Every year, managers try to get every slight advantage that they can. Typically, everyone’s favorite buzzword is “sleeper”. Basically, they’re asking for a player nobody knows about that they can acquire for cheap that will win them their league. Full disclosure: finding a true sleeper is usually next to impossible.
However, many players often have the potential to be sleepers. Either a developmental leap or an increase in opportunity can allow players to see extra minutes and take advantage of the situation.
The 11 players listed below are either primed for a breakout season that will lead to long-term fantasy success or are talented players who will be hidden behind other veterans to start the year, which makes this a great time to buy low. The odds favor most of these not panning out immediately (if ever), so find the two or three that you feel best about and go for it.
SG/SF Keon Ellis (Sacramento)
If you were paying attention down the stretch last season, Ellis may not be a sleeper to you. However, I think he’s in for a massive season. He started the year in a minor reserve role and saw a few starts when De’Aaron Fox was injured. However, he took over as the starting shooting guard when Kevin Huerter went down late in the year and thrived. After that, he was a top-100 player with averages of 9.8 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.5 blocks and 2.2 triples in 27.0 minutes per game. There is a real chance that Ellis will be part of the team’s starting unit this year to provide them with more defense on the perimeter. If that happens, he should be in for a top-100 season.
SF Julian Strawther (Denver)
During media day, Mike Malone said that the starting shooting guard job would come down to Strawther and Christian Braun, depending on which one “complements” the starters best. He had a few solid games as a rookie where he poured in the 3-pointers and was dominant over the last two Summer Leagues. Even if Malone brings Strawther off the bench, he’ll still play a significant role. However, if he starts to provide some floor spacing, we could see him take a massive leap this season. Buy in now before it’s too late.
SF Leonard Miller (Minnesota)
Miller is coming off of an excellent performance during Summer League despite not seeing much of an opportunity as a rookie. However, he played well in the G-League after spending the previous season as part of G-League Ignite. In 12 appearances for the Iowa Wolves last year, he averaged 16.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.9 blocks and 1.5 threes in 26.7 minutes per game. Miller may be able to have more of a role with the Timberwolves this season with Karl-Anthony Towns and Kyle Anderson gone, but he hasn’t even turned 21 years old yet. He still has time to carve out a role, so be patient if it doesn’t come together this season.
C Karlo Matkovic (New Orleans)
Matkovic was drafted with the No. 52 pick back in 2022, but he’ll have a chance to take on a prominent role with New Orleans in his first NBA season this year. The focus has been on Yves Missi, who the Pelicans took in the first round this past summer. However, Matkovic fits much better next to Zion Williamson in the frontcourt. An early exit limited his averages, but he put up 10.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.8 blocks in 18.0 minutes per game during Summer League, which included a 25/5/1/1/3 line with two 3-pointers in one game. He may not carve out a role immediately, but be patient.
SF/PF Ryan Dunn (Phoenix)
Dunn is one of my favorite players from this year’s rookie class and landed in an extraordinary situation. Before the Suns drafted him with the No. 28 pick last summer, Dunn averaged 1.3 steals and 2.3 blocks in just 27.5 minutes per game for Virginia. Now, he’ll join a team with plenty of scorers and needs some defensive help. Dunn’s current offensive game is, to put it mildly, limited. He’ll need to find a way to be more effective on that end to play enough to make his presence felt on defense. He will have a chance to make a significant impact in limited minutes as a rookie, and if he continues to develop, he can become a fantasy star.
PG Kobe Bufkin (Atlanta)
Atlanta didn’t have much of a role for Bufkin during his rookie year, but that isn’t a reason to write him off. The Hawks have had success recently by using their G-League team as a proper farm system, with Jalen Johnson and (to a lesser extent) Vit Krejci as success stories. Bufkin averaged 23.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.3 steals, and 2.6 triples per game for the College Park Skyhawks last season, and he should see more time with Atlanta next season with Dejounte Murray gone.
PG Craig Porter Jr. (Cleveland)
Despite going undrafted last season, Porter Jr. put together some solid games when Cleveland was dealing with injuries in their backcourt. In six starts last season, he averaged 9.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.3 blocks in 27.9 minutes per game. It may take him a few years to establish a consistent role, whether that is with Cleveland or someone else. However, he has a fantasy-friendly game, as he showed when he played a significant role last season.
PG Jaden Springer (Boston)
Through his first three years in the league, Springer hasn’t been much more than a depth piece. However, the upside is still there. Over the final three games of the regular season, Springer averaged 7.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 2.7 steals in just 19.3 minutes per game. It’s a small sample size that doesn’t mean much, but if he ever ends up in a situation where he’s playing a more prominent role, he should be solid in fantasy hoops.
SG/SF Dariq Whitehead (Brooklyn)
Whitehead only played 24 minutes during his rookie year, and he has dealt with many injury issues to this point of his career. Still, his ceiling is incredibly high. He was one of the best high school players in the 2022 class, and if he can get past the injuries that plagued his freshman and rookie years, he can be an incredible player.
SG Ricky Council IV (Philadelphia)
He may not have played much, but the undrafted rookie had some big games for the 76ers last season. He followed that up with a dominant Summer League, where he averaged 18.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.7 threes per game. Don’t expect him to play a prominent role early on for Philly this year, but he is worth stashing. He took on extra minutes last year due to injuries, which could happen again this year with the number of aging veterans on their team.
PF Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Dallas)
O-Max didn’t play much after Dallas drafted him in the first round, but he still has tremendous potential. He didn’t shoot the ball well during Summer League, but he averaged 14.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.2 triples per game. The Mavs have some veteran depth in front of him that will be prioritized on a contending team. That makes this a great time to buy low on Prosper.
