If you’re new to fantasy, you might not understand how fantasy value is equated. Obviously, if you’re in a points-based league (leagues that have every stat converted to a point value), it’s pretty simple. There is a bit of a factor of position scarcity, but most of each player’s value lies in how many fantasy points per game each guy posts. Easy.
However, it’s a little more complicated in Roto-style leagues, which includes head-to-head categories format. If you play nine-category fantasy leagues, you’re focusing on points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, 3-pointers, field goal percentage AND free throw percentage. Those stats are all equal and no stat is more important than the other. You need to pay attention to every category just as much as the other. Not doing so will result in a sub-par team unless you’re knowingly flopping on a single category to strengthen the other eight categories — this is called punting and is addressed in our Draft Guide by Ryan Knaus. Not a words guy? Here’s a graphical representation:
Hey, the points are super flashy with their neat-o gradient shading, but in actuality they are worth the same portion of the pie. The bottom line here is that you shouldn’t be looking at one category more than another one. You need to look at how a player can contribute in more ways than one and not focus on the scoring. After reading this column, I’m hoping it’ll help you out in that regard.
Before we get to the fantasy side of things, it helps to know some league averages for players and/or teams. I’m more of an advanced stats guy, so I threw some of that stuff on there, too.
Mr. Average
Hey, so what does a straight-up average player look like on a stat sheet? Well, here ya go:
Height: 6’6”
Weight: 216 pounds
Age: 27
Points per game: 9.6
Rebounds per game: 3.8
Assists per game: 1.6
Steals per game: 0.7
Blocks per game: 0.3
Three-pointers per game: 0.76
Field goal attempts per game: 7.68
Free throw attempts per game: 2.0
Field goal percentage: 44.9
Free throw percentage: 75.0
Three-point percentage: 35.0
Usage Rate: 20
Total rebounding rate: 10
Effective field goal percentage: 49.6
Field goal percentage at the rim: 60.1
Field goal percentage in the paint outside of restricted area: 39.2
Field goal percentage on mid-range shots: 39.6
Pace: 93.9
OK, so those above averages are a little flawed for fantasy because not every guy has fantasy value. Therefore, those averages are pulled down by the garbage-time guys. If you’re into advanced stats like me, you’ll want to keep those numbers in mind towards the bottom.
Moving on, how about this? Let’s take a look at what an average fantasy player puts up in a standard-style league (via Basketball Monster):
Points per game: 13.8
Rebounds per game: 5.6
Assists per game: 3.0
Steals per game: 1.0
Blocks per game: 0.7
3-pointers per game: 1.0
Free throw percentage: 77.4
Field goal percentage: 46.3
Turnovers per game: 1.8
This made-up player doesn’t dominate anywhere. I mean, who you draft a guy who puts up a 14-6-3 line? Well, you should. In fact, only 13 guys put up those averages and that’s not even taking into account the other 66 percent of the pie from above. If we just add the field goal percentage of 46.3 into that equation, that number drops to just seven: LeBron James, Marc Gasol, Blake Griffin, Al Horford, Paul Millsap, DeMarcus Cousins and Kevin Durant.
Hey, so what about factoring in the free throw percentage of 77.4 and not the field goal side? Well, that is just nine players: James Harden, Jimmy Butler, Russell Westbrook, Marc Gasol, Rudy Gay, Cousins, Durant, Carmelo Anthony and Kobe Bryant. Durant, Boogie and Marc Gasol are the only three players in the NBA to hit all four of those areas. Obviously, nobody is sleeping on those guys at all.
As mentioned above, every stat is equal. That said, how about the other guys who met the average numbers for steals, blocks, threes and turnovers? Well, that number is just three players: Kawhi Leonard, Draymond Green and Danny Green. If you wanna know why we’re so high on Kawhi and Danny Green, there’s your answer. They exceed the average fantasy player on 44 percent of the pie. And in the case of Kawhi, he is above average in every category except for assists — his 2.5 dimes per game is just a shade below that 3.0. He’s a fantasy superstar. It’s also worth a quick mention that Klay Thompson barely missed hitting all four pieces of criteria because he missed turnovers by a tiny 0.1.
To take it a step further, dominating a non-scoring category can be a bit underrated. For instance, let’s look at Kawhi some more. His 2.3 steals is 2.3 times greater than the average guy’s 1.0 on fantasy value. So based on the average guy scoring 13.8 points per game, a player would have to score 31.7 points per game to put up 2.3 times the average guy for scoring. Yep, that means Russell Westbrook’s 28.1 points per game did not have as big of an impact as Kawhi’s steals. And again, Kawhi is an eight-category player and doesn’t even really hurt you in assists.
Staying on the defensive side, blocks are absolute gold. As you’ll see above, the average fantasy player is blocking just 0.7 shots per game. That means guys like Anthony Davis (2.9), Serge Ibaka (2.4), Rudy Gobert (2.3) and DeAndre Jordan (2.2) are all three times more valuable in that category than that averages guy — that’s more than Kawhi and his steals. Of course, you probably know that DJ’s awful free throw shooting negates that output. However, Brow and Ibaka are basically at those average-guy stats for seven categories — AD is missing 3-pointers and dimes while Serge is short on dimes and steals. Again, this is why these two guys are so valuable. Oh and Anthony Davis is supposed to add 3-pointers? Oh boy.
In an actual NBA game, the most points wins. Many people watching games may have been conditioned to think points are the most important thing in fantasy basketball. That’s simply not true and every fantasy owners should look at every stat relevant to success, especially on Roto-style leagues.
Happy drafting!
