury. He’s healthy now.3797
5960Michael Carter-WilliamsPHIGMCW sits atop the food chain in a stat-friendly, garbage time environment. 9-cat owners beware.11870
6085Terrence JonesHOUFTJ has been up and down in preseason action. Motie not a real threat, so TJ’s fantasy game is ‘on.’31113
6187George HillINDGHill’s lack of defensive stats keep him from truly excelling, but he’s been active in the box score.5980
6225Ty LawsonDENGThe injury red flags continue to pile up and the depth in DEN’s backcourt will necessarily cut into his minutes.7934
6372Trevor ArizaHOUG/FAriza isn’t as versatile or efficient as Parsons, and it’s hard work not getting swallowed by Harden+D12.4866
6459Pau GasolCHIF/CI get the Pau love (he looks great). I boosted his numbers with my own blend of HGH. They land here.7160
6526Dwight HowardHOUF/CAgain, this is his pure value. Owners that punt are competing with each other to define his value.14132
6672Nerlens NoelPHIF/CThe garbage time could lead to insane DEF numbers. He’ll be a top (bad) offensive option for PHI, too.7555
67103Isaiah ThomasPHOGWrite his numbers in ink. He gets this high at 27.5 mpg, and he’ll be close w/out expected injury assistance.6769
6887Robin LopezPORCThe ‘other’ Lopez has quietly become one of the better centers in the league in both fantasy and reality.3876
6968Jimmy ButlerCHIG/FHe may end up higher on the Final B150. I try not get all hot+bothered b/c of preseason, but he deserves it.5568
7064Lance StephensonCHAG/FHe brings more to the table than blowing in someone’s ear. No really, look at his rank - he does!7669
71107Patrick BeverleyHOUGA lot worked against Beverley last year. Improved and hungry, no Parsons will help.4299
72119Gorgui DiengMINCHe snags this ranking in 27 mpg, and he’ll get most of the way there w/out brittle Pek getting hurt.50135
7380Jonas ValanciunasTORCThe only cool Jonas Brother would be higher if not for those meddling kids (Lowry, DeRozan, Ross)7386
7460Tim DuncanSASF/CGo ahead Tim, make us all look dumb for the 5th or 6th year in a row. Puts hair on our chest.6244
75113Mario ChalmersMIAGThis ranking assumes he doesn’t blow his cushy starting job. I don’t think he will.92109
76119Draymond GreenGSWFCan Kerr cut through the crap and get the right GSW guys on the floor? Cream will rise, regardless.57125
7781Larry SandersMILF/CMysterious surgeries, illnesses, and never a dull moment for The Show. A prove-it year, projection wise.6979
7890Jamal CrawfordLACGHe looks lethal after all these years. The Clips are weak on the wings and it’ll be business as usual.8396
79102Josh McRobertsMIAF/CHe has a long leash and a blank slate. Light rebounding Bosh his only competition for boards.64124
8082Greg MonroeDETF/CIf you want to bump him up in hopes of a trade, go for it. It may be more trouble than it’s worth.10488
8190Jared SullingerBOSF/COn the Mt. Rushmore of Large Humans That Shoot Threes already. Inefficiency kills his rankings, though.108118
8296Darren CollisonSACGIt’s concerning that all the success was a preseason mirage. But assuming no implosion in SAC, he’s here.10697
8386Roy HibbertINDCThose suckered into proclaiming Roy’s DPOY cred got playoff punishment. This year is the reckoning.11085
84 Kyle O’QuinnORLF/CO’Kyle how fore art they sleeping in fantasy land? I don’t know, thy merely make thee lists.46
85140Timofey MozgovDENCGet ready for Mozgov madness. Let’s be real, he has no competition for minutes and he’s pretty good.70134
8654David LeeGSWF/CKerr has already made overtures that he knows what we’ve known for years. Turn the page, Steve.10760
8760Josh SmithDETFOnly SAC would be…um…brazen enough to entertain his contract. You’re hoping for a Monroe trade.14076
8884Tyreke EvansNORG/FEvans is perennially hurt and ruined by years of mismanagement. Looks like Monty is ready to play the guy.15188
89140Mason PlumleeBKNF/CWith or without Lopez injury assistance, Plumdog is getting minutes. And they’ll generate this much value.52133
90140Rudy GobertUTACThe Stifle Tower is a physical specimen. Don’t expect him to be held down for long, if at all.54140
91112Danny GreenSASG/FGreen (#118 last year) was annoying but what happens (if you survive) is you become a Pop guy.53116
92140Henry SimsPHICSims’ mid-range game sort of works with Noel. He appears to be the last and possibly only center standing in PHI.81128
93106JJ RedickLACGRedick is no stranger to this section of the rankings. If he’s healthy, this is where he’ll go.6095
94112Paul PierceWASFYeah there’s risk and mileage, but he fits perfectly as the elder statesmen that knows how to get buckets.9791
95112Trey BurkeUTAGBurke is playing very well. Too bad his DEF stats hold him back. He’s ‘the man’ at PG all year and more.112117
9652Brook LopezBKNCHis recent absence has certainly pushed him way down the list. His fast start last year? Unsustainable.7733
9791Jose CalderonNYKGI’d rank Jose higher but it’s still a combustible mix in NY and nothing to play for late in the year.8077
98116Avery BradleyBOSGShoot them threes, Avery! But that’s pretty much all you’re getting with Bradley so pay accordingly.96140
9987Jeff GreenBOSG/FThis is where inefficient, high-volume players find themselves in the B150.99108
100114Gerald GreenPHOG/FEfficient with %s, he has made a case for 24-28 mpg this preseason and PHO is heading toward small ball.87100
10175David WestINDFRanked as if the ankle injury is of the less serious variety.11167
10291Brandon KnightMILGMilwaukee is trending toward Keith Smart/Larry Drew territory early, but Kidd has time to right the ship.143111
10381Ryan AndersonNORF/CFake trade idea - Move Anderson back home to SAC. Everybody wins. Things are tight in the Big Easy.7449
10476Luol DengMIAFInfamous scouting report unearthed what we knew - he’s been run down. Poor fantasy stat set.12181
10559Tony ParkerSASGQuiet dominance underscored by declining fantasy metrics and constant worry of being Popped.13861
106117DeMarre CarrollATLFConcerns about Horford are valid, but depth is still a problem for ATL and Carroll is still very underrated.84123
107121John HensonMILF/CThis assumes he plays 28 mpg and right now it’s anybody’s guess what’s happening in MIL.113143
108100Giannis AntetokounmpoMILG/FYou won’t find me reaching higher than this. I love his potential, but it’s not translating this year.153109
109119KJ McDanielsPHIFIt’s fun to think about somebody like KJ running around unbridled in PHI, but this is a more realistic finish.134146
110110Taj GibsonCHIF/CGibby is busting at the seams wanting to be the man. He’ll hover here w/out a major injury in CHI.120103
111140Otto Porter JrWASFPorter is getting a solid opportunity to impress early and so far he has taken advantage of it.114142
112120Alec BurksUTAGFantasy metrics hold him back, so no I’m not sipping the Kool Aid. Breakout yes, but not in fantasy.158139
11378Bradley BealWASGInefficient shooting, lacking DEF numbers and an injury will shuttle you to the bottom real quick.12568
11474Kyle KorverATLG/FHe did way better than this last year, saw time w/ Team USA. Real backups will allow ATL to ease his mpg10573
11548Jabari ParkerMILFReally hard to project in the mosh pit that is MIL. Silver lining - he’s the only bankable asset.21858
116140OJ MayoMILGFat O.J. Mayo has been exorcised and the new sleek, aerodynamic version has intriguing upside late in drafts.171133
117120Spencer HawesLACF/CIt would be funnier if Obama wiped his ass with some Spencer Hawes toilet paper.115101
118112Amir JohnsonTORF/CAssuming his ankles don’t snap in half (he’ll still try to play) - he’ll scoot into this value despite timeshare85116
119140CJ MilesINDG/FMiles is going to swing back and forth like a wrecking ball if you’re into that sort of thing.90144
120140Wes JohnsonLALG/FBad team + Wes Johnson = Surprising fantasy value at bottom barrel prices.89146
121115Terrence RossTORG/FRoss is improving on the whole and will be a streaky value guy buoyed by projected durability.100138
122107Tyson ChandlerDALCWouldn’t be surprising to see him outperform this ranking, but hard to trust him given age/injury risk.10398
123120Kelly OlynykBOSCShoots well enough from the field and line to make the threes worth the squeeze. Watch out for Zeller.88119
12462Andrew WigginsMINFThings I like: Insane potential. Things I don’t like: Crowded rotation, his tendency to be passive.21969
12571Zach RandolphMEMF/CAge/mileage concerns aside, this is an easy prediction but as you can see he’s way overrated.14273
126106Andre IguodalaGSWG/FThat contract looked terrible at the time and it’s about to look real bad next year.12296
127105Eric GordonNORGGordon’s fantasy game relies on serious volume and he simply won’t get that with Jrue+Reke around.157102
128115Andrew BogutGSWCHope if you draft Bogut is GSW commits to keeping his mpg down and he slithers through healthy year.102106
129 Brandan WrightDALF/CGot stuck in the 3-headed blender last year. Not happening this year and dude isn’t even getting drafted.72
130140Samuel DalembertNYKCPhil mentioned 26 mpg fairly specifically and that would be on the high end of Dalembert’s typical workload.116146
131102JR SmithNYKG/FThe Triangle and Smith are a match made in the satanic hell known as Customs line at Oak Int’l Airport.109113
132 PJ TuckerPHOG/FHornacek wants his defense on the floor. He’ll get three yards per carry and plod his way to this rank.101149
133 Courtney LeeMEMG/FAnother uninspiring bottom of the draft option best fit for deeper leagues.91
134 Patrick PattersonTORF/CMore of the same for Patterson this year. Improvements in his game will push him into late round value.95
135140Miles PlumleePHOF/CPlumlee looks like he’ll be backed up by Morris sliding into minutes at C, rather than set in big mpg role.126144
136118Omer AsikNORF/CIf you punt one of his many deficient areas then you’re probably doing it wrong.156118
13774Joe JohnsonBKNG/FIso Joe’s volume will continue to erode and his lack of defensive stats won’t support that.13086
138112Nick YoungLALG/FWhen the swag returns to L.A., it will be much needed, hilarious, and it will push him back into the B150135139
13987Kevin MartinMING/FWhether it’s crowding or injury risk he’s screwed. Owners can look elsewhere.11775
140140Jeremy LambOKCG/FRank assumes 26 mpg on the year. Unfortunately, OKC chose not to develop him in real games last year.128140
141112Carlos BoozerLALF/CEven with bumps up for expected production as the team’s unquestioned starting PF, he lands here.189115
142122Matt BarnesLACFBarnes will be a better asset in 9-cat leagues and is struggling with his shot right now.119128
143119Tony WrotenPHIGI want to rank him higher and I tried to, but his high-volume (bad) FT% makes him a punt guy only.254142
14497Elfrid PaytonORLGFantasy issues with shooting are omnipresent, but he runs what could be an exciting up-tempo team.279107
145118Marcus SmartBOSGFantasy metrics hurt him, but he’s going to be a beast on the defensive end for the Celtics.193134
146104Jordan HillLALF/CHe’s going to get hurt at some point and he can’t handle more than 27 mpg. Enjoy the ride while it lasts.139112
14794Nikola PekovicMINCInjury issues and a 27 mpg ceiling make this an easy rank for a guy with plenty of fantasy deficiencies.13776
148116Mirza TeletovicBKNFTeletovic is going to get his minutes one way or another. Problem is he’s terrible in a number of cats.132146
149112Anderson VarejaoCLEF/C 196117
150117Enes KanterUTAC 172124

Honorable Mention: Hollis Thompson, Steven Adams, Arron Afflalo, Khris Middleton, Vince Carter, Kyle Singler, James Johnson, Marco Belinelli, Manu Ginobili, Tiago Splitter, CJ Watson, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Ramon Sessions, Jameer Nelson, Iman Shumpert, Lou Williams, Channing Frye, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Dion Waiters, Norris Cole, Julius Randle, JaVale McGee, Nene, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Andrei Kirilenko, Amare Stoudemire, Boris Diaw, Marcus Thornton, Greivis Vasquez, Corey Brewer, Tony Allen, Jarrett Jack, Cody Zeller, Shawn Marion, Alan Anderson, Anthony Morrow, Randy Foye, Rodney Stuckey, D.J. Augustin, Tyler Zeller, Evan Fournier, Shaun Livingston, Gerald Henderson, Ersan Ilyasova, Rodney Hood, Tim Hardaway Jr., Doug McDermott, James Ennis, Jodie Meeks