Well, the Damian Lillard era in Portland has finally come to an end. After months of speculation, the star guard is headed to the Eastern Conference for the next stage of his career. But it won’t be Miami. In a shocking development, it was reported by ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski that Lillard was headed to Milwaukee as part of a three-team trade between the Trail Blazers, Bucks, and Suns. Let’s take a look at the deal and its potential fantasy impact.
Milwaukee receives:
Damian Lillard
Lillard was due to be a player capable of again providing first-round fantasy value, but that could have been in doubt if he wasn’t traded. His career timeline clearly doesn’t match that of his now-former employer, so there was a risk of some additional “rest days” if the Blazers found themselves well out of playoff contention come March. In Milwaukee, Lillard will be on what sets up to be the best roster of his career, with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Brook Lopez being the headliners.
Antetokounmpo finished last season ranked outside the top 100 in 9-cat, per-game value, due largely to a significant drop in his free throw percentage. While Lillard can’t directly impact the two-time MVP in that category, he can be of great assistance in the two-man game. Middleton and Lopez’s fantasy values should hold steady; the former missed a large chunk of last season due to injury, while the latter’s usage has surpassed 20% just once in his five years with the Bucks.
The departure of some of Milwaukee’s “supporting cast” stands to free up additional minutes, with Malik Beasley being an intriguing option for fantasy managers needing 3-point production. Pat Connaughton, MarJon Beauchamp, and even second-round pick Andre Jackson would be further down the line, while Bobby Portis’ value should hold steady since the Bucks didn’t part with a rotation big man in this deal.
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Portland receives:
Jrue Holiday
Deandre Ayton
Toumani Camara
2029 first-round pick from Milwaukee
2028, 2030 unprotected first-round pick swaps with Milwaukee
The Blazers are all-in on a rebuild, and the addition of Ayton will help immensely. Jusuf Nurkic’s production slipped last season, and he had not played at least 60 games in a season since suffering the horrific leg fracture late in the 2018-19 season. Ayton was due to be no higher than fourth in the Suns’ offensive pecking order in the aftermath of their acquisition of Bradley Beal, so the move to Portland gives his fantasy value a significant boost. A top 50 fantasy player in his first four seasons, Ayton slipped outside that threshold in 2022-23. With this trade, the top 50 feels like a minimum expectation for him.
Holiday’s fantasy value isn’t as straightforward. Similar to Lillard, his career timeline doesn’t mesh with that of Portland’s young backcourt. And the priority is clearly to get Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, and Anfernee Simons (who has also been in trade rumors this offseason) as much playing time as they can handle. Rebuilds require draft capital, so no one should be surprised if Portland looks to move Holiday to another team before the start of this season. Could Miami, which was Lillard’s preferred destination, be interested? Maybe Philadelphia, given that franchise’s issues with James Harden? Given the questions, it’s difficult to move Holiday’s fantasy value one way or the other.
Camara, a second-round pick out of Dayton, should have more opportunities to earn rotation minutes in Portland than he would have in Phoenix. That said, his status is unlikely to move the needle in drafts. But keep his name in mind for “silly season,” as we’ve seen some Blazers provide solid value during that portion of the schedule recently.
Phoenix receives:
Jusuf Nurkic
Grayson Allen
Nassir Little
Keon Johnson
Nurkic’s offensive production may have slipped, but he offers a bit more defensively than Ayton did. Even if the 2019-20 season is removed, as Nurkic played nine games in the bubble, he’s been a safe bet to approach two combined steals/blocks per game. Joining a lineup that includes Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and the aforementioned Beal, the defensive stats and rebounds are where Nurk is going to be of greatest value to fantasy managers. He’s also a solid facilitator, and Phoenix’s lack of a true point guard could result in Nurkic having opportunities to make some things happen for his new teammates. After failing to crack the top 100 in 9-cat per-game value each of the last three seasons, he’s in line to change that in 2023-24.
Of the three other players acquired by Phoenix in this deal, Allen is the one best positioned to provide value as a supplementary option. He started 70 of the 72 games he appeared in last season, ranking just inside the top 150 in 9-cat per-game value. Three-pointers, steals, and free-throw percentage are areas where Allen can be of use in deeper category leagues. Little and Johnson didn’t offer much during their time in Portland, and both are in positions where they’ll face a more difficult fight for rotation minutes in Phoenix. While using a late-round pick on Allen would be understandable, the same can’t be said for those two right now.